48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

In 18 months as an NBA player, Marco Belinelli’s stock has gone through more roles than a TV character actor: Summer League star, Jason Richardson replacement, defensive sieve, bench ornament, unhappy camper, trade bait.

So is Belinelli’s latest turn — reborn playmaker — just another phase, destined to vanish like the next full moon?

It’s still too early to tell for certain, but in the 13 games since Don Nelson refocused the Warriors’ attack, Belinelli has already weathered one dip and ridden it out. I figured that after back-to-back poor performances in Florida — combined 7-for-24 shooting with four turnovers against five assists in Orlando and Miami — Belinelli’s run was at an end, and that he would go back to being a pumpkin, metaphorically speaking.

Instead, he had one of his two best games of the season in the Warriors’ 117-111 win over Toronto on Monday: 23 points, 6-12 FG, 5-8 3FG, 6-6 FT, 6 AST, 2 TO.

After that game, Warriors coach Don Nelson said Belinelli was succeeding in the team’s revamped, Euro-style offense — 47.5 FG, 40.0 3FG, 16.0 PPG, 3.3 APG — because “he’s a much better shooter on the move than he is stationary.”

I disagree. Belinelli has tamed the wild leg kick that used to punctuate his shooting motion, but he still often twists his lower body to the left when he fires while moving, both off the dribble and situations where he catches and shoots on a cut.

In the Toronto game, for example, Belinelli was 1-for-6 off dribble-drives, 1-for-2 while catching on the move, and 4-for-4 (three of those from deep) on standing shots. All three of those treys came on plays that began with Stephen Jackson driving and drawing multiple defenders, then kicking out, either directly to Belinelli or through an intermediary.

The bigger surprise on offense has been Belinelli’s emergence as a passer. He’s never going to be a straight point guard in the NBA, not unless he significantly upgrades his open-court ballhandling, but as a half-court initiator, he’s just a half-step behind Jackson and Jamal Crawford in terms of finding open shooters.

The style of Belinelli’s passing makes it seem as though he’s cavalierly throwing the ball around. Just as many Italians would find speech without the punctuation provided by their hand gestures to be unacceptably bland, Belinelli seems to use a two-handed chest pass only as a means of last resort. Witness Belinelli’s behind-the-back dish in the lane to Brandan Wright on the left baseline [1, 6:45] (there was no assist because Wright allowed Chris Bosh to erase the shot), or his one-handed whip pass to Andris Biedrins for a layup [3, 6:07]. That dish was zipped into a tiny opening created when Andrea Bargnani briefly lost eye contact with the ball and couldn’t quite recover in time.

At the defensive end, Belinelli is much improved from last year, when he looked timid on many occasions and, even more often, just befuddled. Belinelli is best utilized against a bigger player, rather than chasing a quicker man, although he did a credible job shadowing Rajon Rondo for some time in the Warriors’ win against Boston.

The one thing he’s doing spectacularly well at the defensive end is eliciting offensive fouls from players who don’t have the energy or willingness to deal with his peskiness.

Against Boston, he drew six offensive fouls:

1, 3:45: Tony Allen tries to come up from the right block while Leon Powe shuttles down from the elbow to switch places. Belinelli, who had been playing Allen on the high side, gets his right arm around Allen to prevent him from going wide, then falls over backwards as Allen extends his arms to get free, directly in front of referee Greg Willard. FOUL OR FLOP? Flop. Belinelli was moving backwards, not set, while impeding Allen’s movement.

3, 8:37: Ray Allen initiates from the top of the key with a pass to Kevin Garnett in the high right post, then loops left around a Powe pick. Belinelli does not slow in the slightest and caroms wildly off Powe to the ground, doing a 180 spin in midair. As before, this whole minidrama plays out practically in the lap of an official — this time, Leon Wood — who adjudicates in favor of Belinelli. FOUL OR FLOP? It may not be an outright flop, but it ain’t much of a foul, either. Belinelli made little attempt to avoid a pretty well-established screen. This probably should have been a no-call, but those (idiotically) no longer exist in this league.

3, 7:39: Ray Allen comes top-key right and faces the basket as Rondo initiates, with Belinelli standing chest-to-chest. As Allen tries to make a cut to his right without the ball, he uses his left arm to hook Belinelli in an attempt to create separation. FOUL OR FLOP? Foul, and an especially galling mistake given that Allen had a Kevin Garnett screen looming in the near future to rub out Belinelli.

4, 9:29: Tony Allen tries to ball-handle around a Paul Pierce screen at the left elbow. Pierce leans hard to his right to deliver the shoulder block to Belinelli, who once again ricochets hard in the opposite direction after contact. FOUL OR FLOP? Foul, because Pierce is leaning at about a 30-degree angle to deliver the shot. If he’d stayed vertical, it probably would have been a clean screen.

4, 5:29: A pure frustration foul on the part of Ray Allen, who is clearly bothered by Belinelli’s body contact while attempting to establish position on the left wing and flails with both arms to incur the whistle. FOUL OR FLOP? Foul.

4, 4:39: Kevin Garnett clocks Belinelli with another frustration reaction, although this one at least merits a whistle. FOUL OR FLOP? Foul. (Three minutes later, apparently unsatisfied, Garnett bodychecks Belinelli, a move that did not get called but pretty clearly should have been.)

Against the Lakers, Belinelli goaded Luke Walton into pushing off to create space. Against the Raptors, he just flat-out flopped for calls against Bargnani (attempting to post up Belinelli on a switch) and Bosh (trying to screen for Jason Kapono).

There have been plenty of comparisons drawn between Belinelli and Manu Ginobili, but aside from prominent noses, Italian heritage and one common move — driving down and across the lane from the right elbow with two giant steps to set up a floater from the left block — I don’t see it.

Ginobili is much more of a driver (his career FTA-per-minute rate is nearly three times that of Belinelli) and a far superior rebounder to Belinelli, who, in turn, is a more natural 3-point shooter (it took Ginobili five years to crack the 39-percent barrier on treys in the NBA; Belinelli shot 39.0 last season and is at 39.5 this year).

I would argue Belinelli is more in the mold of a Bruce Bowen or Derek Fisher, at least defensively: Someone who can get very handsy, willing to try to drive an opponent crazy, and then taking advantage by embellishing on the ensuing contact to draw offensive fouls.

I’m still not convinced that, once Monta Ellis gets healthy, Belinelli’s playing time won’t shrink. But he’s got the better part of another month, most likely, to prove me wrong.

The Lineup Project
It’s a triumphant return for smallball, which has finally passed up the “traditional” lineup in terms of YTD effectiveness. (The Small group is now minus-7.1 per 48 minutes; the Medium group is minus-8.1.)

Programming note
I’m going to a New Year’s Eve celebration, so there won’t be a live take on the Thunder game. I’ll check it out on tape and get back to you.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

By now, you’ve undoubtedly read Marcus Thompson’s blog item regarding the report from Stephen Jackson that Baron Davis wants to be traded back to the Bay less than six months after bolting to go back home.

Aside from the usual eye-rolling that comes with most Baron pronouncements, there’s a very specific and immoveable obstacle to this scenario: BD can’t seriously think that the Warriors (i.e., team president Robert Rowell) — who didn’t want to be on the hook for four fully guaranteed years because of concerns about Davis’ health and motivation — are suddenly going to be willing to pay for FIVE seasons.

Here, then, is a helpful guide to 30 things more likely to happen than Baron Davis coming back to the Bay:

1) Barack Obama arrives at the White House on the afternoon of Jan. 20, spots George Bush ducking out the back door, tosses him the keys and says, “You can keep it. I just got Hank Paulson’s last report, and I’m outta here.”

2) Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter each play 82 games — in the same season.

3) Clay Bennett goes bankrupt and the City of Seattle picks up the Thunder for $42,598 plus court costs in an Oklahoma City repo auction.

4) Warrior fans make it through a broadcast without being reminded that they’re missing (insert number here) points per game.

5) Larry Brown quits the Bobcats out of sheer frustration with Sean May.

(Wait, that one could actually happen.)

6) The L wakes up to the fact that Kevin Garnett has crossed the line from “hard-nosed” to “wantonly overaggressive” and finally takes some punitive action.

7) Allen Iverson takes two weeks off from the Pistons, undergoes 274 laser treatments and comes back without any tattoos.

8 ) Jose Calderon misses a free throw. But only one.

9) Gilbert Arenas announces that he’s quitting the NBA to switch to blogging full-time.

10) Jamal Crawford starts to play lockdown defense.

11) Barry Bonds is named the San Francisco Giants’ new strength and conditioning coach.

12) Kobe Bryant drops 71 on the Suns, then tells a live ABC audience: “Shaq, your ass taste like chicken. At least, that’s what Steve Nash said.”

13) Al Harrington tells Jackson that he’d like to come back to the Warriors, too.

14) Erick Dampier acknowledges that he hasn’t played up to the seven-year, $73 million deal he signed in 2004 and gives Mark Cuban an oversized posterboard check for $30 million in a halftime ceremony at a Mavericks home game.

15) Cuban’s attorneys immediately take half as a retainer.

16) The San Jose Sharks turn yet another glittering regular season into a Stanley Cup title.

17) Stephon Marbury returns to the Knicks at the All-Star break, scores 22.8 points per game the rest of the way and leads New York to the playoffs.

18) Corey Maggette misses 17 games after tearing his lat during a particularly vigorous weight-training session.

19) Eric Gordon takes a rainbow jumper that gets caught among the banners at the TD Banknorth Arena and never comes back to the court.

20) Thanks to a general outcry from critics, “ER” gets renewed.

21) Newspapers in the United States report a 450 percent jump in readership for 2008 over 2007.

22) Dikembe Mutombo stays retired.

23) Dennis Rodman doesn’t.

24) Gregg Popovich promises to dress like Gandalf for the duration of the Spurs’ playoff run.

Will Pop . . .

. . . pick up pipe-smoking as well?

25) Derrick Rose actually breaks Andre Miller’s ankle.

26) Kerri Walsh announces that because it’s too hard to choose a new partner while Misty May-Treanor recovers from her torn Achilles tendon, she’s just going to play solo on the AVP Tour.

And she still wins every tournament.

27) The luxurious manes of Pau and Marc Gasol are revealed to be nothing more than wild wigs when Ron Artest yanks on Pau’s hair during one particularly intense Rockets-Lakers confrontation.

28) Kevin McHale goes 1-62 as a coach. AND STILL KEEPS HIS JOB.

29) No, really: Jamal Crawford starts to play lockdown defense.

30) The Clippers wake up on the morning after the trade deadline and find that not only is Davis still clad in red and blue, but they also still employ Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

OAKLAND — Warriors coach Don Nelson knew what other teams thought when they came into Oracle Arena.

“Not being able to win and not being able to do what we want in the fourth quarter . . . good teams figure they can beat us,” Nelson said.

With Stephen Jackson back, that no longer can be considered a safe assumption for Warriors opponents. Just ask the Boston Celtics after Jackson dropped 15 of his game-high 28 points on them in the fourth quarter of Golden State’s 99-89 win on Friday.

As mentioned in the live thread, this was the perfect setup for an underdog to knock off the Celtics: Not only was it the second half of an all-road back-to-back for Boston, but the Warriors also had 72 hours between games.

What tipped the scales, however, was Jackson’s return from a four-game absence to allow his sprained left hand — an injury that coincided with a brutal 26.9 percent shooting stretch (21-for-78) — to finally heal.

More specifically, it was Jackson’s fourth-quarter presence that made the difference. After a first-quarter individual showdown with Paul Pierce that ended in pretty much a draw (Jackson had 11 points, Pierce 13), Jackson disappeared in the second and third periods, shooting a combined 1-for-5 and committing five turnovers.

But there were signs of a recovery in the third. Jackson didn’t cough the ball up once in the final 17:45 of the second half. His one make came with the shot clock in single digits and against some tight defense from Pierce [3, 3:19]. And his specialty, the touch pass, led to an open 3-pointer for Marco Belinelli [3, 0:55.7].

When Jackson launched an ill-conceived drive down the lane, was blocked by Leon Powe and unleashed a frustration foul on Brian Scalabrine in the scramble for the rebound [4, 9:15], it seemed like Friday’s top storyline would be how the captain was still not fit for duty.

A layup off a crisp entry pass from Anthony Morrow got Jackson rolling [4, 8:42], and he didn’t stop the rest of the way.

The Warriors trailed by five before that bucket; they led by nine a little less than 4 1/2 minutes later, with Jackson scoring 13 of Golden State’s 18 points and assisting on three more — a trey from Kelenna Azubuike [4, 7:46].

Jackson drained a pair of 3-pointers of his own in that stretch, one with Pierce’s hand in his face on the left wing [4, 7:03], the other after getting sprung from a nice back pick by Belinelli [4, 5:32]. He undoubtedly got lucky when he rolled in a 10-foot fadeaway over Kevin Garnett to give the Warriors their first lead since less than 3 minutes into the game [4, 6:03], but Jackson is a guy who, frankly, makes his own luck sometimes.

I’d be fascinated to see what Jackson’s shooting percentage is on attempts where the Warriors are within five points of the opposition (either ahead or behind) in the second half. Anecdotally, I think it would be far higher than the 38.5 percent he’s put up as a whole this season.

The Lineup Project
Catching up after the Christmas holiday, we have three games’ worth of data and some new year-to-date numbers:

12/22/08: Magic 113, Warriors 81

12/23/08: Heat 96, Warriors 88

12/26/08: Warriors 99, Celtics 89

Year-to-date through 31 games (per 48 minutes)

Let’s give credit where it’s due: Without the performance of the Small group against Boston on Friday, the Warriors don’t even come close to mounting that comeback. Golden State was helped by Doc Rivers’ insistence on sticking with his own small group, despite the obvious fact that they were dog-tired and thus unable to hang with the hosts’ unit, but that shouldn’t detract from the quality of Warriors’ smallball-driven comeback.

With the blowout in Orlando and two other subpar performances, the Medium lineup (two bigs, not including any Turiaf-Biedrins pairings, plus three wings) has come back to Earth and the Smalls have gotten somewhat closer to the team totals (Golden State is averaging 103.7 ppg while giving up 109.5 for a delta of minus-5.8).

Monta’s return a month off?
Don Nelson said Friday that he didn’t expect injured guard Monta Ellis to play — or possibly even practice — for at least a month. I’ve heard Jan. 15 knocked around by members of the organization as a potential return time, but that’s been a very fluid date from the get-go.

Whenever Ellis does come back, it will be interesting to see how the Warriors’ standing in the standings factors into the decision.

As of today, it looks like a nine-team race for eight playoff spots in the West, with the Warriors already 9 games behind two teams tied for seventh: Dallas (17-12) and Utah (18-13).

On the other hand, Golden State is already 5 1/2 games behind Oklahoma City in the race for the other extreme — the worst record and corresponding highest concentration of pingpong balls in the 2009 draft lottery.

Twenty years ago, back when fantasy sports involved buying USA Today every Tuesday and crunching your own stats on a Mac SE (with a 30-meg hard drive!), one of the originators of the field — Dan Okrent, who would go on to become the New York Times’ first ombudsman, among other accomplishments in journalism — described a place he dubbed “The Fenokee Triangle,” where you’re never quite good enough to compete for the top spot, yet never bad enough to want to tear things down entirely.

It feels like the Warriors are at risk of once again taking up residence in the NBA’s version of that spot, winning too many games to grab an impact player, but not enough to be anything more than first-round fodder for the Lakers, Spurs or Hornets.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

(Apologies for the delay. Technological challenges while at a family gathering for Thanksgiving.)

“A man’s got to know his limitations.”

We begin our discussion of the Warriors’ 119-111 loss to the Boston Celtics with Det. Harry Callahan, a Bay Area icon in his own (albeit fictional) right. This is not because he blew up Hal Holbrook’s car in the same ruthless fashion that the Celtics mangled the Warriors’ offense when it counted on Wednesday.

It’s because of Don Nelson’s assessment of the performance of his team, which was coming off a 24-point drubbing in Washington just 24 hours earlier: “Compared to our last game, we played about as well as we can play.”

Was this the best the Warriors could play? Well, was it, punk?

To tell you the truth, in all the excitement, I kind of lost track.

In the “Yes” column:

** You can’t reasonably expect Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette to be more efficient on offense than they were last night: a combined 23-for-38 from the floor (5-for-10 on 3s) and 11-for-15 from the line.

Maggette, who started back at his preferred small forward spot and stayed there for his first 23 minutes, was attacking the basket again with some verve. When he wasn’t doing that, he was taking jump shots that made sense in the offense, rather than being obviously forced.

Jackson continues to hit shots of the “no-no-no-yes!” variety; his success with fadeaways from 18 feet out is actually starting to make me wonder if he can knock that down consistently.

** Ronny Turiaf had another strong performance at the defensive end, swatting five shots in 22 minutes although an injury to his right wrist appeared to curtail his effectiveness in the late going.

In the “No” column:

** Jamal Crawford went 5-for-17 from the floor (2-for-8 on treys) with four turnovers and way too many pullup-and-let-fly 3-point misses to offset his six assists. And Rajon Rondo had his way with him at the other end of the floor.

** The young forwards made no real contribution. Brandan Wright started but was yanked early for Anthony Randolph, who tossed out two quick fouls (and engaged in a staring contest with Kevin Garnett) before heading back to the bench, never to be seen again.

** Even after going big for the first 34 minutes, the Warriors were still outrebounded, 47-34. Of course, more than half that deficit was rung up during the final 7 minutes, when Boston pounded Golden State’s smallball look by an 11-4 count.

Not coincidentally, 11 of the Celtics’ final 19 points — taking them from a 100-102 deficit to victory — were of the second-chance variety.

In sum: No, I wouldn’t say this is the best the Warriors can play right now. But I will allow that, other than perhaps the win over Portland, it’s the best we’ve seen them play so far this season. And the fact that it still came up short shows just how far the Warriors have to go before they can seriously consider the playoffs as a possibility.

Notes
I loved Turiaf butt-checking Garnett out of the way to clear the space for a second-quarter layup. Too funny. His clank from 17 feet out was not as humorous; he’s now 3-for-11 for the season beyond 15 feet after shooting a very credible 42.6 percent from that range last season. . . . When I see Garnett start to overaggressively body up his man in the backcourt, all I can wonder is, “Does anybody else get away without a foul call here?” Honestly, if Jackson plants himself a millimeter from Ray Allen while the pair are still 60 feet from the hoop, you don’t think the whistles would sound off immediately? . . . I don’t know if it’s simply a byproduct the increased attention that’s being to him, but Andris Biedrins is just kind of treading water right now in terms of his production.

The Lineup Project
Continuing our look at the Warriors’ use of small, medium and large lineups. For Wednesday:

Lineup        Score             Time
Large         N/A                N/A
Medium      81-80, GSW    33:44
Small         39-30, BOS     14:16

It’s interesting to note that among the Medium lineups — anything two big men on the floor — the most successful pairing was the largest. During the 16:17 Turiaf and Biedrins were in the game together, the Warriors held a 43-32 advantage.

Without Monta . . .
The Warriors made good my prediction of a loss, keeping them on pace for an 8-18 start to the season while they wait for Monta Ellis’ suspension to end.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

Without even a pretense of having something at the top, here’s today’s installment of your faithful reporter’s quest to prognosticate all 1,230 NBA regular-season games this season:

76ers (2-5) at Raptors (4-3), 4:05 p.m.
Pick: Raptors -6
Kevin Garnett? Pfffft. Now, if Jose Calderon can get the ever-placid Elton Brand to wag a finger in his face, that’d be something impressive.

Hawks (6-0) at Celtics (7-1), 4:35 p.m.
Pick: Celtics -10.5
If Atlanta really can be this good for 82 games, I might have to seriously revise my opinion of Mike Bibby.

Pacers (3-3) at Nets (2-4), 4:35 p.m.
Pick: Nets +1.5
I shouldn’t fall into this trap, but I’m going to anyway.

Lakers (6-0) at Hornets (4-2), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Lakers +1
L.A. is 5-1 against the spread this season, and the only loss was by one point (they beat Denver by 7 while laying 8).

Trail Blazers (4-3) at Heat (4-3), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Heat -1.5
Greg Oden comes back, but for how long? Three games? Six?

Spurs (2-4) at Bucks (3-5), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Spurs -2.5
So, was that win over New York an aberration, or a return to form for the Spurs’ shooters?

Magic (4-3) at Thunder (1-6), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Magic -7
Nick Collison should get paid double for the abuse he’s about to take.

Jazz (6-1) at Wizards (0-5), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Jazz -4.5
Has a team gone from splashing out huge wads of cash to fighting to keep from falling into inevitable rebuilding mode faster than the Wizards?

Knicks (4-3) at Grizzlies (3-5), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Knicks +4.5
I hadn’t realized until right now that the Knicks really don’t have a single legitimate shot-blocker. They’re still in single-digits as a team (9), through seven games. Makes me wonder if Mike D’Antoni told Chris Duhon on the day he signed, “Welcome aboard. Don’t ever, ever, EVER, EVER, EVER let your man get by you.”

Kings (3-5) at Clippers (1-6), 7:35 p.m.
Pick: Clippers -7
The Kings disappointed me last night by kicking away what should have been a sure cover in the final minutes. I’m not sure if this is the right response, but so be it.

Rockets (4-3) at Suns (6-2), 7:35 p.m.
Picks: Rockets +3.5
This is one of about four games I’ve flipped back and forth. I’ll be fascinated to watch Matt Barnes and Ron Artest, two of the league’s more combustible personalities on the floor, going head-to-head.

Yesterday: 6-2
Season record: 50-54-1

– Geoff