48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

The frontline void for the Warriors is kind of like the U.S. school system: You can throw however much money and manpower you want at it, and it just doesn’t seem to make a whit of difference.

The latest attempt to stem this tide is Jermareo Davidson, who was originally selected 36th overall in the 2007 draft by the Warriors but was traded before the night was out to the Charlotte Bobcats, along with Jason Richardson, for Brandan Wright.

Davidson, brought in today on a 10-day contract, essentially replaces Richard Hendrix, who was cut loose on Dec. 18 when Monta Ellis had to be transferred back from the suspended list to the inactive squad. It’s a funny coincidence, since they played together at Alabama for two seasons and were the two leading scorers on the Tide’s 2006-07 team. Here are the stats from that season (and remember that Hendrix was a sophomore, while Davidson was a senior):

Many fans have questioned why on Earth the Warriors would waive Hendrix (whose $442,114 salary was fully guaranteed) without seeing him play once in a real NBA game, only to turn around two weeks later and sign another big man who could — if the team chooses to retain Davidson for the rest of the season — cost another roughly $350,000.

There’s either one of two things at play:

A) The Warriors simply need another large body to get through tonight’s contest, since Wright and Rob Kurz are both banged up, Anthony Randolph is on double-not-so-secret probation, Corey Maggette hasn’t played in nearly a month, Kelenna Azubuike will get eaten alive by Paul Millsap and Andris Biedrins and Ronny Turiaf can’t each play 48 minutes — unless the foul disqualification limit is doubled to 12.

Or. . .

B) Don Nelson likes Davidson more than he liked Hendrix. A lot more.

I can believe at least half of choice B, because Nelson clearly didn’t think much of Hendrix’s ability, right from the start. Back in October, after three weeks of working with Hendrix, before the regular season had even begun, Nelson had this to say: “He has an NBA body and NBA desire but is not NBA ready.”

Asked if Hendrix had NBA talent, Nelson said, “Not yet.”

The coach’s attitude was unmoved by what he saw when he watched Hendrix and DeMarcus Nelson play for the Bakersfield Jam in mid-December, according to Matt Steinmetz: “I think the school is still out on Hendrix. He’s got a lot of work to do. As far as the body and rebounding, he’s got two things going for him. But he’s got to learn a lot of other stuff.”

Is Davidson going to be any better? Certainly, at 6-10 and with a 7-4 wingspan — a quarter-inch longer than Wright and a full inch better than Randolph — Davidson has the potential to fill a “traditional” power forward spot.

But I’ll believe it when I see it.

Winners and losers?
The most obvious winner is Davidson, who was released in training camp this season by the Bobcats. He’s almost certainly going to get a chance to play over Randolph, and I suspect could pass Wright on the depth chart, especially if Wright keeps getting into early foul trouble.

Another potential winner is Maggette. I know Don Nelson has said he’s not going to overplay Maggette this time around, but I recall he said that about Baron Davis last season just before grinding BD into the ground with endless streams of 38-, 40- and 42-minute games. If Davidson flops, that will open the door for Maggette to get another shot at power forward, where there are oodles of minutes to be had.

And you can’t put up numbers if you don’t get minutes.

The biggest loser is also plain: DeMarcus Nelson, the Oakland native who got cut to make way for Davidson. Don Nelson said from the start that it would take a year, at a minimum, to remake DeMarcus’ shot, which is why I found it strange they kept him, let alone started him on Opening Night.

Even with the emergency revamp that took place in the D-League, Nelson’s shot is still too inaccurate and too slow to make it at this level right now, as evidenced by his shot chart:

In case those numbers are too fuzzy to read, that’s 20-35 (57.1 percent) on layups and dunks, 4-18 (22.2 percent) on everything else.

Steinmetz pointed to Randolph as being on the downside of this decision, but I don’t really agree. That theory, to me, flips the causality; it’s not that Randolph is going to play zero minutes because Davidson is on the roster — Davison is on the roster precisely because Randolph is already guaranteed not to play, a fact Nelson made clear with his public trashing of Randolph.

(Wouldn’t it be fascinating if tri-captains Biedrins, Turiaf and Stephen Jackson all went on the record tonight as saying that, since Nelson left the decision up to them and the assistant coaches, Randolph should play? How hilarious would that be?)

The biggest potential loser is Wright. Nelson has made it clear he’s willing to play Wright, but only begrudgingly, and always with a shorter leash than any of the veterans (Maggette being the most pertinent example). If Davidson can shoot with regularity the 15-footer that Wright really can’t (not with any consistency, anyways), is there any doubt he’ll be starting for this team in the near future?

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

In 18 months as an NBA player, Marco Belinelli’s stock has gone through more roles than a TV character actor: Summer League star, Jason Richardson replacement, defensive sieve, bench ornament, unhappy camper, trade bait.

So is Belinelli’s latest turn — reborn playmaker — just another phase, destined to vanish like the next full moon?

It’s still too early to tell for certain, but in the 13 games since Don Nelson refocused the Warriors’ attack, Belinelli has already weathered one dip and ridden it out. I figured that after back-to-back poor performances in Florida — combined 7-for-24 shooting with four turnovers against five assists in Orlando and Miami — Belinelli’s run was at an end, and that he would go back to being a pumpkin, metaphorically speaking.

Instead, he had one of his two best games of the season in the Warriors’ 117-111 win over Toronto on Monday: 23 points, 6-12 FG, 5-8 3FG, 6-6 FT, 6 AST, 2 TO.

After that game, Warriors coach Don Nelson said Belinelli was succeeding in the team’s revamped, Euro-style offense — 47.5 FG, 40.0 3FG, 16.0 PPG, 3.3 APG — because “he’s a much better shooter on the move than he is stationary.”

I disagree. Belinelli has tamed the wild leg kick that used to punctuate his shooting motion, but he still often twists his lower body to the left when he fires while moving, both off the dribble and situations where he catches and shoots on a cut.

In the Toronto game, for example, Belinelli was 1-for-6 off dribble-drives, 1-for-2 while catching on the move, and 4-for-4 (three of those from deep) on standing shots. All three of those treys came on plays that began with Stephen Jackson driving and drawing multiple defenders, then kicking out, either directly to Belinelli or through an intermediary.

The bigger surprise on offense has been Belinelli’s emergence as a passer. He’s never going to be a straight point guard in the NBA, not unless he significantly upgrades his open-court ballhandling, but as a half-court initiator, he’s just a half-step behind Jackson and Jamal Crawford in terms of finding open shooters.

The style of Belinelli’s passing makes it seem as though he’s cavalierly throwing the ball around. Just as many Italians would find speech without the punctuation provided by their hand gestures to be unacceptably bland, Belinelli seems to use a two-handed chest pass only as a means of last resort. Witness Belinelli’s behind-the-back dish in the lane to Brandan Wright on the left baseline [1, 6:45] (there was no assist because Wright allowed Chris Bosh to erase the shot), or his one-handed whip pass to Andris Biedrins for a layup [3, 6:07]. That dish was zipped into a tiny opening created when Andrea Bargnani briefly lost eye contact with the ball and couldn’t quite recover in time.

At the defensive end, Belinelli is much improved from last year, when he looked timid on many occasions and, even more often, just befuddled. Belinelli is best utilized against a bigger player, rather than chasing a quicker man, although he did a credible job shadowing Rajon Rondo for some time in the Warriors’ win against Boston.

The one thing he’s doing spectacularly well at the defensive end is eliciting offensive fouls from players who don’t have the energy or willingness to deal with his peskiness.

Against Boston, he drew six offensive fouls:

1, 3:45: Tony Allen tries to come up from the right block while Leon Powe shuttles down from the elbow to switch places. Belinelli, who had been playing Allen on the high side, gets his right arm around Allen to prevent him from going wide, then falls over backwards as Allen extends his arms to get free, directly in front of referee Greg Willard. FOUL OR FLOP? Flop. Belinelli was moving backwards, not set, while impeding Allen’s movement.

3, 8:37: Ray Allen initiates from the top of the key with a pass to Kevin Garnett in the high right post, then loops left around a Powe pick. Belinelli does not slow in the slightest and caroms wildly off Powe to the ground, doing a 180 spin in midair. As before, this whole minidrama plays out practically in the lap of an official — this time, Leon Wood — who adjudicates in favor of Belinelli. FOUL OR FLOP? It may not be an outright flop, but it ain’t much of a foul, either. Belinelli made little attempt to avoid a pretty well-established screen. This probably should have been a no-call, but those (idiotically) no longer exist in this league.

3, 7:39: Ray Allen comes top-key right and faces the basket as Rondo initiates, with Belinelli standing chest-to-chest. As Allen tries to make a cut to his right without the ball, he uses his left arm to hook Belinelli in an attempt to create separation. FOUL OR FLOP? Foul, and an especially galling mistake given that Allen had a Kevin Garnett screen looming in the near future to rub out Belinelli.

4, 9:29: Tony Allen tries to ball-handle around a Paul Pierce screen at the left elbow. Pierce leans hard to his right to deliver the shoulder block to Belinelli, who once again ricochets hard in the opposite direction after contact. FOUL OR FLOP? Foul, because Pierce is leaning at about a 30-degree angle to deliver the shot. If he’d stayed vertical, it probably would have been a clean screen.

4, 5:29: A pure frustration foul on the part of Ray Allen, who is clearly bothered by Belinelli’s body contact while attempting to establish position on the left wing and flails with both arms to incur the whistle. FOUL OR FLOP? Foul.

4, 4:39: Kevin Garnett clocks Belinelli with another frustration reaction, although this one at least merits a whistle. FOUL OR FLOP? Foul. (Three minutes later, apparently unsatisfied, Garnett bodychecks Belinelli, a move that did not get called but pretty clearly should have been.)

Against the Lakers, Belinelli goaded Luke Walton into pushing off to create space. Against the Raptors, he just flat-out flopped for calls against Bargnani (attempting to post up Belinelli on a switch) and Bosh (trying to screen for Jason Kapono).

There have been plenty of comparisons drawn between Belinelli and Manu Ginobili, but aside from prominent noses, Italian heritage and one common move — driving down and across the lane from the right elbow with two giant steps to set up a floater from the left block — I don’t see it.

Ginobili is much more of a driver (his career FTA-per-minute rate is nearly three times that of Belinelli) and a far superior rebounder to Belinelli, who, in turn, is a more natural 3-point shooter (it took Ginobili five years to crack the 39-percent barrier on treys in the NBA; Belinelli shot 39.0 last season and is at 39.5 this year).

I would argue Belinelli is more in the mold of a Bruce Bowen or Derek Fisher, at least defensively: Someone who can get very handsy, willing to try to drive an opponent crazy, and then taking advantage by embellishing on the ensuing contact to draw offensive fouls.

I’m still not convinced that, once Monta Ellis gets healthy, Belinelli’s playing time won’t shrink. But he’s got the better part of another month, most likely, to prove me wrong.

The Lineup Project
It’s a triumphant return for smallball, which has finally passed up the “traditional” lineup in terms of YTD effectiveness. (The Small group is now minus-7.1 per 48 minutes; the Medium group is minus-8.1.)

Programming note
I’m going to a New Year’s Eve celebration, so there won’t be a live take on the Thunder game. I’ll check it out on tape and get back to you.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

My take hasn’t changed from what I wrote several weeks ago on the subject of Stephen Jackson’s extension with the Warriors, which after weeks in the works was finally signed Monday.

In terms of pure production, Jackson deserves to be the highest-paid player on this team (or perhaps second-highest, if Monta Ellis had kept himself healthy). It’s almost an insult that he’s slated to pull down the fifth-highest salary this season behind Ellis, Al Harrington, Andris Biedrins and Corey Maggette.

But by extending Jackson now, the Warriors are tossing aside their previously iron-clad rules of dealing with a player only when the team has used up all of its possible leverage. I’ll be fascinated to hear the explanation for this exception, if any is forthcoming on the matter.

One interesting note: Jackson told me a couple weeks back that he wasn’t asking for the max, but the reported numbers — three years for $28 million — don’t reflect any money left on the table. The most the Warriors are allowed to give Jackson under the Collective Bargaining Agreement is $27.8 million — $8.45 million in 2010-11, $9.26 million in 2011-12 and $10.06 million in 2012-13.

Outside of the reasoning for why the Warriors would break with their own philosophy, here’s the biggest question: How will the signing impact the Warriors in the summer of 2010, when a whole raft of top-notch free agents is scheduled to flood the market?

There is no real hope that a player with the stature of LeBron James will be willing to come to Oakland when the lights of New York are beckoning to him. But having maneuverability in that timeframe — when teams will potentially be looking to offload players in order to make a run at UFAs such as Paul Pierce, Jason Richardson, Josh Howard, Dirk Nowitzki, Tayshaun Prince, Yao Ming, Kobe Bryant, Michael Redd, Amare Stoudemire, Tony Parker, Chris Bosh or Caron Butler — would afford a franchise the opportunity to recast its core, if that was deemed necessary.

With Jackson in the fold, the Warriors are set to spend $51.5 million in 2010-11 for an eight-man core of Jackson, Ellis, Biedrins, Maggette, Kelenna Azubuike, Ronny Turiaf, Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph.

Based on the trend line of the last few years, my guesstimate of the 2010-11 cap number would be roughly $64 million. (That’s assuming the league’s revenue total continues to ramp up, which is probably on the optimistic side of things, given the economy’s disastrous free fall).

That sounds like a fair amount of room, but it’s really not. To start with, it doesn’t include several other possible expenditures, such as C.J. Watson (RFA in ’09), Anthony Morrow (RFA ’10), Marco Belinelli (potential team option for ’10-’11), Biedrins’ incentives, and a No. 1 pick from the ’09 draft (unless it goes to the Nets as payment for Marcus Williams).

Even if the Warriors cut all those extraneous guys loose and just went with their eight-man core, they still would need to spend probably $5 million filling out the remainder of the roster, leaving themselves $7.5 million, tops, under the cap.

Without Jackson, that figure would be $16 million or so.

Plenty of things can change between Nov. 17, 2008 and July 1, 2010. The Warriors could remake themselves in the meantime through a trade similar to the eight-player blockbuster that first brought Jackson to the Bay Area.

But if they keep this core together for another 19 months, signing Jackson now will probably preclude the Warriors from making a big splash later.

NOTES: Jackson got poked in the left eye during the Clippers game on Saturday, but reported no damage. It’s the second time he’s been hit there this season; he also took a shot in the open practice three weeks ago.

“This eye’s been having a bad season so far,” Jackson said. “But as long as I can see out of it, I’m happy about it.”

So, you’re not going to go for a James Worthy goggle look?

“No goggles, no,” Jackson said, shaking his head to punctuate his point. “No-no-no-no. Never that, never that. No. I’m not going to be like Rip Hamilton, where my nose was broken eight years ago and I still wear a mask. I’m not going to do that. The only way I’ll wear a patch is if my eye’s closed and the doctors say (it’s necessary). I’m not going to no nothing. I’d rather stay with Captain Jack than Pirate Jack.”

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

OAKLAND — If 3-pointers represent the fast food of NBA offenses, then last season’s Warriors were, collectively speaking, a cholesterol-choked, fat-filled heart attack waiting to happen.

Golden State’s gunners jacked up 2,185 attempts from beyond the 3-point arc in 2007-08, establishing a new all-time NBA single-season record in the process. The total would have probably been even higher if they hadn’t made a draft-day deal that sent Jason Richardson to Charlotte — where he launched 599 treys for the Bobcats, tops in the league.

This season, the Warriors’ attack looks like it’s on a double-strength regimen of Lipitor. And it’s Dr. Don Nelson who’s writing that prescription.

“Hopefully, (the 3-pointer) won’t be as big a weapon,” Nelson said. “I thought we fell in love too much with the 3 last year occasionally. The guys that can shoot it, when they’re open, they have a green light when they have a rhythm shot, but we’re not going to set up plays for it.”

Golden State – which has led the NBA for two years running in 3-point attempts — ranked eighth among NBA teams in terms of 3-point shots taken during this year’s preseason, more than 50 percent behind the league-leading Knicks of Mike D’Antoni.

Where the ‘07-08 team counted six legitimate 3-point threats among its eight regular rotation players, this year’s edition has only five in the top nine. And that math is misleadingly close, because this year’s crop of shooters includes Al Harrington (who detested his niche as a 3-point-shooting big man last season), Corey Maggette (who said Monday that he would rather drive than hoist from distance), and C.J. Watson (who’s taken all of 26 treys in his NBA career).

That leaves just Stephen Jackson and Kelenna Azubuike to uphold the traditions of the NBA’s most prolific long-range squad, which lost Baron Davis (525 3-point attempts last season), Matt Barnes (181) and Mickael Pietrus (182) this summer.

“I’m not really thinking about it like, ‘We lost a bunch of (guys who shot) 3s, so I’ve got to get some more 3s up,’” Azubuike said. “I feel like we can score in different ways. I feel like I can score in different ways. I don’t have to shoot 3s all the time. . . . Make the right play, take the right shot. Don’t force a 3 because you feel we need to get some up.”

Having taken a big jump to a career high 38.4 percent shooting on 3-pointers last season with the Clippers, Maggette would seem to be a good choice to take up some of the slack, but the man who took the sixth-most free-throw attempts in the league last season has other things in mind.

“I’ll shoot 3s if I’m open . . . but that’s just not my game,” Maggette said. “I can do it, but I prefer getting into the paint and hitting some mid-range jump shots. That’s just my game.

“I think Jack and Al have the opportunity where if they can come down and they have an open shot, they’re going to shoot it.”

So what does this all mean for Nellieball as we know it?

“I think the style is going to be different from what you’re accustomed to in the last couple of years,” Maggette said. “It’s going to be pretty much the same as far as the way Nellie wants to play, but it won’t be as fast. It’s going to be a slower pace. I think we will get faster when we get Monta (Ellis) back, but right now it probably won’t be as fast as what you guys expect it to be.”

NOTES: Maggette (strained right hamstring) practiced Monday, his first full-speed workout since the Warriors’ final exhibition game on Oct. 21, but is not yet certain of being able to play in the Warriors’ regular-season opener on Wednesday. He was able to run without feeling any pulling from the hamstring, but the next hurdle is whether he’ll be able to explode to the rim. Maggette expects to test that Tuesday in practice. “I take today as an improvement, being able to run up and down the floor,” Maggette said. “I’m not going to rush it. Hamstrings are about patience. I’m not a patient person, but in these situations, I have to be.” . . . Tickets are still available for Opening Night against the New Orleans Hornets. Visit www.warriors.com or call 1-888-GSW-HOOP.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

ANALYSIS

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

OAKLAND — It’s no secret that Stephen Jackson, the Warrior with the greatest responsibilities on the court but only the fifth-largest paycheck, is seeking an extension to his current deal. Acting as his own agent, Jackson has been in negotiations directly with team president Robert Rowell on a pact that could keep him in Oakland until age 35. Since Jackson is already under contract for two more seasons, at a total of $14.8 million, the most he can hope to get tacked on is three seasons worth $27.8 million.

Talks have been steadily progressing, and though this is just as an educated guess, I’d say it’s a better than 50-50 proposition that something gets done before the Warriors’ season opens Wednesday.

Does Jackson deserve to be paid an average of $9 million per year?

Absolutely. This is a guy who can score 20 points a game, can defend the opponent’s best player, almost regardless of position, and rarely misses time due to injury.

Does it fit into the team’s philosophy, as it’s been practiced over the last three years?

Absolutely not.

With Monta Ellis out, there is no question that Jackson is the Warriors’ most important player, and if they do make a return to the playoffs, it will undoubtedly be in large part because of Jackson dragging them there with a combination of scoring, playmaking and defending similar to what Baron Davis gave them down the stretch in 2006-07.

But if the Warriors choose to give Jackson an extension in the next week, then there will be some serious explaining for Rowell to do — because such a move would represent the antithesis of every salary-related choice the Warriors have made since Oct. 31, 2005.

That was the day the Warriors handed a five-year, $45 million extension to Mike Dunleavy, a forward with three middling seasons under his belt, to cap a spending and trading spree of more than $300 million in which Golden State netted long-term rights to the services of Dunleavy, Davis, Derek Fisher, Troy Murphy, Adonal Foyle and Jason Richardson.

However, after that well-compensated group led the franchise to another 38-44 season in 2005-06, Rowell ushered in a new era of fiscal responsibility. Underperforming players with oversized contracts — Fisher, Foyle, Murphy and Dunleavy — were traded or bought out. Richardson was dumped for draft pick Brandan Wright in part to help free up cash.

The idea was not just to stay under the luxury-tax threshold, but also to maintain maximum flexibility while doing it. No longer was the team willing to be locked into a bundle of long-term contracts that left it with no room to maneuver.

Free agents felt the squeeze as the team followed Rowell’s course: Mickael Pietrus and Matt Barnes were made to eat one-year deals before leaving for greener pastures. Andris Biedrins, who was signed to a six-year, $54 million deal this summer, had to wait a year to get his security after the Warriors tried to get him in 2007 for roughly $45 million over five years, according to sources at the time.

Most famously, Rowell was reportedly unwilling to commit a fully guaranteed $39 million to Davis for the three seasons after this one, prompting Davis to opt out of the final year of his deal and jump to the Clippers for a five-year, $65 million contract.

Basically, everyone had to earn their pay up until the moment they signed their deal. If Jackson gets three additional years while still having two on his current deal, that streak will be dead.

I asked Jackson earlier this week, why should you be the exception to the rule?

“Because I think I’ve proved myself since I’ve been here,” Jackson said. “For a perfect example: This team didn’t have a winning record until we got here. We didn’t make the playoffs in what, 12, 13 years? They didn’t have 48 wins in 13 years. So I think since I’ve been here, I helped turn this organization around. And I’m not saying I did it by myself, but I had a big part in it.

“I just think that I’m one of those guys that, if a guy deserves something, I think he should get it.”

Since arriving in Golden State, Jackson has rehabilitated his image, and in doing so, has become the Warriors’ ace in the hole, not just on the court, but from a public-relations perspective as well. Rowell is closer to Jackson than any other player in the locker room, and Jackson has more love for the Warriors — who provided support for Jackson’s recently opened charitable foundation — than he has had for any of his other NBA employers.

Maybe all those reasons, combined with Jackson’s play on the court, are important enough to convince the Warriors to set aside their guiding principle.

We’ll find out soon enough.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net