By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

I have to admit, I didn’t think much of all the praise being lavished upon the Warriors in the wake of their two “close” defeats in Cleveland and Boston earlier this week. I thought the only things missing from all the happy chatter were some freshly-sectioned oranges and homemade Rice Krispie treats, because it all had that air of youth-soccerdom: Good job, way to go, you tried hard and that’s what matters.

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By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

Warriors forward Brandan Wright is 6-foot-10 and endowed with a 7-foot-3 3/4 wingspan that was just a half-inch short of matching that of the No. 1 pick in his draft class, Greg Oden.

So why is it that Wright can’t seem to put those tools to use fixing the Warriors’ recurring problems on the defensive glass?

I wrote a couple of weeks ago about the Warriors’ historically bad defensive rebounding rate (they’re on pace to post the league’s worst DRR since the 1999-2000 Mavericks) and Golden State has barely ticked the meter in seven games since then, upping their mark from 67.0 to 67.1 percent.

There has been some interesting individual movement, however, as charted here:

Marco Belinelli’s minus-1.8 drop is fairly staggering, but the most distressing item, if you’re a Warriors fan, a Warriors coach or, say, a second-year Warriors forward out of North Carolina, is the erosion of Wright’s defensive rebounding. He now ranks behind Ronny Turiaf (not a huge problem, given Ronny’s improvement of late) and even Corey Maggette, which is a blazing, 40-by-40-foot red flag, given how badly Maggette fared on the boards on his one healthy leg.

Shockingly, according to data at 82games.com, the Warriors are 4.1 percent worse at defensive rebounding with Wright on the floor (63.1 to 67.2). The only guy on the team with a worse differential than that is Turiaf (62.9 to 67.6).

The problem came back into focus after the Warriors were ripped yet again by opposing rebounders — this time for 14 offensive boards and 25 second-chance points by Oklahoma City a 107-100 victory Wednesday for the NBA’s worst team.

Jeff Green had five offensive boards, and Chris Wilcox had four. Wright, meanwhile, had just three defensive rebounds, and while part of that was due to a disparity in minutes — Green played 43:47, Wilcox 36:01 and Wright 19:58 — that’s not the whole story.

Here’s a collection of observations on the wrongs of Wright’s rebounding against OKC:

1, 11:17: Wright doesn’t get credit for one, but it sure looks like he blocks Green. In any case, the miss ticks off Wright’s right hand, although it’s eventually scooped up by Belinelli.

1, 10:08: Kevin Durant beats Belinelli to the R baseline, requiring Andris Biedrins to rotate over and close off the lane. When Biedrins leaves his man, Robert Swift, Wright is stationed about 10 feet from the hoop, looking over his left shoulder at the unfolding play while reaching…

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

Henry Abbott over at TrueHoop wrote a nice (and completely correct) piece about how the boxscore may have fooled people into thinking Greg Oden had a great game against the Warriors on Tuesday, when in point of fact just the opposite was true, and Portland probably would have been better served to keep him on the bench.

The twist? Abbott, a true Blazer fanatic, had NO PROBLEM with the decision to keep Oden out there.

“I’m thrilled at Nate McMillan’s conviction to spend time on Oden, and to keep featuring him even if it costs the team games. Even if the costs are non-trivial, getting Greg Oden confident is one of the best investments a coach can make, because he’s only showing us a fraction of what’s to come.”

I bring this up not just as a means for sucking up to one of the NBA blogosphere’s tastemakers (although that’s always a nice side benefit).

It’s interesting because I think Abbott’s sentiments match the feelings of Warrior fans who want to see more of a certain second-year forward. Substitute Don Nelson’s name for McMillan’s and Brandan Wright’s name for Oden, and you have a pretty good idea of how that faction of Golden State’s faithful look at this team right now.

The only problem?

Nelson is in thrall to the mismatch. It’s practically an addiction for him. And that’s why the allure of playing Corey Maggette, all 6-foot-6 of him, at power forward is just too strong for Nelson to withstand.

Taking Al Harrington out of the equation — thus leaving Nelson with the options of playing Wright 30 minutes a night at the 4 vs. Maggette — just cleared the way for Nelson to go small.

(Cynical folks might think that’s why Nellie was oh-so-willing to give Harrington as many minutes as possible in the first few games: Either Harrington would give him great production, which makes Nelson’s job easier, or he would bomb completely, helping Nelson usher Maggette into his new spot.)

Team president Robert Rowell said that he gave Nelson an extension through the 2010-11 season in part so that “it wasn’t all about picking up those 53 wins (to catch Lenny Wilkens as the NBA’s all-time leader in coaching victories) all within the first 53 games of the season.”

But that’s exactly the way Nelson coaches. He’s said it himself: “I’m only going to bring the guys along that are ready to play in…

Without even a pretense of having something at the top, here’s today’s installment of your faithful reporter’s quest to prognosticate all 1,230 NBA regular-season games this season:

76ers (2-5) at Raptors (4-3), 4:05 p.m.
Pick: Raptors -6
Kevin Garnett? Pfffft. Now, if Jose Calderon can get the ever-placid Elton Brand to wag a finger in his face, that’d be something impressive.

Hawks (6-0) at Celtics (7-1), 4:35 p.m.
Pick: Celtics -10.5
If Atlanta really can be this good for 82 games, I might have to seriously revise my opinion of Mike Bibby.

Pacers (3-3) at Nets (2-4), 4:35 p.m.
Pick: Nets +1.5
I shouldn’t fall into this trap, but I’m going to anyway.

Lakers (6-0) at Hornets (4-2), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Lakers +1
L.A. is 5-1 against the spread this season, and the only loss was by one point (they beat Denver by 7 while laying 8).

Trail Blazers (4-3) at Heat (4-3), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Heat -1.5
Greg Oden comes back, but for how long? Three games? Six?

Spurs (2-4) at Bucks (3-5), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Spurs -2.5
So, was that win over New York an aberration, or a return to form for the Spurs’ shooters?

Magic (4-3) at Thunder (1-6), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Magic -7
Nick Collison should get paid double for the abuse he’s about to take.

Jazz (6-1) at Wizards (0-5), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Jazz -4.5
Has a team gone from splashing out huge wads of cash to fighting to keep from falling into inevitable rebuilding mode faster than the Wizards?

Knicks (4-3) at Grizzlies (3-5), 5:05 p.m.
Pick: Knicks +4.5
I hadn’t realized until right now that the Knicks really don’t have a single legitimate shot-blocker. They’re still in single-digits as a team (9), through seven games. Makes me wonder if Mike D’Antoni told Chris Duhon on the day he signed, “Welcome aboard. Don’t ever, ever, EVER, EVER, EVER let your man get by you.”

Kings (3-5) at Clippers (1-6), 7:35 p.m.
Pick: Clippers -7
The Kings disappointed me last night by kicking away what should have been a sure cover in the final minutes. I’m not sure if this is the right response, but so be it.

Rockets (4-3) at Suns (6-2), 7:35 p.m.
Picks: Rockets +3.5
This is one of about four games I’ve flipped back and forth. I’ll be fascinated to watch Matt Barnes and Ron Artest, two of the league’s more combustible personalities on the floor, going head-to-head.

Yesterday: 6-2
Season record: 50-54-1

– Geoff

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