48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

The frontline void for the Warriors is kind of like the U.S. school system: You can throw however much money and manpower you want at it, and it just doesn’t seem to make a whit of difference.

The latest attempt to stem this tide is Jermareo Davidson, who was originally selected 36th overall in the 2007 draft by the Warriors but was traded before the night was out to the Charlotte Bobcats, along with Jason Richardson, for Brandan Wright.

Davidson, brought in today on a 10-day contract, essentially replaces Richard Hendrix, who was cut loose on Dec. 18 when Monta Ellis had to be transferred back from the suspended list to the inactive squad. It’s a funny coincidence, since they played together at Alabama for two seasons and were the two leading scorers on the Tide’s 2006-07 team. Here are the stats from that season (and remember that Hendrix was a sophomore, while Davidson was a senior):

Many fans have questioned why on Earth the Warriors would waive Hendrix (whose $442,114 salary was fully guaranteed) without seeing him play once in a real NBA game, only to turn around two weeks later and sign another big man who could — if the team chooses to retain Davidson for the rest of the season — cost another roughly $350,000.

There’s either one of two things at play:

A) The Warriors simply need another large body to get through tonight’s contest, since Wright and Rob Kurz are both banged up, Anthony Randolph is on double-not-so-secret probation, Corey Maggette hasn’t played in nearly a month, Kelenna Azubuike will get eaten alive by Paul Millsap and Andris Biedrins and Ronny Turiaf can’t each play 48 minutes — unless the foul disqualification limit is doubled to 12.

Or. . .

B) Don Nelson likes Davidson more than he liked Hendrix. A lot more.

I can believe at least half of choice B, because Nelson clearly didn’t think much of Hendrix’s ability, right from the start. Back in October, after three weeks of working with Hendrix, before the regular season had even begun, Nelson had this to say: “He has an NBA body and NBA desire but is not NBA ready.”

Asked if Hendrix had NBA talent, Nelson said, “Not yet.”

The coach’s attitude was unmoved by what he saw when he watched Hendrix and DeMarcus Nelson play for the Bakersfield Jam in mid-December, according to Matt Steinmetz: “I think the school is still out on Hendrix. He’s got a lot of work to do. As far as the body and rebounding, he’s got two things going for him. But he’s got to learn a lot of other stuff.”

Is Davidson going to be any better? Certainly, at 6-10 and with a 7-4 wingspan — a quarter-inch longer than Wright and a full inch better than Randolph — Davidson has the potential to fill a “traditional” power forward spot.

But I’ll believe it when I see it.

Winners and losers?
The most obvious winner is Davidson, who was released in training camp this season by the Bobcats. He’s almost certainly going to get a chance to play over Randolph, and I suspect could pass Wright on the depth chart, especially if Wright keeps getting into early foul trouble.

Another potential winner is Maggette. I know Don Nelson has said he’s not going to overplay Maggette this time around, but I recall he said that about Baron Davis last season just before grinding BD into the ground with endless streams of 38-, 40- and 42-minute games. If Davidson flops, that will open the door for Maggette to get another shot at power forward, where there are oodles of minutes to be had.

And you can’t put up numbers if you don’t get minutes.

The biggest loser is also plain: DeMarcus Nelson, the Oakland native who got cut to make way for Davidson. Don Nelson said from the start that it would take a year, at a minimum, to remake DeMarcus’ shot, which is why I found it strange they kept him, let alone started him on Opening Night.

Even with the emergency revamp that took place in the D-League, Nelson’s shot is still too inaccurate and too slow to make it at this level right now, as evidenced by his shot chart:

In case those numbers are too fuzzy to read, that’s 20-35 (57.1 percent) on layups and dunks, 4-18 (22.2 percent) on everything else.

Steinmetz pointed to Randolph as being on the downside of this decision, but I don’t really agree. That theory, to me, flips the causality; it’s not that Randolph is going to play zero minutes because Davidson is on the roster — Davison is on the roster precisely because Randolph is already guaranteed not to play, a fact Nelson made clear with his public trashing of Randolph.

(Wouldn’t it be fascinating if tri-captains Biedrins, Turiaf and Stephen Jackson all went on the record tonight as saying that, since Nelson left the decision up to them and the assistant coaches, Randolph should play? How hilarious would that be?)

The biggest potential loser is Wright. Nelson has made it clear he’s willing to play Wright, but only begrudgingly, and always with a shorter leash than any of the veterans (Maggette being the most pertinent example). If Davidson can shoot with regularity the 15-footer that Wright really can’t (not with any consistency, anyways), is there any doubt he’ll be starting for this team in the near future?

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

As the rift between the Warriors coach Don Nelson and rookie forward Anthony Randolph continues to widen unabated, with the teenager effectively serving an unofficial and open-ended suspension, it’s funny to think about who might have salvaged this relationship:

Chris Mullin.

Randolph was a Mullin pick; Nelson wanted Jason Thompson but came around eventually to Mullin’s way of thinking, which was to take a potential superstar if one was available at No. 14 — and Randolph fit that bill.

It stands to figure that Mullin would be the guy best equipped to keep Randolph’s emotions in check when he would get yanked by Nelson’s short leash. After all, Mullin was the guy who served as Monta Ellis’ biggest champion during a rookie season in which coach Mike Montgomery derided his talents and kept him mostly glued to the bench until Baron Davis shut it down in March.

But Mullin has been persona non grata for a while now, unseen at practice or even at shootarounds, where he used to be a constant presence. He’s been on the road scouting college games, which should give him some great insights (on the Warriors’ dime) when he goes to work for another NBA team next season, but that’s a whole other problem.

Much has been made of the shot Randolph delivered to fellow rookie forward Rob Kurz in practice last weekend; the obvious inference to be drawn from Stephen Jackson’s reaction is that Randolph deliberately nailed Kurz.

I don’t think he would have wanted to cause serious injury, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Randolph, having reached the height of his frustration, lined up Kurz’s chin and clocked him as a stand-in for Nelson.

Nelson has been almost unremittingly critical of Randolph this season. The coach’s biggest compliment — that Randolph had passed Brandan Wright on the team’s depth chart way back in preseason — turned out to be totally false, just a motivational tool to light a fire under Wright.

On the other hand, Nelson has been effusive in his praise of Kurz from Day 1, all but pouting when Kurz was cut on Mullin’s order and then campaigning hard to get him back once Ellis was placed on the suspended list.

I’m not saying definitively that that’s what happened. But I can certainly see Kurz being the epitome of everything that’s going wrong for Randolph — at least in Randolph’s eyes — and Randolph snapping after three months and lashing out.

As for a return date for Randolph, Nelson is once again publicly demurring to other members of the organization despite his unquestioned status as the leader of basketball operations. It’s similar to the move Nelson pulled a few weeks back when Jackson was struggling terribly and needed to be told to hit the bench until his hand was healthy. Rather than doing it himself (at least at first), Nelson tried to put the onus on his other players to deliver the message to Jackson.

Matt Steinmetz posits that this is Nelson’s way of telling everyone that there’s “a major problem with Randolph” and that he’s out of ideas how to deal with the rookie.

To a more cynical observer, it could be interpreted as another way to ostracize Randolph.

Lead assistant Keith Smart had been Randolph’s closest confidant during games, the guy to whom both Randolph and Wright would go to after being unceremoniously yanked by Nelson after one or two mistakes (while Corey Maggette would make seven and still be on the floor).

Putting Smart and the other assistants in charge of deciding when Randolph can return means that relationship must change — after all, how can Smart seem fair and evenhanded if he’s still letting Randolph bend his ear?

It’s too bad there isn’t anybody else under contract who might fill that role.

Oh, right.

The Lineup Project
As for the game, there’s not much in the way of analysis needed. The Warriors should been up big at the half, but gave the Timberwolves 12 points off turnovers in the first two periods. There’s no shame at not being able to stop Al Jefferson (32 points, 10 rebounds), but letting Kevin Love rip you for 19 points and eight boards in 25 minutes is just horrendous.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

Warriors forward Brandan Wright is 6-foot-10 and endowed with a 7-foot-3 3/4 wingspan that was just a half-inch short of matching that of the No. 1 pick in his draft class, Greg Oden.

So why is it that Wright can’t seem to put those tools to use fixing the Warriors’ recurring problems on the defensive glass?

I wrote a couple of weeks ago about the Warriors’ historically bad defensive rebounding rate (they’re on pace to post the league’s worst DRR since the 1999-2000 Mavericks) and Golden State has barely ticked the meter in seven games since then, upping their mark from 67.0 to 67.1 percent.

There has been some interesting individual movement, however, as charted here:

Marco Belinelli’s minus-1.8 drop is fairly staggering, but the most distressing item, if you’re a Warriors fan, a Warriors coach or, say, a second-year Warriors forward out of North Carolina, is the erosion of Wright’s defensive rebounding. He now ranks behind Ronny Turiaf (not a huge problem, given Ronny’s improvement of late) and even Corey Maggette, which is a blazing, 40-by-40-foot red flag, given how badly Maggette fared on the boards on his one healthy leg.

Shockingly, according to data at 82games.com, the Warriors are 4.1 percent worse at defensive rebounding with Wright on the floor (63.1 to 67.2). The only guy on the team with a worse differential than that is Turiaf (62.9 to 67.6).

The problem came back into focus after the Warriors were ripped yet again by opposing rebounders — this time for 14 offensive boards and 25 second-chance points by Oklahoma City a 107-100 victory Wednesday for the NBA’s worst team.

Jeff Green had five offensive boards, and Chris Wilcox had four. Wright, meanwhile, had just three defensive rebounds, and while part of that was due to a disparity in minutes — Green played 43:47, Wilcox 36:01 and Wright 19:58 — that’s not the whole story.

Here’s a collection of observations on the wrongs of Wright’s rebounding against OKC:

1, 11:17: Wright doesn’t get credit for one, but it sure looks like he blocks Green. In any case, the miss ticks off Wright’s right hand, although it’s eventually scooped up by Belinelli.

1, 10:08: Kevin Durant beats Belinelli to the R baseline, requiring Andris Biedrins to rotate over and close off the lane. When Biedrins leaves his man, Robert Swift, Wright is stationed about 10 feet from the hoop, looking over his left shoulder at the unfolding play while reaching out with his right hand to keep track of his cover, Green. Wright stays with Green, either by choice or by simply not recognizing that doing so allows Swift to walk in from the L baseline and tap home Durant’s miss.

1, 9:31: Desmond Mason back-irons a fading 15-footer from the L elbow. Wright elevates between two teammates to take the rebound with no Thunder pressuring the play.

1, 8:43: Russell Westbrook blows by Jamal Crawford then feeds Mason, who had cut past a completely inattentive Stephen Jackson on the right baseline. Mason’s reverse layup from the left side rims out and Wright, with Green hanging out at the 3-point arc, is free to go up and collect the easy board.

1, 6:53: Mason airballs a 19-footer under duress from Belinelli and Crawford catches it in mid-air. With Green again trolling the 3-point line, Wright plants himself in the lane. That said, Wright winds up a little closer to the hoop than he probably should, since he has his area well-covered and every step further in he takes at that point just increases the potential for a long board over his head to Green. (This becomes important later on.)

2, 7:27: Fresh off the bench, Wright provides good help to stop Wilcox’s drive on the left baseline. Ronny Turiaf recovers and slaps the shot off the backboard. Wright should have the ensuing rebound, but while he’s trying to corral it on the bounce, Westbrook gets a hand on the ball, which winds up going out of bounds off Wright for another Oklahoma City possession. The Thunder cash in with a jumper by Earl Watson.

2, 3:22: Watson misses a running right hook 6 feet out on the left side of the lane. Since Biedrins went to contest the shot, it’s up to Wright to outfight Wilcox for the board. Wright has the edge, but once again can’t control the ball, which bounces off his hands and fortuitously lands in Jackson’s instead.

2, 2:02: Watson misses a pullup J from 19 feet. But both Biedrins and Wright are heading to the rim when the shot, well short, clanks hard off the front iron and goes over their head to Wilcox, who pump fakes and blows by Biedrins for the layup.

2, 1:37: Wilcox biffs an open layup. Wright taps the ball off the rim, but when he tries to control it, Wilcox bats it away. The ball winds up going to Jackson.

3, 9:20: Durant misses a pullup 17 feet R wing. Wright has Green easily boxed out on the strong side, and when Durant’s shot comes back out on the R block, Wright has another unpressured board.

I know it’s a cliché to say that great rebounders latch onto a ball and never let go, but cliché’s are often just over-used truths. And that’s why the most concerning thing here is the number of times — four, in less than 20 minutes — Wright got a hand on the ball but was not able to come up with full possession. All the athleticism in the world doesn’t do you any good if you can’t close out the deal and finish a defensive stop for your team.

The Lineup Project

As bad as Wright’s rebounding was, the Warriors were still worse off without him on the floor, which was prompted in part because of Wright’s foul trouble (two in the first quarter, two more just 3:12 into the third period). Wright’s absence was all the more keenly felt because Don Nelson appears to have lost faith in Anthony Randolph after the rookie had two horrible turnovers in the first quarter against the Lakers. Since then, we haven’t seen him play a minute that mattered (he did come back for garbage time in Staples).

That left Nellie without many options, and he chose Kelenna Azubuike as his power forward for more than half the game (24:23) rather than use Turiaf there. Turiaf did make a cameo appearance at the 4, starting the fourth quarter up front with Biedrins, but that stint lasted less than 2 1/2 minutes — and Azubuike manned that spot the rest of the way.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

By now, you’ve undoubtedly read Marcus Thompson’s blog item regarding the report from Stephen Jackson that Baron Davis wants to be traded back to the Bay less than six months after bolting to go back home.

Aside from the usual eye-rolling that comes with most Baron pronouncements, there’s a very specific and immoveable obstacle to this scenario: BD can’t seriously think that the Warriors (i.e., team president Robert Rowell) — who didn’t want to be on the hook for four fully guaranteed years because of concerns about Davis’ health and motivation — are suddenly going to be willing to pay for FIVE seasons.

Here, then, is a helpful guide to 30 things more likely to happen than Baron Davis coming back to the Bay:

1) Barack Obama arrives at the White House on the afternoon of Jan. 20, spots George Bush ducking out the back door, tosses him the keys and says, “You can keep it. I just got Hank Paulson’s last report, and I’m outta here.”

2) Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter each play 82 games — in the same season.

3) Clay Bennett goes bankrupt and the City of Seattle picks up the Thunder for $42,598 plus court costs in an Oklahoma City repo auction.

4) Warrior fans make it through a broadcast without being reminded that they’re missing (insert number here) points per game.

5) Larry Brown quits the Bobcats out of sheer frustration with Sean May.

(Wait, that one could actually happen.)

6) The L wakes up to the fact that Kevin Garnett has crossed the line from “hard-nosed” to “wantonly overaggressive” and finally takes some punitive action.

7) Allen Iverson takes two weeks off from the Pistons, undergoes 274 laser treatments and comes back without any tattoos.

8 ) Jose Calderon misses a free throw. But only one.

9) Gilbert Arenas announces that he’s quitting the NBA to switch to blogging full-time.

10) Jamal Crawford starts to play lockdown defense.

11) Barry Bonds is named the San Francisco Giants’ new strength and conditioning coach.

12) Kobe Bryant drops 71 on the Suns, then tells a live ABC audience: “Shaq, your ass taste like chicken. At least, that’s what Steve Nash said.”

13) Al Harrington tells Jackson that he’d like to come back to the Warriors, too.

14) Erick Dampier acknowledges that he hasn’t played up to the seven-year, $73 million deal he signed in 2004 and gives Mark Cuban an oversized posterboard check for $30 million in a halftime ceremony at a Mavericks home game.

15) Cuban’s attorneys immediately take half as a retainer.

16) The San Jose Sharks turn yet another glittering regular season into a Stanley Cup title.

17) Stephon Marbury returns to the Knicks at the All-Star break, scores 22.8 points per game the rest of the way and leads New York to the playoffs.

18) Corey Maggette misses 17 games after tearing his lat during a particularly vigorous weight-training session.

19) Eric Gordon takes a rainbow jumper that gets caught among the banners at the TD Banknorth Arena and never comes back to the court.

20) Thanks to a general outcry from critics, “ER” gets renewed.

21) Newspapers in the United States report a 450 percent jump in readership for 2008 over 2007.

22) Dikembe Mutombo stays retired.

23) Dennis Rodman doesn’t.

24) Gregg Popovich promises to dress like Gandalf for the duration of the Spurs’ playoff run.

Will Pop . . .

. . . pick up pipe-smoking as well?

25) Derrick Rose actually breaks Andre Miller’s ankle.

26) Kerri Walsh announces that because it’s too hard to choose a new partner while Misty May-Treanor recovers from her torn Achilles tendon, she’s just going to play solo on the AVP Tour.

And she still wins every tournament.

27) The luxurious manes of Pau and Marc Gasol are revealed to be nothing more than wild wigs when Ron Artest yanks on Pau’s hair during one particularly intense Rockets-Lakers confrontation.

28) Kevin McHale goes 1-62 as a coach. AND STILL KEEPS HIS JOB.

29) No, really: Jamal Crawford starts to play lockdown defense.

30) The Clippers wake up on the morning after the trade deadline and find that not only is Davis still clad in red and blue, but they also still employ Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

OAKLAND — Warriors coach Don Nelson knew what other teams thought when they came into Oracle Arena.

“Not being able to win and not being able to do what we want in the fourth quarter . . . good teams figure they can beat us,” Nelson said.

With Stephen Jackson back, that no longer can be considered a safe assumption for Warriors opponents. Just ask the Boston Celtics after Jackson dropped 15 of his game-high 28 points on them in the fourth quarter of Golden State’s 99-89 win on Friday.

As mentioned in the live thread, this was the perfect setup for an underdog to knock off the Celtics: Not only was it the second half of an all-road back-to-back for Boston, but the Warriors also had 72 hours between games.

What tipped the scales, however, was Jackson’s return from a four-game absence to allow his sprained left hand — an injury that coincided with a brutal 26.9 percent shooting stretch (21-for-78) — to finally heal.

More specifically, it was Jackson’s fourth-quarter presence that made the difference. After a first-quarter individual showdown with Paul Pierce that ended in pretty much a draw (Jackson had 11 points, Pierce 13), Jackson disappeared in the second and third periods, shooting a combined 1-for-5 and committing five turnovers.

But there were signs of a recovery in the third. Jackson didn’t cough the ball up once in the final 17:45 of the second half. His one make came with the shot clock in single digits and against some tight defense from Pierce [3, 3:19]. And his specialty, the touch pass, led to an open 3-pointer for Marco Belinelli [3, 0:55.7].

When Jackson launched an ill-conceived drive down the lane, was blocked by Leon Powe and unleashed a frustration foul on Brian Scalabrine in the scramble for the rebound [4, 9:15], it seemed like Friday’s top storyline would be how the captain was still not fit for duty.

A layup off a crisp entry pass from Anthony Morrow got Jackson rolling [4, 8:42], and he didn’t stop the rest of the way.

The Warriors trailed by five before that bucket; they led by nine a little less than 4 1/2 minutes later, with Jackson scoring 13 of Golden State’s 18 points and assisting on three more — a trey from Kelenna Azubuike [4, 7:46].

Jackson drained a pair of 3-pointers of his own in that stretch, one with Pierce’s hand in his face on the left wing [4, 7:03], the other after getting sprung from a nice back pick by Belinelli [4, 5:32]. He undoubtedly got lucky when he rolled in a 10-foot fadeaway over Kevin Garnett to give the Warriors their first lead since less than 3 minutes into the game [4, 6:03], but Jackson is a guy who, frankly, makes his own luck sometimes.

I’d be fascinated to see what Jackson’s shooting percentage is on attempts where the Warriors are within five points of the opposition (either ahead or behind) in the second half. Anecdotally, I think it would be far higher than the 38.5 percent he’s put up as a whole this season.

The Lineup Project
Catching up after the Christmas holiday, we have three games’ worth of data and some new year-to-date numbers:

12/22/08: Magic 113, Warriors 81

12/23/08: Heat 96, Warriors 88

12/26/08: Warriors 99, Celtics 89

Year-to-date through 31 games (per 48 minutes)

Let’s give credit where it’s due: Without the performance of the Small group against Boston on Friday, the Warriors don’t even come close to mounting that comeback. Golden State was helped by Doc Rivers’ insistence on sticking with his own small group, despite the obvious fact that they were dog-tired and thus unable to hang with the hosts’ unit, but that shouldn’t detract from the quality of Warriors’ smallball-driven comeback.

With the blowout in Orlando and two other subpar performances, the Medium lineup (two bigs, not including any Turiaf-Biedrins pairings, plus three wings) has come back to Earth and the Smalls have gotten somewhat closer to the team totals (Golden State is averaging 103.7 ppg while giving up 109.5 for a delta of minus-5.8).

Monta’s return a month off?
Don Nelson said Friday that he didn’t expect injured guard Monta Ellis to play — or possibly even practice — for at least a month. I’ve heard Jan. 15 knocked around by members of the organization as a potential return time, but that’s been a very fluid date from the get-go.

Whenever Ellis does come back, it will be interesting to see how the Warriors’ standing in the standings factors into the decision.

As of today, it looks like a nine-team race for eight playoff spots in the West, with the Warriors already 9 games behind two teams tied for seventh: Dallas (17-12) and Utah (18-13).

On the other hand, Golden State is already 5 1/2 games behind Oklahoma City in the race for the other extreme — the worst record and corresponding highest concentration of pingpong balls in the 2009 draft lottery.

Twenty years ago, back when fantasy sports involved buying USA Today every Tuesday and crunching your own stats on a Mac SE (with a 30-meg hard drive!), one of the originators of the field — Dan Okrent, who would go on to become the New York Times’ first ombudsman, among other accomplishments in journalism — described a place he dubbed “The Fenokee Triangle,” where you’re never quite good enough to compete for the top spot, yet never bad enough to want to tear things down entirely.

It feels like the Warriors are at risk of once again taking up residence in the NBA’s version of that spot, winning too many games to grab an impact player, but not enough to be anything more than first-round fodder for the Lakers, Spurs or Hornets.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net