48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

It was the end of a difficult five-games-in-seven-days road trip. Their captain and team leader was on the bench in street clothes because of a badly swollen and sprained left wrist. They were facing a highly motivated ex-teammate who wanted to prove a point.

The Warriors better hope one of those excuses holds water. Because when Golden State dropped a not-nearly-that-close 138-125 decision to the New York Knicks on Saturday for its sixth consecutive defeat, it wasn’t just a loss.

It was comprehensive surrender. Total capitulation.

So total, in fact, that Lowell Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press Democrat said he saw Warriors coach Don Nelson leaving the bench several seconds before the final horn sounded. Honestly, I didn’t catch that, but I can’t say it would shock me if it was true. Whenever the camera caught showed a glimpse of Nelson on Saturday, he looked to me like a CEO who was stuck testifying before a Congressional sub-committee — someone supremely interested in being anywhere but there at that moment in that time.

New York Knicks guard Chris Duhon drives on Golden State Warriors center Andris Biedrins (AP photo/Frank Franklin II)

Of course, you’d probably look like that, too, if your team was allowing a mid-level talent such as Chris Duhon to break a Knicks franchise record that had stood for nearly a half-century. Duhon had 22 assists, or one more than Richie Guerin notched on Dec. 12, 1958.

“Wow, what a player,” Nelson said. “He looked like Steve Nash out there. Unbelievable performance. Whether we zoned him, switched him, it didn’t matter. He still found a way to hurt us. Really impressive performance.”

The utter inability to even hint at an effective countermeasure to the Knicks’ high pick-and-roll — which David Lee rode to a career-high 37 points and 21 rebounds — was enough to render a Warriors fan nonsensical with rage.

The Warriors consistently tried to stop Duhon (or Anthony Roberson) by having the big man step out on him, either to switch fully, or merely to impede his progress momentarily. But one of two things would happen:

New York Knicks forward/center David Lee in a familiar pose from Saturday: Readying himself for a two-handed jam (AP photo/Frank Franklin II)

A) The smaller defender would fail to properly cover Lee on the roll, providing an engraved invitation for Duhon to find Lee immediately with a pass for a two-handed dunk;

or B) Duhon would sail right around the larger man before zip a bounce pass to Lee (or, if the defender hung on a little longer than usual, hit him with a wraparound). The end result: Still a two-handed dunk.

“It was just embarrassing,” said center Andris Biedrins, who was part of the crew that couldn’t stop a guy who looks like Conan O’Brien’s younger brother.

What I cannot understand for the life of me is why on Earth the Warriors didn’t make an adjustment, why somebody didn’t say, “Hey, let’s have the big man stay home with Lee, and make Chris Duhon — a historically poor shooter whose 41.8 field-goal percentage from this season marks a career-high by a wide margin — hit some open 15-foot pull-ups if the Knicks want to hurt us with this play.”

I mean, it couldn’t have hurt to try that, no? Especially given the fact that Duhon was the only Knicks starter to shoot less than 50 percent from the floor Saturday.

Even if it didn’t work, it would have given the Warriors one more possible excuse.

The Lineup Project
As always, “small” equals one big man, “medium” equals two and “large” equals three:

Lineup       Score               Time
Large         N/A                 0:00
Medium     26-22, GSW     9:26
Small         116-99, NYK   38:34

The medium numbers were tilted by a 3:15 stretch in the middle of the third quarter when a pairing of Biedrins and Anthony Randolph helped Golden State go on a 12-4 run that cut the deficit to 102-90.

More on this to come Sunday night — check back for details.

Notes
Marco Belinelli started in place of the injured Stephen Jackson, played 6 minutes, then wasn’t seen again for another 90 minutes or so of real time before Nelson suddenly stuck him back on the floor — for all of 2 minutes. No wonder the guy has his brother spreading the word in the foreign media about how unhappy he is. I’m shocked he hasn’t gone the full Sarunas Jasikevicius route, openly questioning why the Warriors won’t make a deal and set him free. There’s always time for that, I guess. . . . When Lee passed the ball to himself for a slam in the third quarter after intercepting a Biedrins pass, it made for great highlight material. But here’s a tip, David: When you’re on a 2-on-0 break, and the other guy is the point guard (Duhon) who will eventually set up seven point-blank buckets for you, you might want to think about passing the rock as a sign of gratitude. . . . Hey Al Harrington: 36 points? 12 rebounds? That was straight filthy right there. By the way, great quote from Al in the early edition of the Chronicle gamer regarding Knicks coach Mike D’Antoni — and the implied differences between D’Antoni and Nelson: “Coach D’Antoni is one of the coolest, nicest coaches I’ve ever played for in my whole career. He’s so positive about everything. No matter what’s going on in the game, how you’re shooting, he won’t let you put your head down. That’s great to be around.” . . . The ambidextrous success Lee had around the basket came in stark contrast to Biedrins’ game, which is becoming much easier to defend because his off hand (the right) is just not enough of a factor. Biedrins did switch hands once during the game to score with his right, as did second-year forward Brandan Wright; after missing a tough lefty shot while turning over his left shoulder and into the lane (and a Knicks defender), he used a right-handed flip to score in a similar situation later in the game.

Without Monta . . .
Golden State once again lives up to my prediction by taking the L and staying on pace for 8-18. I have the Warriors winning three of their next five games: Monday against Miami, then the following Monday at Oklahoma City and finally Dec. 10 at home versus Milwaukee. Given how poorly they performed on this road trip, that may be even too generous. We shall see.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

Marcus Thompson is reporting that Warriors captain Stephen Jackson is sitting out Saturday’s game with a sprained left hand. Assuming that’s true, I’ll be fascinated to see who sucks up Jackson’s 18 shots per game.

I’m betting half go to Jamal Crawford, trying to stick it to Mike D’Antoni, with another 5-6 going to Marco Belinelli, who’s starting in place of Jackson.

Also, the Warriors have shown fairly conclusively that they don’t have good enough wing play right now to make smallball work in their favor. Taking Jackson out would dilute that talent even more. Will Nelson still try to outgun the Knicks?

Lastly, if the Warriors come out with spectacular ball movement tonight, how much will that fuel the fire set by Jackson’s “I know it ain’t me” quotes from last night?

BTW, I forgot to add: Belinelli starting? Can you say “showcase”?

– Geoff

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

Well, give Don Nelson credit for one thing: He said that benching Al Harrington wasn’t going to hurt his trade value, and he was right on the money.

Given what the Warriors’ options were, getting Jamal Crawford from the Knicks is probably the best available option.

In the short term, dealing Harrington for any useful player is an unquestioned win for the Warriors. Once Harrington left town, it was clear he wasn’t ever coming back. The situation had deteriorated beyond repair, as evidenced by Nelson and Harrington’s agent, Dan Fegan, trading barbs through the media.

Getting a player of Crawford’s caliber back for a nonentity is pretty much a no-lose situation.

In the long term, it’s a totally different matter, of course.

The Warriors are now locked into a core of Crawford, Stephen Jackson, Corey Maggette, Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins — imagine that, a perfect small ball starting five! — beyond the summer of 2010, when a historic crop of free agents is due to hit the market. And because each of those players (unless Crawford crazily opts out after this season) is due $8.5 million or more in 2010-11, it’s highly doubtful that any of them can be traded until after the ‘10 feeding frenzy is over.

This deal makes a whole lot of sense in the wake of the extension Jackson signed earlier this week. That contract had already pretty much knocked Golden State out of any significant change-making ability in 2010. So using the salary-cap space that remained ($7.5 million is my rough estimate, if the league can maintain its recent revenue growth) to add a quality player for basically no cost was a no-brainer.

(As for the luxury tax in 2010-11, unless the league’s revenues well and truly crater, the Warriors should be able to get under that threshold fairly easily, even if they keep a core of Crawford, Jackson, Ellis, Biedrins, Maggette, Ronny Turiaf, Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph.)

And hey, on the plus side, Warrior fans can go ahead and buy that $230 authentic jersey and know it won’t become outdated anytime soon.

Other thoughts after a day of contemplation and research:

** Crawford gives the Warriors a couple of things they’ve been missing this season: A guard who can drive and kick, and another jump shooter that must be accounted for.

According to NBA.com’s Hotspots, Crawford shot 40.4 percent last season from outside 15 feet; the Warriors as a whole, even with Ellis’ storied mid-range jumper and the open looks generated by Baron Davis, hit only 36.6 shots from the same range.

This season, those numbers are way more out of whack: Crawford, flourishing as a gunner in Mike D’Antoni’s system, is hitting 47.2 percent of those shots. The Warriors are at 34.1 percent, and that number drops to 32.0 if you remove Anthony Morrow’s 19-for-31 performance.

Given that Morrow’s emergence has been credited by other Warriors with opening up the floor for everybody, getting a guy with Crawford’s marksmanship is a huge boon.

** I’ll admit that when I’ve watched Knicks games over the last couple of years, it has not been with an eye on Crawford’s defense, but the things I’ve read — sample from John Hollinger: “[H]e’s an incredibly soft defender who rarely stops penetration or helps” — don’t sound too promising. I’ll be very interested to see what he brings at that end of the floor.

** I would think Kelenna Azubuike is going to see his minutes get slashed. In his three (partial) NBA seasons, Azubuike has been extraordinarily consistent with regard to his PER numbers, but that’s not all good news; he was at 13.4 in 2006-07, 13.5 last season and 13.6 this year. (At that rate of improvement, he’ll reach 15.0 — what’s considered “average” — in the 2022-23 season, when he’s 40 years old.)

Azubuike has cut down on the turnovers that plagued him as a rookie, but seen his true shooting percentage plummet because of a steep drop in accuracy from beyond the arc (43.0 to 36.4 to 25.0).

Another victim will be C.J. Watson, although I would think he has more hope of getting back into the rotation eventually. The torn ligament in his shooting elbow has totally neutralized Watson as a long-distance threat (on a per-minute basis, he’s taking one-fifth as many 3s this season as in 2007-’08); once he gets healthy, there’s no reason he can’t be a change-of-pace PG off the bench.

The big question is whether or not Morrow can still carve out time, or if Crawford will just eat up all his minutes, with Nelson figuring that the decrease in consistency of shooting and rebounding drop-off will be made up for with better ballhandling and passing.

I could see this kind of a setup between the 1, 2 and 3 spots until Ellis returns (I’m not even going to bother to separate them, since there’s so much ability to switch off):

Jackson 42
Crawford 36
Morrow 28
Azubuike 22
Watson 16

** Has it really only been 19 months since this team finished 16-5 down the stretch and blew the doors off the No. 1-seeded Mavericks? Even by NBA standards, the amount of shrapnel left over from the dismantling of that team is pretty impressive.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

Without even a pretense of having something at the top, here’s today’s installment of your faithful reporter’s quest to prognosticate all 1,230 NBA regular-season games this season:

76ers (2-5) at Raptors (4-3), 4:05 p.m.
Pick: Raptors -6
Kevin Garnett? Pfffft. Now, if Jose Calderon can get the ever-placid Elton Brand to wag a finger in his face, that’d be something impressive.

Hawks (6-0) at Celtics (7-1), 4:35 p.m.
Pick: Celtics -10.5
If Atlanta really can be this good for 82 games, I might have to seriously revise my opinion of Mike Bibby.

Pacers (3-3) at Nets (2-4), 4:35 p.m.
Pick: Nets +1.5
I shouldn’t fall into this trap, but I’m going to anyway.

Lakers (6-0) at Hornets (4-2), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Lakers +1
L.A. is 5-1 against the spread this season, and the only loss was by one point (they beat Denver by 7 while laying 8).

Trail Blazers (4-3) at Heat (4-3), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Heat -1.5
Greg Oden comes back, but for how long? Three games? Six?

Spurs (2-4) at Bucks (3-5), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Spurs -2.5
So, was that win over New York an aberration, or a return to form for the Spurs’ shooters?

Magic (4-3) at Thunder (1-6), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Magic -7
Nick Collison should get paid double for the abuse he’s about to take.

Jazz (6-1) at Wizards (0-5), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Jazz -4.5
Has a team gone from splashing out huge wads of cash to fighting to keep from falling into inevitable rebuilding mode faster than the Wizards?

Knicks (4-3) at Grizzlies (3-5), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Knicks +4.5
I hadn’t realized until right now that the Knicks really don’t have a single legitimate shot-blocker. They’re still in single-digits as a team (9), through seven games. Makes me wonder if Mike D’Antoni told Chris Duhon on the day he signed, “Welcome aboard. Don’t ever, ever, EVER, EVER, EVER let your man get by you.”

Kings (3-5) at Clippers (1-6), 7:35 p.m.
Pick: Clippers -7
The Kings disappointed me last night by kicking away what should have been a sure cover in the final minutes. I’m not sure if this is the right response, but so be it.

Rockets (4-3) at Suns (6-2), 7:35 p.m.
Picks: Rockets +3.5
This is one of about four games I’ve flipped back and forth. I’ll be fascinated to watch Matt Barnes and Ron Artest, two of the league’s more combustible personalities on the floor, going head-to-head.

Yesterday: 6-2
Season record: 50-54-1

– Geoff

One of my favorite pieces from any NBA writer last season came from ESPN’s J.A. Adande, sizing up the Suns in the wake of their February acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal, and what it meant for Phoenix.

Under Mike D’Antoni’s theory of basketball, a team should need only 7 seconds to get a shot off. Under Shaq’s theory of basketball, 7 seconds is the bare minimum to creep his way past the half-court line. The two views were patently incompatible, a fact Adande — spinning off the revolution once promised by D’Antoni’s system — wryly noted by saying, “La revolucion esta muerta.”

There’s a little bit of that same “end of an era” vibe to the Warriors’ decision not to pick up the fourth-year option on point guard Marcus Williams.

It’s not that Williams is likely to blossom into an All-Star next season for another team. But ridding themselves of Williams in this fashion, with no regard to salvaging even the slightest hint of value, highlights the fact that the apparent tug-of-war between team president Robert Rowell and executive vice president Chris Mullin for control of the franchise’s direction is threatening to take the team on a road to nowhere.

It’s one thing to have a coach come in and decide that he doesn’t like a certain player. Happens all the time.

To decide that a player whom you’ve just acquired a few months earlier — at the probable cost of a future first-round pick — is not worth a single season at $2.1 million is unusual.

To decide that without seeing the player participate in a single regular-season game on your behalf is just ludicrous.

Even Patrick O’Bryant, whom Nelson had no use for from the jump — and vice-versa — had a full season to prove himself before the team decided to deep-six him by similarly declining their option.

It’s kind of astounding to look back at the volume of players who have failed, in two short years, to live up to Nelson’s standards. One item from Al Harrington’s various pronouncements on Tuesday that I really do believe is something he told Marcus Thompson II:

“We all know how Nellie is. We all know his history. If you’re not one of his dudes, you ain’t never going to be one of his dudes.”

O’Bryant can back that up.

So can Ike Diogu.

And Troy Murphy.

Or Adonal Foyle.

Even Sarunas Jasikevicius.

And Kosta Perovic.

Heck, even some guys who started out as Nelson favorites — hello, Matt Barnes — ended up buried. Williams is just the latest victim on Nelson’s discard list.

The coach has consistently derided Williams, even on the days when Williams played well in practice. A couple weeks ago, Williams was draining shots from all over the floor, busting up DeMarcus Nelson, and the coach responded with: “I don’t need him to score.”

OK, but — even though Williams has played poorly on defense — he’s the one healthy point guard on the roster who can fill some of the scoring void left by Baron Davis and Monta Ellis, so why not take advantage of his strengths? Isn’t that the point of Nellieball, to maximize and exploit mismatches?

When the Warriors made their best move of the past three years – the January 2007 trade of Murphy, Diogu, Mike Dunleavy and Keith McLeod to the Pacers for Jasikevicius, Harrington, Stephen Jackson and Josh Powell — it came about from the confluence of three competing drives:

** Rowell’s desire to shed the big-money extensions that were threatening to hamstring the team for years to come.

** Nelson’s instant dislike for most everything Murphy and Diogu did on the floor.

** Mullin’s ability to wamboozle Donnie Walsh into giving him two shorter, cheaper contracts — and two better players at the same time.

The whiplash nature of Marcus Williams’ tenure in Golden State is a sign that members of that triumvirate are now pulling in opposite directions. And that ever-so-brief dalliance with relevance?

Looks like it’s esta muerta.

– Geoff