(aka How To Lose Fake Money And Real Credibility, Part 35, today’s installment of your faithful reporter’s quest to prognosticate all 1,230 NBA regular-season games this season)

As usual, TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott was first on the scene this morning, putting together a list of potential landing spots for Stephon Marbury, assuming he and the Knicks agree to stand down from their current Defcon-1 status.

Personally, I like three options the best:

1) Miami. I am not really sold on Mario Chalmers/Chris Quinn combo at the point, and Dwyane Wade is certainly going to be able to keep any ego outburst in check.

2) Orlando. To me, the Magic are a little too vanilla. It’s one thing to be even-keeled, but if you don’t mix that with a killer instinct (i.e., Tim Duncan and the Spurs) you get a team that’s just not tough enough. I think here, Marbury might bring some swagger with him that rubs off on the club, similar to Stephen Jackson’s effect on the Warriors, or what Ron Artest has brought to the Rockets this season.

3) Philadelphia. If the 76ers aren’t freaking out, they ought to be. They’re 7-10, and three of those wins came at home against the Thunder, the Clippers and the Warriors. They’ve got a brutal roadie coming up before and after New Year’s (Denver, Salt Lake City, Los Angeles, Dallas and San Antonio, with the Clippers being the only thing standing between them and an 0-5 spot), Louis Williams was MIA for a good three weeks, Elton Brand still isn’t getting shots where he’s most comfortable, and Andre Miller will have to spend the rest of the season living down this:

For what it’s worth, I think the Warriors can safely be judged a Marbury-free zone now that they’ve traded for Jamal Crawford. Even if it would be on a minimum-wage pro-rated deal for the rest of the year, there is still only one ball in use at a time, right?

Onto the picks, and let’s not discuss my record, because I don’t want to jinx anything:

Heat (8-9) at Warriors (5-12), 7:35 p.m.
Pick: Heat -1.5
I don’t think the Warriors are as bad as they seemed on that road trip. I don’t think they’re good enough to win here, however.

Timberwolves (4-11) at Bobcats (5-11), 4:05 p.m.
Pick: Bobcats -3.5
One of the league’s worst offenses (Charlotte) against a weak defense (Minnesota) that just got worse with Corey Brewer’s injury.

Magic (13-4) at Celtics (16-2), 4:35 p.m.
Pick:…

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

Henry Abbott over at TrueHoop wrote a nice (and completely correct) piece about how the boxscore may have fooled people into thinking Greg Oden had a great game against the Warriors on Tuesday, when in point of fact just the opposite was true, and Portland probably would have been better served to keep him on the bench.

The twist? Abbott, a true Blazer fanatic, had NO PROBLEM with the decision to keep Oden out there.

“I’m thrilled at Nate McMillan’s conviction to spend time on Oden, and to keep featuring him even if it costs the team games. Even if the costs are non-trivial, getting Greg Oden confident is one of the best investments a coach can make, because he’s only showing us a fraction of what’s to come.”

I bring this up not just as a means for sucking up to one of the NBA blogosphere’s tastemakers (although that’s always a nice side benefit).

It’s interesting because I think Abbott’s sentiments match the feelings of Warrior fans who want to see more of a certain second-year forward. Substitute Don Nelson’s name for McMillan’s and Brandan Wright’s name for Oden, and you have a pretty good idea of how that faction of Golden State’s faithful look at this team right now.

The only problem?

Nelson is in thrall to the mismatch. It’s practically an addiction for him. And that’s why the allure of playing Corey Maggette, all 6-foot-6 of him, at power forward is just too strong for Nelson to withstand.

Taking Al Harrington out of the equation — thus leaving Nelson with the options of playing Wright 30 minutes a night at the 4 vs. Maggette — just cleared the way for Nelson to go small.

(Cynical folks might think that’s why Nellie was oh-so-willing to give Harrington as many minutes as possible in the first few games: Either Harrington would give him great production, which makes Nelson’s job easier, or he would bomb completely, helping Nelson usher Maggette into his new spot.)

Team president Robert Rowell said that he gave Nelson an extension through the 2010-11 season in part so that “it wasn’t all about picking up those 53 wins (to catch Lenny Wilkens as the NBA’s all-time leader in coaching victories) all within the first 53 games of the season.”

But that’s exactly the way Nelson coaches. He’s said it himself: “I’m only going to bring the guys along that are ready to play in…