48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

By now, you’ve undoubtedly read Marcus Thompson’s blog item regarding the report from Stephen Jackson that Baron Davis wants to be traded back to the Bay less than six months after bolting to go back home.

Aside from the usual eye-rolling that comes with most Baron pronouncements, there’s a very specific and immoveable obstacle to this scenario: BD can’t seriously think that the Warriors (i.e., team president Robert Rowell) — who didn’t want to be on the hook for four fully guaranteed years because of concerns about Davis’ health and motivation — are suddenly going to be willing to pay for FIVE seasons.

Here, then, is a helpful guide to 30 things more likely to happen than Baron Davis coming back to the Bay:

1) Barack Obama arrives at the White House on the afternoon of Jan. 20, spots George Bush ducking out the back door, tosses him the keys and says, “You can keep it. I just got Hank Paulson’s last report, and I’m outta here.”

2) Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter each play 82 games — in the same season.

3) Clay Bennett goes bankrupt and the City of Seattle picks up the Thunder for $42,598 plus court costs in an Oklahoma City repo auction.

4) Warrior fans make it through a broadcast without being reminded that they’re missing (insert number here) points per game.

5) Larry Brown quits the Bobcats out of sheer frustration with Sean May.

(Wait, that one could actually happen.)

6) The L wakes up to the fact that Kevin Garnett has crossed the line from “hard-nosed” to “wantonly overaggressive” and finally takes some punitive action.

7) Allen Iverson takes two weeks off from the Pistons, undergoes 274 laser treatments and comes back without any tattoos.

8 ) Jose Calderon misses a free throw. But only one.

9) Gilbert Arenas announces that he’s quitting the NBA to switch to blogging full-time.

10) Jamal Crawford starts to play lockdown defense.

11) Barry Bonds is named the San Francisco Giants’ new strength and conditioning coach.

12) Kobe Bryant drops 71 on the Suns, then tells a live ABC audience: “Shaq, your ass taste like chicken. At least, that’s what Steve Nash said.”

13) Al Harrington tells Jackson that he’d like to come back to the Warriors, too.

14) Erick Dampier acknowledges that he hasn’t played up to the seven-year, $73 million deal he signed in 2004 and gives Mark Cuban an oversized posterboard check for $30 million in a halftime ceremony at a Mavericks home game.

15) Cuban’s attorneys immediately take half as a retainer.

16) The San Jose Sharks turn yet another glittering regular season into a Stanley Cup title.

17) Stephon Marbury returns to the Knicks at the All-Star break, scores 22.8 points per game the rest of the way and leads New York to the playoffs.

18) Corey Maggette misses 17 games after tearing his lat during a particularly vigorous weight-training session.

19) Eric Gordon takes a rainbow jumper that gets caught among the banners at the TD Banknorth Arena and never comes back to the court.

20) Thanks to a general outcry from critics, “ER” gets renewed.

21) Newspapers in the United States report a 450 percent jump in readership for 2008 over 2007.

22) Dikembe Mutombo stays retired.

23) Dennis Rodman doesn’t.

24) Gregg Popovich promises to dress like Gandalf for the duration of the Spurs’ playoff run.

Will Pop . . .

. . . pick up pipe-smoking as well?

25) Derrick Rose actually breaks Andre Miller’s ankle.

26) Kerri Walsh announces that because it’s too hard to choose a new partner while Misty May-Treanor recovers from her torn Achilles tendon, she’s just going to play solo on the AVP Tour.

And she still wins every tournament.

27) The luxurious manes of Pau and Marc Gasol are revealed to be nothing more than wild wigs when Ron Artest yanks on Pau’s hair during one particularly intense Rockets-Lakers confrontation.

28) Kevin McHale goes 1-62 as a coach. AND STILL KEEPS HIS JOB.

29) No, really: Jamal Crawford starts to play lockdown defense.

30) The Clippers wake up on the morning after the trade deadline and find that not only is Davis still clad in red and blue, but they also still employ Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

It’s looking more and more like the Warriors are going to, once again, end up disintegrating into a cloud of debris.

If, as ESPN’s Chris Broussard says, coach Don Nelson told rookie forward Anthony Randolph to have his agent explore potential trades, then things have come unglued to a point that would probably be unprecedented in franchise history . . . if only this franchise wasn’t the Warriors.

Is Broussard’s report accurate? I don’t know. Can I see Nelson saying something like that to Randolph? Absolutely. Without question. When Nellie gets down on a player — consistently down, not just for a two-week stretch of juggling the rotation or somesuch — it’s pretty much impossible to dig yourself out of that hole.

I had an interesting conversation recently with a Nelson confidant about the Warriors’ pick in this year’s draft. This person said that Nelson’s much-hyped interest in Jason Thompson — so well-hyped that it seemed it could only be a smokescreen — was very, very real. In fact, Nelson had to be talked down from Thompson and into Randolph by Chris Mullin and others in the days leading up to the draft.

In retrospect, I can see why Nelson was so much more interested in Thompson, who was taken by the Kings with the No. 12 selection. Thompson doesn’t have the 3-point range that Al Harrington offered, but he has a decent enough mid-range jumper and was ready to go after four years at Rider — meaning that having Thompson on board would have made it that much easier to trade Harrington before the season began.

It also helps to explain why Nelson — again, assuming Broussard’s reporting is correct — can so cavalierly toss aside the No. 14 pick in Randolph.

That being said, it’s one thing for the coach to decide he has no use for a player. But when that coach makes it so patently obvious to all other clubs, how you possibly get decent value? Nelson’s unbridled disdain for Marcus Williams has made it such that the Warriors can’t even sell him off for 50 cents on the dollar.

Given that fact, why shop Randolph now? Why not give him some playing time and showcase him this month before trying to dump him? Why not wait until the summer, let him put up some big numbers in Vegas and build back some stock? It just makes no sense.

I’ve said it before in this space: The best move the Warriors have made in the second Nelson era — the eight-player trade with Indiana — was born of three competing desires all landing on the same deal. There was team president Robert Rowell, looking to regain lost flexibility under the salary cap. There was Nelson, delivering a harsh truth about the games of two former centerpieces of the roster, Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy. And there was Mullin, who had been coveting Harrington for years and finally took advantage of the Pacers’ angst to get him — and added the guy who turned out to be the best player in the deal, Stephen Jackson.

Now that Mullin has been marginalized, Pete D’Alessandro whacked and nobody left to rein Nelson in other than Rowell, it’s unclear where this team is going. But it sure seems likely it’s going to be in pieces before its arrival.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

At a Warriors practice last week, Golden State captain Stephen Jackson stood on the sideline talked for roughly 10 minutes with team president Robert Rowell and minority owner Michael Marks.

I have no idea what the gist of the conversation was, but Rowell needs to have another meeting with Jackson, with one simple message:

Sit down until you’re healthy.

Like Oscar De La Hoya’s cornermen after watching him get pummeled for eight rounds at the hands of Manny Pacquiao last week, someone has to step in and say it, because Jackson refuses to admit what’s obvious to everyone — that his injured left hand is crippling his effectiveness on the floor right now.

Jackson showed reporters this week how his middle finger is misaligned, and said that the ligaments had been pushed out of place when he originally incurred the injury against Boston on Nov. 26 (his hand got caught in a Celtic’s jersey as Jackson tried to fight through a screen). Nevertheless, he steadfastly refuses to ask off the floor in games, even after he takes a shot and can clearly be seen between plays rubbing the hand to try and ease the pain.

The team has not given any indication that Jackson needs anything other than rest to get better. If that’s the case, then the rest should start immediately.

Jackson was 1-for-13 from the floor in the Warriors’ 123-105 loss to the Nuggets on Saturday. Teams are overplaying his right hand now, knowing that he can’t get anything going on a dribble with his left.

That’s bad enough, but let’s be honest: Even if Jackson had been playing at his 2007-08 level against the Nuggets on Saturday, does anyone really think that would have turned the tide? On a night where Don Nelson’s top three possibilities at power forward — Corey Maggette, Brandan Wright and Ronny Turiaf — are all off the floor? Maybe an 18-point defeat becomes an eight-point margin. But there’s not much more to it than that.

The only way the Warriors are going to make the playoffs — assuming you’re not joining the Tank Brigade after a quarter of the season — is if they win a stunning proportion of the games once Monta Ellis comes back. We’re talking a 65, 70, 75 percent proportion.

Running Jackson out for 31 minutes on back-to-back nights in games where the Warriors already have next to no hope because of their myriad other injuries is time he could be spending recovering. And getting ready so that when Ellis returns, it’s with a full-strength Jackson alongside.

Notes
Jamal Crawford may or may not be the reason why the Warriors’ defense went from “merely poor” to “catastrophically bad” in the past few weeks. But there’s no reason whatsoever why he should stand around near halfcourt and watch, dumbstruck, while Kenyon Martin streaks past him to set up a breakaway dunk after Chauncey Billups collects a missed 3-pointer and launches a lead pass. At least give an effort. Act like you care. . . . I’m going to search through the tape later today with an eye on Rob Kurz’s performance. I will stipulate that he was one of only two Warriors that could hit any kind of shot, but this no-mistake defense I keep hearing about was belied by two plays that jumped out on the first viewing: Kurz got pushed down the lane by Nene on the very first play of the game, which allowed Kurz’s cover, Martin, to cram home a dunk. (Thankfully, Kurz turned away at the last second, otherwise Martin would’ve given him the full Frederic Weis treatment.) Then, 90 seconds into the second half, Kurz came from the right block all the way across the lane to try to provide C.J. Watson help covering Anthony on the left wing. Except all that did was leave Martin open to tap home Anthony’s alley-oop pass. . . . Given that he couldn’t even get into a 25-point blowout until the final 3:02, it’s pretty clear that third-year guard Marcus Williams is the leader in the clubhouse in terms of being the player the Warriors to shed after Monta Ellis’ suspension ends on Dec. 17. Barring a very poor showing by DeMarcus Nelson on Wednesday while he fills in for Watson (who will be attending a family funeral), the only question would seem to be whether the Warriors can salvage a second-round pick for Williams, or just have to cut him loose with no compensation at all. . . . Anthony Morrow needs to learn to stay home when matched up with a 3-point gunner such as J.R. Smith.

The Lineup Project
Once again, no real chance to go big without Turiaf and Wright in the building.

Lineup               GS      DEN      Time
Large                   0        0          0:00
Turiaf-Biedrins      0         0          0:00
Medium               41       49        18:56
Small                  64      74         29:04

Here’s a season-long update, per 48 minutes

Lineup                GS      OPP      +/-
Large                   99.7     92.5      +7.2
Turiaf-Biedrins      107.1    97.4      +9.7
Medium               103.6    109.6    -6.0
Small                  107.3    116.6    -9.3

Without Monta. . .
7-19, here they come. Only two games remain, and both of them, like the Denver game, were predicted to be defeats.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

The Forbes list of NBA Team Valuations for 2008 is out, and the Warriors are continuing their ascent. In the last three seasons, they’ve gone from No. 27 (worth an estimated $267 million at the conclusion of the 2005-06 campaign) to No. 21 ($309M after ’06-’07) and now to No. 18 ($335M after ’07-’08).

So, what does the future hold in store for Golden State owner Chris Cohan’s balance sheet, as crafted by team president Robert Rowell?

In the short term, there’s most likely another season of growth coming, even with the overall economy stumbling as badly as it has.

After that is when things will truly get interesting.

The Warriors posted pre-tax earnings of $14.2 million for ’07-’08, far and away the highest such number in the last dozen years, which is all the data I could lay my hands on at short notice. (I suspect it could very well be the most the Warriors have ever made in a single season, but I can’t confirm that.)

Nevertheless, I think that profit number has legitimate potential to go even higher next season. Why? Glad you asked. Here are a couple of the biggest impacts I see on the 2008-09 books:

(Please note: These are my best estimates and guesstimates, based on the available data. They are certainly not written in stone. And it may very well be that the team, armed with much more detailed data, is expecting a different outcome. With those caveats, then. . .)

Negative impacts
Player salaries, which cost the Warriors $65 million last year (including bonuses and incentives), are currently set to run approximately $2.5 million higher this season, not including any extras. I’ll guess that that figure will land somewhere between $4 to $5 million higher when all the premiums are factored in.

Also, Golden State’s average attendance has fallen. It’s not as precipitous as in some places around the league — Hello? Memphis? Anybody there? Elvis? B.B.? Three 6 Mafia? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? — but it’s still noticeable.

Through eight games, the Warriors are drawing 18,571 fans, on average. That’s a 5.4 percent decrease from last season’s average of 19,630, but since attendance historically is lower in November and December (when football is still in season), a better apples-to-apples comparison is to look at the first eight games of 2007-08. The Warriors drew 19,408 in those games, meaning that they’re running 4.3 percent behind last season’s pace.

Based on the number of open seats spotted in the upper reaches of the Arena so far this year — and the fact that many of the higher-value lower bowl seats were renewed as full-season ticket packages back in March, before the economy tanked — I would estimate many of the tickets that make up that 4.3 percent decrease are on the cheaper end of the price scale. But since we don’t know for sure, let’s use the Warriors’ average ticket price for 2008-09, as per the Team Marketing Report: $39.

Using that count — .043 (attendance decline) x 19,630 (last season’s average attendance) x $39 (average ticket price) x 41 (home games) — the Warriors are on pace for a drop of approximately $1.35 million in gate receipts.

That’s a total shortfall of $5.35 to $6.35 million that the Warriors have to make up.

Positive impacts
The Warriors (and all teams) will be getting a bigger slice of TV revenues because the league’s new eight-year contracts with ABC, ESPN and TNT have kicked in this season, bumping the league’s average annual payout to $930 million (or $31 million shares if split evenly between all 30 teams) from $767 million ($25.6 million), representing a gain of $4.4 million for Golden State.

Golden State may be filling fewer seats than last season, but the ones they are filling come with a higher price tag after a 25.3 percent increase to the average ticket cost over 2007-08. Last season, with an average attendance of 19,630 and an average cost of $31.13 per ticket, the team took in $25.1 million in ticket revenues.

(A sidebar here: Forbes lists the Warriors’ total gate receipts from 2007-08 as $44 million, with a footnote that the figure “includes club seats.” I suspect that means that revenue from luxury boxes, which adds up quickly given their price tags, is not part of the cost-per-ticket equation and represents most of that delta.)

Plugging in the numbers for this season — $39 average ticket cost x 18,784 expected average attendance (based on that 4.3 percent projected drop) x 41 home games — give us a total of $30 million. That’s an increase of $4.9 million.

Now, it’s probable that, if the Warriors crater in the standings, the 4.3 percent drop will accelerate. But based on what’s available to us now, adding the TV and ticket bumps, you get a projection of $9.3 million in increased revenue, with a $3 to $4 million increase in profit compared to last season.

So for 2008-09, the Warriors look like they have a solid chance of matching last season’s rollicking financial success.

Beyond that, however, is an open question. Will all those season ticket holders come back once 2009-10 renewal notices start rolling out in February and March? Unless President-elect Obama has some kind of miracle up his sleeve, I don’t think so. Discretionary income is already drying up.

Additionally, a team’s profit in one season is often a reflection of its success in the preceding year. According to Forbes, even with all the hoopla surrounding the 16-5 finish and the playoff series victory over Dallas, the Warriors cleared only $1.3 million pre-tax in 2006-07. The real profit wave hit the books last season.

That means that if the Warriors do tumble to a 35-47 record (or something worse) this season, it’s probably not going to show up on the books until 2009-10.

One other economic note:

** Back in 2005-06, the Warriors had the league’s lowest average ticket prices by a wide margin, at $23.82. That was almost $5 cheaper than the second-most inexpensive team (the New Orleans Hornets, at $28.61) and just slightly more than half of the league average ($45.92).

Since then, the team has raised prices for three successive seasons, each time by a larger percentage: 11.8 percent for 2006-07 (to an average of $26.63), 16.9 percent for 2007-08 ($31.13) and 25.3 percent for 2008-09 ($39.00).

That means the difference between the average ticket this season and the average ticket three years ago is 63.7 percent.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

Henry Abbott over at TrueHoop wrote a nice (and completely correct) piece about how the boxscore may have fooled people into thinking Greg Oden had a great game against the Warriors on Tuesday, when in point of fact just the opposite was true, and Portland probably would have been better served to keep him on the bench.

The twist? Abbott, a true Blazer fanatic, had NO PROBLEM with the decision to keep Oden out there.

“I’m thrilled at Nate McMillan’s conviction to spend time on Oden, and to keep featuring him even if it costs the team games. Even if the costs are non-trivial, getting Greg Oden confident is one of the best investments a coach can make, because he’s only showing us a fraction of what’s to come.”

I bring this up not just as a means for sucking up to one of the NBA blogosphere’s tastemakers (although that’s always a nice side benefit).

It’s interesting because I think Abbott’s sentiments match the feelings of Warrior fans who want to see more of a certain second-year forward. Substitute Don Nelson’s name for McMillan’s and Brandan Wright’s name for Oden, and you have a pretty good idea of how that faction of Golden State’s faithful look at this team right now.

The only problem?

Nelson is in thrall to the mismatch. It’s practically an addiction for him. And that’s why the allure of playing Corey Maggette, all 6-foot-6 of him, at power forward is just too strong for Nelson to withstand.

Taking Al Harrington out of the equation — thus leaving Nelson with the options of playing Wright 30 minutes a night at the 4 vs. Maggette — just cleared the way for Nelson to go small.

(Cynical folks might think that’s why Nellie was oh-so-willing to give Harrington as many minutes as possible in the first few games: Either Harrington would give him great production, which makes Nelson’s job easier, or he would bomb completely, helping Nelson usher Maggette into his new spot.)

Team president Robert Rowell said that he gave Nelson an extension through the 2010-11 season in part so that “it wasn’t all about picking up those 53 wins (to catch Lenny Wilkens as the NBA’s all-time leader in coaching victories) all within the first 53 games of the season.”

But that’s exactly the way Nelson coaches. He’s said it himself: “I’m only going to bring the guys along that are ready to play in an NBA game.” He’s never been a guy who would give a youngster 20 minutes a night just for the sake of development when a game can still be won.

And Nelson is convinced, at least for now, that Maggette at the 4 will win him more games.

Chris Mullin said to me way back at the start of training camp that Wright’s biggest problem was his lack of a specific identity as a player. He had no facet of his game that was so outstanding it would demand playing time for him, night after night.

“Brandan is still feeling out what that is,” Mullin said. “He does flashes of rebounding, he does block a shot, he does put it on the floor in the open court and make a nice move. He’s got to find something – and this is not really (specific) to Nellie or myself – that the coach really feels comfortable that he’s going to do, that he can rely on. . . .

“He’s got to figure out what staple of his game is going to make him Brandan Wright. What’s that going to be?”

The biggest asset for Maggette, on the other hand, is easily identifiable: He is strong enough and armed with a quick enough first step to bull his way past most forwards and earn at least a pair of free throws (which he converts at 81.9 percent lifetime), if not an and-one situation.

Nelson knows what he’s going to get from Maggette, and how he can exploit that trick to his best advantage. There is no such certainty with Wright at this point.

Eventually, opponents will solve the Maggette-at-4 puzzle. Or they’ll make it too expensive by punishing Maggette at the defensive end. Or he’ll just pop another hamstring and be forced to sit out for two weeks. (Or maybe Kelenna Azubuike’s sprained left knee, which could keep him out of Friday’s game, will force Nelson to move Jackson and Maggette back to the 2/3 spots, thus putting Wright back in the mix.)

Until then, however, Wright’s fans should be prepared for some disappointing box scores.

** The Anthony Morrow legend just keeps building. Witness the ever-growing compendium of Anthony Morrow Facts here.

I’m a sucker for the pop culture references such as, “Agent Smith now realizes that the sound of inevitability is the swish of an Anthony Morrow shot.”

Here’s my contribution:

Kobayashi once tried to threaten Anthony Morrow into missing a shot. Morrow said, “I am Keyser Soze,” then swished it.