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Golden State Warriors & NBA analysis from Geoff Lepper

  • Dec
    18

    By Geoff Lepper
    48minutes.net

    Warriors center Ronny Turiaf has an easy fix for Golden State’s problems when it comes to securing defensive rebounds:

    “Plain and simple, go get the ball,” Turiaf said. “That’s it.”

    Except that hasn’t been it, of course. Not by a long shot.

    Including last night’s horrific 20-offensive rebound performance for the Indiana Pacers in their 127-210 victory, Golden State has chalked up a defensive rebound rate (DRR) of just 67.0 percent through its first 26 games.

    The DRR — a team’s defensive boards divided by the sum of a team’s defensive boards and the opponents’ offensive rebounds — is a rough ratio of how many defensive rebounds a team gets (it doesn’t include team boards, so it’s not as exact as you would want).

    At 67.0, Golden State ranks last in the NBA by a wide, wide margin. There’s a chart to illustrate that point below, but here’s some specifics as well: The Kings are 29th in the league at 70.5 percent and the league average is 73.1. The top-ranked Spurs are at 77.8.

    Chart of all 30 NBA teams' Defensive Rebound Rate

    Consider: Even if the Warriors closed half the gap between their DRR and the league average . . . they’d still be the league’s worst, at 70.05. So the data begs the question:

    How bad are the Warriors, historically speaking?

    Well, how about this: They’re the second-worst defensive rebounding team this century.

    OK, I realize the 21st century is only in its ninth year, but still, the last time a team posted a DRR lower than 67.0 was in 1999-2000, when the Dallas Mavericks — put together and coached by familiar, white-haired adherent of small ball by the name of Don Nelson — pulled down 66.1 percent of their opportunities.

    In an attempt to solve that team’s failings — both on the floor and at the ticket office — Nelson and new Mavericks owner Mark Cuban brought in a 38-year-old Dennis Rodman. Though the Worm helped somewhat — Dallas’ DRR in 12 games with him was about 3.5 points better than in the 70 without — it wasn’t enough to make it worth dealing with his particular brand of crazy.

    I’m sure that Rodman would be game to pull down more NBA coin, but let’s assume for the moment that a washed-up, 47-year-old ex-husband to Carmen Electra isn’t the answer for Nelson & Co. this time around.

    What can the Warriors do to solve this problem, which keeps biting them at critical junctures (such as the possession Wednesday where Jeff Foster simply bulled over Jamal Crawford, collected his own miss and allowed Stephen Graham to give the Pacers a second-chance layup for a five-point lead)?

    “Well, it’s a very complicated thing,” Nelson said last week. “It’s not just one thing. There’s lots of different coverages, there’s lots of different assignments. It takes a while before it’s a natural thing for young players.”

    It’s interesting to look at the Warriors’ individual DRR numbers this season compared to last season, when Golden State still ranked last but had a 70.3 mark that was at least within hailing distance of the rest of the league.

    In 2007-08:

    Defensive Rebound Rate for Golden State Warriors in 2007-08

    In 2008-09:

    Defensive Rebound Rate for Golden State Warriors in 2008-09

    A few things that stand out: Harrington’s dramatic slide (-5.2) reiterates just how little he cared to toil in a Warriors uniform this season.

    That was just one piece of the across-the-board decrease for returning players, such as Wright (-2.7), Azubuike (-2.3) and Jackson (-1.1).

    Turiaf attributes some of the team’s problem to a habit of standing around and watching Biedrins (third in the league at 12.0 rpg): “Because Goose gets so many of them, sometimes we’re like, ‘OK, Goose, just go get it.’ We become somewhat complacent; ‘You average 13 a game, so we’ll just box out for you.’”

    Yet even Biedrins is down 1.3 percent.

    It’s been fun to watch the Phoenix Suns play this season and witness, even as they’re disintegrating because of Steve Nash’s disenchantment with new coach Terry Porter, Matt Barnes having a career year. Much like Joni Mitchell’s “Big Yellow Taxi,” where you “don’t know what you’ve got ‘til it’s gone,” Barnes’ tenacity on the glass has become so much more noticeable now that it’s not here, replaced by the pale imitation that has been Corey Maggette’s work as a “power” forward.

    Watson deserves praise for his concentrated effort on rebounding, which has been rewarded with greater numbers, and so to a lesser extent does Belinelli. And, not to beat on a dead horse, while Randolph may have his problems in making the transition from teen-ager to NBA pro, going up and securing loose balls is not one of them.

    But Crawford is as bad as he was advertised to be. And Turiaf, the Warriors’ alleged answer to such bangers as Utah’s Paul Millsap (20.4 career DRR) and Dallas’ Brandon Bass (17.4), is at a career-low number, continuing a slide that has not stopped since his rookie year: from 19.0 to 18.3 to 15.4 to 13.6.

    There are a number of factors that lead back to different causes. That Golden State’s guards are doing a remarkably poor job at keeping opposing ball-handlers from turning the corner seemingly at will means that Turiaf and Biedrins are constantly pulled out of prime rebounding position to provide last-line-of-defense help around the rim. Nor is it helping that wings are supposed to be heading downcourt, seeking out early offense in Nelson’s system, rather than dealing with the heavy lifting of defensive rebounding.

    Turiaf claims it’s all mental, and doesn’t blame even the Warriors’ near obsession with a small-ball setup that the coach keeps saying didn’t work because the opponent’s small squad was just flat-out better.

    “It has nothing to do with not being strong enough, being small, blah-blah-blah,” Turiaf said. “It has nothing to do with that. . . . Regardless of what happens, just go get the ball. I’d rather have a turnover — I don’t think coach is going to agree with me on that one — but I’d rather have a turnover with two guys going to get the ball than not getting it. That’s pretty much it.

    “Just go get it.”

    Hendrix goes, Williams stays
    The Warriors couldn’t bring themselves to pay Marcus Williams almost $1 million not to show up for the rest of this season, so they cut rookie forward Richard Hendrix instead to make room for Monta Ellis’ move off the suspended list. The decision saved the team costs the team roughly $600,000 less than losing Williams and makes sense from one perspective: There is no way Don Nelson was going to use either of those two players the rest of the way, so the team simply chose the option that represents less wasted money.

    The Lineup Project
    I don’t want to give anyone a stroke, so I’ll just point out that the 7:15 in the Medium line encompassed Brandan Wright’s entire evening.

    Lineup data for Golden State game No. 26: Pacers 127, Warriors 120

    Without Monta. . .
    So it’s 7-19, then. I thought I was being pretty good at tamping any optimism when I wrote that the Warriors would be 9-17 by the time Ellis’ suspension ended. Guess I was wrong.

    Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

    17 Comments
  • Nov
    8

    By Geoff Lepper
    48minutes.net

    OAKLAND — Warrior fans were treated to a tantalizing glimpse of the future Friday — at least until a couple of deficiencies dredged up from the past blotted out the landscape.

    The sight of second-year player Brandan Wright and rookie Anthony Randolph holding down the power forward slot in the absence of veteran Al Harrington (sore back) was a welcome one to fans who want to see the team build around those two potential stars.

    But a 55-41 rebounding deficit and 13 missed free throws — hallmarks of Warriors losses from throughout the 2000s — cost Golden State in a 109-104 loss to Memphis.

    “That’s a game we could have won,” guard Kelenna Azubuike said. “We’ve just got to take care of the little things down the stretch. We’ve got to knock down free throws, play defense. You can’t win like that. It’s that simple.”

    Fourteen offensive rebounds and 11 second-chance points in the first half served as a lifeline for the Grizzlies, who shot 37.5 percent from the floor but still were down just 50-48.

    That half nevertheless featured the first significant playing time for Randolph, who made his NBA debut Monday in Memphis with a meaningless 87 seconds. He came on with 4:24 left in the first quarter in place of Wright. He missed his first shot, a 19-foot jumper, and was called on the next possession for a foul trying to push Hakim Warrick off the block.

    “I was over excited,” Randolph said. “I’m not even sure how to describe it. It was more than excited. . . . I was probably having a little panic attack.”

    Randolph calmed down enough to collect eight points and seven rebounds in 17 minutes. After struggling with his outside shot for much of the exhibition season, it was gratifying for Randolph to gather all four of his buckets between 17 and 21 feet from the basket.

    “I thought he looked pretty good tonight,” Warriors coach Don Nelson said. “He had some nice moments, and he definitely has a presence to his game. . . . He got some consistent minutes and made his presence felt a little bit.”

    Wright, making the first of what’s expected to be many starts as the Warriors hand him the keys at power forward, finished with only six points, two rebounds and one chipped tooth in 21 minutes.

    Nevertheless, the framework was laid in place for a Wright/Randolph partnership.

    “I think once me and Brandan grow as players, we can be great defensive players, because we’re both so long and athletic,” Randolph said. “We complement each other. You take one out, it’s not like you’re losing anything.”

    ** Nelson said he went small in the third quarter in response to the Grizzlies’ shorter front line of Warrick, Rudy Gay and Darrell Arthur. And while Memphis did outrebound Golden State 16-11 in the period, that was more a byproduct of the Warriors’ inability to create any offense outside the paint. They were 1-for-9 beyond 10 feet, shot 39.3 percent total and collected only two assists as a team.

    ** Nelson has said for weeks that he doesn’t want the Warriors to take as many 3-pointers as they did last season. Now we see why. With Stephen Jackson’s 0-for-6, Golden State wound up going 2-for-12 from distance. That drops the Warriors’ season totals to 34-for-119 (28.6 percent), putting them squarely in the bottom third of the league.

    ** So much for the idea that Warriors rookie Richard Hendrix might provide some beef to bang with Memphis’ Marc Gasol: Nelson said that Hendrix will be making the Patrick O’Bryant Memorial Pilgrimage to Bakersfield, and soon.

    “I don’t think that he’s ready yet, and I’m going to put him in the D-League, probably for most of the year,” Nelson said. “I think that would be good for him, and then we’ll take a look at him. I don’t see that he’s going to be NBA-ready for quite a while.

    ** Corey Maggette is still hoping to play Sunday in Sacramento, but it sounds like Nelson would rather err on the side of caution after letting him back into the game at Memphis on Monday with negative results.

    “I think what I learned from the game in Memphis was that if he’s suffering in the first half, it’s better for me not to play him,” Nelson said. “Because first of all, he doesn’t play worth a shit when he’s trying to play hurt. And then it probably keeps him out an extra game afterwards, so it’s a lose-lose. So if he’s tender in those areas at halftime, and he wants to give it a go, I’m going to say no, let’s wait. I think that’s better for him and better for us.”

    ** As posited in this space earlier Friday, C.J. Watson did indeed start, although it was such a late change that rookie DeMarcus Nelson, who started the Warriors’ first five games at the point, was announced on the main scoreboard with the other four starters.

    Watson finished with eight assists, eight rebounds and no turnovers, but shot 1-for-7 from the floor and had three of the Warriors’ six misses from the free-throw line in the fourth quarter.

    ** Larry Riley, the former assistant coach who was booted upstairs Thursday to replace Pete D’Alessandro as assistant general manager, will miss the creature comforts of traveling with the team in its chartered Northwestern jet. All except for one, that is:

    “I won’t miss those doggone card games with Nellie,” Riley said. “He’s killing me. He’s just killing me. So that’s something I can give up.”

    Said Nelson, a bit wistfully: “I don’t know who I can find to be that bad at gin rummy.”

    Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

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  • Nov
    1

    One of my favorite pieces from any NBA writer last season came from ESPN’s J.A. Adande, sizing up the Suns in the wake of their February acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal, and what it meant for Phoenix.

    Under Mike D’Antoni’s theory of basketball, a team should need only 7 seconds to get a shot off. Under Shaq’s theory of basketball, 7 seconds is the bare minimum to creep his way past the half-court line. The two views were patently incompatible, a fact Adande — spinning off the revolution once promised by D’Antoni’s system — wryly noted by saying, “La revolucion esta muerta.”

    There’s a little bit of that same “end of an era” vibe to the Warriors’ decision not to pick up the fourth-year option on point guard Marcus Williams.

    It’s not that Williams is likely to blossom into an All-Star next season for another team. But ridding themselves of Williams in this fashion, with no regard to salvaging even the slightest hint of value, highlights the fact that the apparent tug-of-war between team president Robert Rowell and executive vice president Chris Mullin for control of the franchise’s direction is threatening to take the team on a road to nowhere.

    It’s one thing to have a coach come in and decide that he doesn’t like a certain player. Happens all the time.

    To decide that a player whom you’ve just acquired a few months earlier — at the probable cost of a future first-round pick — is not worth a single season at $2.1 million is unusual.

    To decide that without seeing the player participate in a single regular-season game on your behalf is just ludicrous.

    Even Patrick O’Bryant, whom Nelson had no use for from the jump — and vice-versa — had a full season to prove himself before the team decided to deep-six him by similarly declining their option.

    It’s kind of astounding to look back at the volume of players who have failed, in two short years, to live up to Nelson’s standards. One item from Al Harrington’s various pronouncements on Tuesday that I really do believe is something he told Marcus Thompson II:

    “We all know how Nellie is. We all know his history. If you’re not one of his dudes, you ain’t never going to be one of his dudes.”

    O’Bryant can back that up.

    So can Ike Diogu.

    And Troy Murphy.

    Or Adonal Foyle.

    Even Sarunas Jasikevicius.

    And Kosta Perovic.

    Heck, even some guys who started out as Nelson favorites — hello, Matt Barnes — ended up buried. Williams is just the latest victim on Nelson’s discard list.

    The coach has consistently derided Williams, even on the days when Williams played well in practice. A couple weeks ago, Williams was draining shots from all over the floor, busting up DeMarcus Nelson, and the coach responded with: “I don’t need him to score.”

    OK, but — even though Williams has played poorly on defense — he’s the one healthy point guard on the roster who can fill some of the scoring void left by Baron Davis and Monta Ellis, so why not take advantage of his strengths? Isn’t that the point of Nellieball, to maximize and exploit mismatches?

    When the Warriors made their best move of the past three years – the January 2007 trade of Murphy, Diogu, Mike Dunleavy and Keith McLeod to the Pacers for Jasikevicius, Harrington, Stephen Jackson and Josh Powell — it came about from the confluence of three competing drives:

    ** Rowell’s desire to shed the big-money extensions that were threatening to hamstring the team for years to come.

    ** Nelson’s instant dislike for most everything Murphy and Diogu did on the floor.

    ** Mullin’s ability to wamboozle Donnie Walsh into giving him two shorter, cheaper contracts — and two better players at the same time.

    The whiplash nature of Marcus Williams’ tenure in Golden State is a sign that members of that triumvirate are now pulling in opposite directions. And that ever-so-brief dalliance with relevance?

    Looks like it’s esta muerta.

    – Geoff

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  • Oct
    31

    By Geoff Lepper
    48minutes.net

    The annual talk in Warriors camp of improvement on defense begins to sound a bit like the NBA’s version of Chicken Little after a few years.

    But the patter grew in importance this time around because of the absence of injured guard Monta Ellis. Not that Ellis was a particularly sticky defender; he was far too easily rubbed off on screens last season, and despite his quickness, rarely put intensive pressure on a ballhandler before the mid-court line.

    But without Ellis’ innate scoring talents, the Warriors figure they’ll need to lock things down tight defensively to compensate.

    “Most Don Nelson teams aren’t teams that have had to hang their hat on defense,” Warriors forward Al Harrington said earlier this month, before his rift with the coach was brought to light. “But we’re going to have to, in order to hold the fort down until Monta gets back.”

    The results were mixed in the Warriors’ 108-103 loss to open the season on Wednesday. With Stephen Jackson playing all 48 minutes, primarily at the point guard position, Golden State was able to switch with impunity, as Nelson wanted. But the Hornets still shot 50 percent from the floor, and the Warriors only generated 14 turnovers, down from their average of 16.9 last season.

    Golden State had come in with reasonably optimistic expectations after a solid set of exhibition games.

    “I think we had one game that I wasn’t pleased, but with our defensive grade system, if you get in the 60s, from 60 to 65, you’re probably going to win,” Nelson said. “And our total grade point was 59 for the preseason. It was pretty strong.”

    That’s a change. There’s no point comparing raw scoring totals, since the Golden State’s pace of play skews that data so heavily, but a look at other benchmarks, such as opponent field-goal percentage, shows that Warriors of recent vintage have not fared well. Only once in the last nine seasons have they finished higher than 20th on that list.

    “We have guys that can play defense here,” newcomer Ronny Turiaf said. “Maybe the writers are not talking about it, or didn’t talk about it in the past, but I think that’s going to be a surprise to everybody, to see that somebody else can really play lockdown defense.”

    During the preseason, the Warriors were better at providing help defense than they had been last season, but began to suffer breakdowns when the player who needed to cover for the helper didn’t rotate over. It’s a step in the right direction, but that doesn’t matter if it means one extra pass before the opposition gets a layup.

    “I feel like everyone can play defense, especially the help-side,” guard Kelenna Azubuike said. “Help is definitely mental. When you get away from the ball, you’ve got to think about helping your man out.”

    With Turiaf, second-year forward Brandan Wright and (perhaps eventually) rookie forward Anthony Randolph joining Andris Biedrins as regular contributors, the Warriors are suddenly flush with shot-blockers. Wright and Randolph both showed the ability to close on would-be scorers from behind and use their long arms to get a clean swat from behind.

    “They’ve got to understand to bring their defensive smarts with their athleticism,” Jackson said. “Sometimes they rest and think that just because they’re so athletic, they can make up for rotating late or not paying attention to coverages. Once they understand if they pay attention to coverages, and use their athleticism, and rotate early, we’ll be a better defensive team. They’ve just got to put all that together.”

    DeMarcus Nelson turned himself from an undrafted rookie into a starting point guard on the basis of his defensive prowess and his athletic ability. In praising him after an exhibition win, Jackson took a presumably unintended swipe at the work of his predecessor, Baron Davis, which ebbed and flowed according to his desire and fatigue.

    “(Don Nelson) wants a point guard that can defend and rebound well, because I think last year we gave up a lot of penetration from that position,” Jackson said.

    NOTES: The Warriors must pick up the third-year options on Marco Belinelli and Brandan Wright and the fourth-year option on Marcus Williams by Friday. Executive vice president Chris Mullin said a couple weeks ago that no member of the trio was in danger of becoming the next Patrick O’Bryant — i.e. allowed to walk as an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season — but the fact that the team has put it off until the last minute may indicate a willingness to discuss including those players in trade talks involving the unhappy Harrington.

    Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

    20 Comments
  • Oct
    22

    Warriors captain Stephen Jackson has already taken over Baron Davis’ old locker in the prime corner spot.

    Could he really take over Davis’ old position on the court as well?

    Jackson finally appeared as an honest-to-God true point guard Tuesday night, something coach Don Nelson had been wanting to see for much of the exhibition season. And in a fairly routine 126-106 drubbing of an overmatched Lietuvos Rytas squad from Lithuania, Jackson’s debut was the high point: 28 points, three assists, three steals and just two turnovers in 33 minutes.

    “I enjoyed it, but it’s not what I think, it’s what coach thinks,” Jackson said. “I think I did pretty decent for my first time.”

    Nelson enjoyed it as well, especially since moving Jackson to the 1 meant he could get Kelenna Azubuike on the floor without having to yank either Jackson or Corey Maggette. It also meant the Warriors could switch defensive assignments with impunity, making them that much stronger.

    “I liked (Jackson) at point, actually,” Nelson said. “I thought when he tried to do too much, he got himself into a little trouble, but when he moved the ball, the team did well and were able to pick it up defensively, able to switch the screen-and-rolls more easily.”

    In half-court sets, there did not appear to be a huge difference between Jackson as point guard versus the Jackson who initiated the offense from the 2 and 3 spots last season. But Jackson was much more cautious in bringing the ball up than when he was at the 2 or 3.

    “I wasn’t focused on beating my man,” Jackson said. “I was just focused on being solid, getting the ball up the court, getting into the offense, and once the ball comes back to me, then it’s time to be aggressive.”

    In that vein, Jackson took up Davis’ tradition of shooting 3-pointers in a flurry, hoisting five in the third quarter and making four en route to 16 points in the third period alone.

    Here are some other items to ruminate on from Oracle Arena:

    ** First off, it must be said: Those were some ugly uniforms the visitors were rocking. That’s a whole lot of red and black, right there.

    ** The Warriors also tried a fair amount of Maggette at power forward, with pretty average results. It was a strange night for Maggette, who didn’t look nearly as good on the court as he did on the stat sheet, where he totaled 17 points and five rebounds in 26 minutes. He seemed oddly disconnected from the rest of the team, as if playing his own game, and wound up with five turnovers and a defensive effort that was something less than top-notch.

    “The concentration was not as good on the defensive end as I would have liked it,” Nelson said.

    ** Andris Biedrins looked rock-solid in his 23 minutes: 4-for-4 shooting and nine points, five assists, and three rebounds. If the team can get that level of production for 36 minutes a game, night in and night out, that would be huge.

    ** Brandan Wright had a couple of nice drives from the perimeter and even showed a crossover leading to a 12-foot pullup jumper. Obviously, defending a player such as New Orleans All-Star David West is vastly different from stopping Milko Bjelica, but it marked another step forward for a former rookie who could get next to no run last season.

    ** Newly minted starting point guard DeMarcus Nelson picked up three fouls in the opening 3:31. There’s being aggressive, and then there’s being over amped.

    ** Marco Belinelli stepped into a pair of wide-open shots and missed each. But he drilled a 17-footer with the familiar leg kick. Who needs balance?

    ** Outside of Jackson’s 5-for-8 on 3-pointers, the Warriors went 0-for-7 on treys. They also finished up with only 21 assists on 45 buckets, and while some of that can be attributed to getting 36 points off turnovers (often on breakaway buckets where there is no assist), it’s also indicative of too much ball stagnation.

    ** There are going to be some bruised bodies at practice Wednesday: C.J. Watson went flying over the row of seats on the baseline after a first-half layup. Wright came up limping at one point in the third quarter, although he continued to play, at least briefly. And Azubuike crashed to the ground after a hard foul in the third period as well.

    ** Marcus Williams did not get off the bench, despite a single plea (6:37 a.m. EDIT: from the crowd) during a second-half lull. Nelson’s doghouse can be a pretty lonely place; hopefully Patrick O’Bryant left behind some reading material.

    – Geoff

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