48minutes.net

(aka How To Lose Fake Money And Real Credibility, Part 14)

What is it with guys on the trading block and injuries? Al Harrington has his back, Chicago’s Kirk Hinrich blows out a thumb, and now the biggest non-surprise of all: Knicks center Eddy Curry — who makes your fearless prognosticator look practically svelte — is having problems with his balky knee.

God help the Nets if they ever truly decide to put Vince Carter up for sale. The guy will probably get broken in half before the first serious offer comes in.

Thunder (1-5) at Pacers (2-3), 4:05 p.m.
Pick: Pacers -11.5
It’s small consolation, but at least Seattle doesn’t have to watch putrid basketball being played.

Trail Blazers (3-3) at Magic (4-2), 4:05 p.m.
Pick: Magic -7
Brandon Roy has hit game-winning shots in each of Portland’s first three home games this season. Unfortunately for the Trail Blazers, those are the only wins they’ve had all year.

Raptors (4-2) at Celtics (6-1), 4:35 p.m.
Pick: Celtics -8.5
Can’t we just skip to the part where the Celtics and Lakers play a best-of-seven series?

Nets (2-3) at Heat (3-3), 4:35 p.m.
Pick: Heat -9
I don’t like that various computer simulations have this as a 5- or 6-point game. Oddsmakers shouldn’t be allowed to use my “Never Pick A Team That’s Had A Night Off In Miami” rule against me.

Grizzlies (3-4) at Suns (5-2), 6:05 p.m.
Pick: Suns -11.5
Allegedly, Shaq is on Twitter now.

Yesterday: 5-3
Season record: 44-47-1

– Geoff

[EDIT at 3:30 p.m.: I looked up and then forgot to list the team offensive efficiency stats from John Hollinger. The Warriors are 21st so far this season, averaging 85.0 points per 100 possessions. A year ago, they were third, at 96.6. Just another sign they need another facilitator to move the ball in the short term.]

It’s been a week now since Al Harrington put on his impassioned Elvis impersonation, and the Warriors seem no closer to moving their forward to happier climes.

In fact, I’m beginning to get convinced that Harrington and the Warriors might be stuck with each at least until Monta Ellis returns from his ankle surgery.

That fact was put into stark relief Monday when Joe Dumars struck almost without warning, collecting Allen Iverson from the Denver Nuggets in exchange for three players, most notably point guard Chauncey Billups.

Pulling the trigger on that deal was almost comically easy for Dumars, since it represents a victory in both the short and long views — the immediate effect is an upgrade from Billups to Iverson and a desired shakeup in the team’s culture, while the two-year plan is the opening of a slot for rising guard Rodney Stuckey.

For the Warriors, however, there do not appear to be any such no-brainer trades lurking out there by which Harrington can be set free.

That’s because Golden State’s short- and long-term goals cannot be easily resolved by any one player.

In the short term, it’s indisputable that the Warriors need help at the point guard position. DeMarcus Nelson, while a find as an undrafted rookie, is a raw, unfinished combo guard who’s not yet ready to be the primary playmaker on an NBA team. C.J. Watson is a score-first guy with flashes of occasional passing creativity, but not enough consistent ability to get past his man on the dribble. Stephen Jackson is too turnover-prone to be a full-time initiator. Marcus Williams has, for better or worse, been banished to irrelevancy.

But the whole point of signing Ellis to a six-year, $66 million deal was to make him the Warriors point guard of the future. (Admittedly, the timetable had to be moved up on that transformation once Baron Davis opted out, but Don Nelson has said consistently and pretty much from the moment he got here that Ellis would need to be a point guard to attain greatness in the NBA.)

So while someone such as Kirk Hinrich would be a tremendous upgrade over what the Warriors have on the floor right now, how do the pieces fit together when Ellis is healthy? Will Nelson sit either Jackson or Corey Maggette to get Hinrich on the floor? Does this mean Kelenna Azubuike can expect 4 minutes a night?

About the only way to get full value from Hinrich when Ellis returns is to play him at the 2, move Jackson back to the 3 and Maggette to the 4.

Unfortunately, that would be a disaster.

The small ball lineup of Davis/Jason Richardson/Jackson/Harrington couldn’t get out of the second round of the playoffs two seasons ago. And that group — especially when you consider how well Davis was playing in the spring of 2007 — is significantly better than what Ellis/Hinrich/Jackson/Maggette offers at this point in time.

Holding onto Harrington until Ellis returns gives the team options. If Warriors officials are convinced Ellis won’t return to his previous form and try to void his deal, then they can pull the trigger on a Harrington deal involving a permanent replacement at PG. If they like what they see from Ellis’ rehabilitation a month from now, then they can make a trade to shave further salary obligations off the books — such as Harrington and Marco Belinelli to Chicago for Drew Gooden (whose $7.1 million contract expires this summer) and Thabo Sefolosha.

This season has been star-crossed from the moment Davis informed the Warriors of his decision to decline $17.8 million in salary. Making a trade that solves one short-term problem while creating a longer-term logjam is not the solution.

– Geoff

Warriors forward Al Harrington is finally telling the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, apparently.

After claiming early Tuesday afternoon that he “wasn’t at that point” of demanding a trade, Harrington hours later did in fact march into executive vice president Chris Mullin’s office to demand a trade, according to his own testimony in other outlets.

Not much I can add to that. Obviously, my earlier report — while accurate in terms of quoting Harrington — was proven inaccurate because of the underlying deceit. Mea culpa.

One thing I will be asking Al later this morning is why he didn’t go public over the summer to try to force the Warriors’ hand. Doing it the day before the season makes him come off as the bad guy, his team-first claims notwithstanding; a concerted effort in June and July would have allowed him to hold the upper hand in the PR war at this point.

Until then, here are some possible trade partners and targets for the Warriors:

CHICAGO: Kirk Hinrich
He’s a superfluous hybrid guard on a team that also has Larry Hughes, Ben Gordon and No. 1 overall pick Derrick Rose. Of course, he’s also got $36.5 million remaining on a deal that runs through 2011-12, and a defensive pairing with Monta Ellis would be akin in some ways to laying a welcome mat to the hoop.

MEMPHIS: Javaris Crittenton
Long of arm but short on accomplishments, Crittendon is probably the biggest reach in this group, although there are other bonuses to be had: Because the Grizzlies have so much room under the salary cap, the cost-conscious Warriors don’t have to take any other contracts back, although Memphis will presumably try to foist a Marko Jaric or Greg Buckner on them.

CHARLOTTE: Raymond Felton
This might be the best fit of these choices. Not only is Felton available because of the presence of D.J. Augustin, but the Bobcats are desperate for frontcourt help because they chose Augustin over Brook Lopez, and don’t want to play Emeka Okafor out of position at power forward.

OKLAHOMA CITY: Earl Watson
Another situation where a highly touted rookie (Russell Westbrook) has been brought onboard, making Watson more sellable. With the addition of a second player to balance out the salaries, longtime potential Warrior Chris Wilcox could also be discussed.

ATLANTA: Speedy Claxton
When Josh Childress was still in the fold, there wasn’t that much need for Harrington in Atlanta. With Childress plying his trade in Greece, the Hawks suddenly have room alongside Marvin Williams and Josh Smith.

MILWAUKEE: Charlie Villanueva
Villanueva has been ticketed out of town ever since the Bucks added Joe Alexander and Richard Jefferson, and his game is everything Nelson wanted a reluctant Harrington to do. Would require a second player on the Bucks’ end to balance paychecks.

In the longshots category:

LA CLIPPERS: Cuttino Mobley
Mobley is standing in the way of rookie gunner Eric Gordon, and he’s another strong locker-room personality on a team that just added Baron Davis. The Clippers would also be able to plug Harrington in whenever Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman inevitably go down with injuries. (Oh, wait, they already are.)

NEW YORK: Stephon Marbury
Given that coach Mike D’Antoni runs the closest thing out there to what Nelson wants like to do in a perfect world, it seems absurd that the Warriors would want a luxury-tax monster like Steph — moody, intractable and crazy- not-in-a-good-way — whom Mike D has all but kicked to the curb.

DENVER: Allen Iverson
Hey, if the Warriors are really going to take on $21.9 million worth of expiring contract, they might as well get the highest quality $21.9 million worth of expiring contract. This, of course, is only an option if the Nuggets decide to blow everything up and start from scratch.

– Geoff