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Golden State Warriors & NBA analysis from Geoff Lepper
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Jan511 Comments
The Warriors’ best local story of the season has come to an abrupt end: DeMarcus Nelson, the Oakland native and former Vallejo High star, was cut today to make room for forward Jermareo Davidson — a 2007 second-round pick of Golden State who was traded on draft day as part of the Jason Richardson-Brandan Wright deal — to be signed to a 10-day contract.
The move could save the team approximately $200,000, since Nelson’s contract wasn’t set to fully vest until Jan. 10. It would actually be an increase in salary outlay if the Warriors choose to keep Davidson, who can be signed to a second 10-day and then must be released or given a minimum-level contract for the remainder of the season. Since Davidson is a second-year player, a minimum-level deal for him from Jan. 25 on would cost roughly $350,000.
The 6-10 Davidson is averaging 16.1 points and 10.8 rebounds for the Idaho Stampede of the D-League this season. His presence gives Don Nelson another option at power forward, which has been a problem spot all year, especially so now that rookie Anthony Randolph has been “put on ice,” in the coach’s words.
– Geoff
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Dec18
Thoughts on Game No. 26: Pacers 127, Warriors 120
Filed under: News; Tagged as: Al Harrington, Andris Biedrins, Anthony Morrow, Anthony Randolph, Austin Croshere, Baron Davis, Brandan Wright, C.J. Watson, Chris Webber, Corey Maggette, DeMarcus Nelson, Dennis Rodman, DJ Mbenga, Don Nelson, Jamal Crawford, Jeff Foster, Kelenna Azubuike, Kosta Perovic, Marco Belinelli, Marcus Williams, Mark Cuban, Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus, Monta Ellis, Patrick O'Bryant, Rob Kurz, Ronny Turiaf, Stephen Graham, Stephen Jackson, Troy Hudson17 CommentsBy Geoff Lepper
48minutes.netWarriors center Ronny Turiaf has an easy fix for Golden State’s problems when it comes to securing defensive rebounds:
“Plain and simple, go get the ball,” Turiaf said. “That’s it.”
Except that hasn’t been it, of course. Not by a long shot.
Including last night’s horrific 20-offensive rebound performance for the Indiana Pacers in their 127-210 victory, Golden State has chalked up a defensive rebound rate (DRR) of just 67.0 percent through its first 26 games.
The DRR — a team’s defensive boards divided by the sum of a team’s defensive boards and the opponents’ offensive rebounds — is a rough ratio of how many defensive rebounds a team gets (it doesn’t include team boards, so it’s not as exact as you would want).
At 67.0, Golden State ranks last in the NBA by a wide, wide margin. There’s a chart to illustrate that point below, but here’s some specifics as well: The Kings are 29th in the league at 70.5 percent and the league average is 73.1. The top-ranked Spurs are at 77.8.

Consider: Even if the Warriors closed half the gap between their DRR and the league average . . . they’d still be the league’s worst, at 70.05. So the data begs the question:
How bad are the Warriors, historically speaking?
Well, how about this: They’re the second-worst defensive rebounding team this century.
OK, I realize the 21st century is only in its ninth year, but still, the last time a team posted a DRR lower than 67.0 was in 1999-2000, when the Dallas Mavericks — put together and coached by familiar, white-haired adherent of small ball by the name of Don Nelson — pulled down 66.1 percent of their opportunities.
In an attempt to solve that team’s failings — both on the floor and at the ticket office — Nelson and new Mavericks owner Mark Cuban brought in a 38-year-old Dennis Rodman. Though the Worm helped somewhat — Dallas’ DRR in 12 games with him was about 3.5 points better than in the 70 without — it wasn’t enough to make it worth dealing with his particular brand of crazy.
I’m sure that Rodman would be game to pull down more NBA coin, but let’s assume for the moment that a washed-up, 47-year-old ex-husband to Carmen Electra isn’t the answer for Nelson & Co. this time around.
What can the Warriors do to solve this problem, which keeps biting them at critical junctures (such as the possession Wednesday where Jeff Foster simply bulled over Jamal Crawford, collected his own miss and allowed Stephen Graham to give the Pacers a second-chance layup for a five-point lead)?
“Well, it’s a very complicated thing,” Nelson said last week. “It’s not just one thing. There’s lots of different coverages, there’s lots of different assignments. It takes a while before it’s a natural thing for young players.”
It’s interesting to look at the Warriors’ individual DRR numbers this season compared to last season, when Golden State still ranked last but had a 70.3 mark that was at least within hailing distance of the rest of the league.
In 2007-08:

In 2008-09:

A few things that stand out: Harrington’s dramatic slide (-5.2) reiterates just how little he cared to toil in a Warriors uniform this season.
That was just one piece of the across-the-board decrease for returning players, such as Wright (-2.7), Azubuike (-2.3) and Jackson (-1.1).
Turiaf attributes some of the team’s problem to a habit of standing around and watching Biedrins (third in the league at 12.0 rpg): “Because Goose gets so many of them, sometimes we’re like, ‘OK, Goose, just go get it.’ We become somewhat complacent; ‘You average 13 a game, so we’ll just box out for you.’”
Yet even Biedrins is down 1.3 percent.
It’s been fun to watch the Phoenix Suns play this season and witness, even as they’re disintegrating because of Steve Nash’s disenchantment with new coach Terry Porter, Matt Barnes having a career year. Much like Joni Mitchell’s “Big Yellow Taxi,” where you “don’t know what you’ve got ‘til it’s gone,” Barnes’ tenacity on the glass has become so much more noticeable now that it’s not here, replaced by the pale imitation that has been Corey Maggette’s work as a “power” forward.
Watson deserves praise for his concentrated effort on rebounding, which has been rewarded with greater numbers, and so to a lesser extent does Belinelli. And, not to beat on a dead horse, while Randolph may have his problems in making the transition from teen-ager to NBA pro, going up and securing loose balls is not one of them.
But Crawford is as bad as he was advertised to be. And Turiaf, the Warriors’ alleged answer to such bangers as Utah’s Paul Millsap (20.4 career DRR) and Dallas’ Brandon Bass (17.4), is at a career-low number, continuing a slide that has not stopped since his rookie year: from 19.0 to 18.3 to 15.4 to 13.6.
There are a number of factors that lead back to different causes. That Golden State’s guards are doing a remarkably poor job at keeping opposing ball-handlers from turning the corner seemingly at will means that Turiaf and Biedrins are constantly pulled out of prime rebounding position to provide last-line-of-defense help around the rim. Nor is it helping that wings are supposed to be heading downcourt, seeking out early offense in Nelson’s system, rather than dealing with the heavy lifting of defensive rebounding.
Turiaf claims it’s all mental, and doesn’t blame even the Warriors’ near obsession with a small-ball setup that the coach keeps saying didn’t work because the opponent’s small squad was just flat-out better.
“It has nothing to do with not being strong enough, being small, blah-blah-blah,” Turiaf said. “It has nothing to do with that. . . . Regardless of what happens, just go get the ball. I’d rather have a turnover — I don’t think coach is going to agree with me on that one — but I’d rather have a turnover with two guys going to get the ball than not getting it. That’s pretty much it.
“Just go get it.”
Hendrix goes, Williams stays
The Warriors couldn’t bring themselves to pay Marcus Williams almost $1 million not to show up for the rest of this season, so they cut rookie forward Richard Hendrix instead to make room for Monta Ellis’ move off the suspended list. The decision saved the team costs the team roughly $600,000 less than losing Williams and makes sense from one perspective: There is no way Don Nelson was going to use either of those two players the rest of the way, so the team simply chose the option that represents less wasted money.The Lineup Project
I don’t want to give anyone a stroke, so I’ll just point out that the 7:15 in the Medium line encompassed Brandan Wright’s entire evening.
Without Monta. . .
So it’s 7-19, then. I thought I was being pretty good at tamping any optimism when I wrote that the Warriors would be 9-17 by the time Ellis’ suspension ended. Guess I was wrong.Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net
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Dec14
Thoughts on Game No. 24: Nuggets 123, Warriors 105
Filed under: News; Tagged as: Anthony Morrow, Brandan Wright, Chauncey Billups, Corey Maggette, DeMarcus Nelson, Don Nelson, J.R. Smith, Jamal Crawford, Kenyon Martin, Manny Pacquiao, Marcus Williams, Michael Marks, Monta Ellis, Nene, Oscar De La Hoya, Rob Kurz, Robert Rowell, Ronny Turiaf, Stephen Jackson15 CommentsBy Geoff Lepper
48minutes.netAt a Warriors practice last week, Golden State captain Stephen Jackson stood on the sideline talked for roughly 10 minutes with team president Robert Rowell and minority owner Michael Marks.
I have no idea what the gist of the conversation was, but Rowell needs to have another meeting with Jackson, with one simple message:
Sit down until you’re healthy.
Like Oscar De La Hoya’s cornermen after watching him get pummeled for eight rounds at the hands of Manny Pacquiao last week, someone has to step in and say it, because Jackson refuses to admit what’s obvious to everyone — that his injured left hand is crippling his effectiveness on the floor right now.
Jackson showed reporters this week how his middle finger is misaligned, and said that the ligaments had been pushed out of place when he originally incurred the injury against Boston on Nov. 26 (his hand got caught in a Celtic’s jersey as Jackson tried to fight through a screen). Nevertheless, he steadfastly refuses to ask off the floor in games, even after he takes a shot and can clearly be seen between plays rubbing the hand to try and ease the pain.
The team has not given any indication that Jackson needs anything other than rest to get better. If that’s the case, then the rest should start immediately.
Jackson was 1-for-13 from the floor in the Warriors’ 123-105 loss to the Nuggets on Saturday. Teams are overplaying his right hand now, knowing that he can’t get anything going on a dribble with his left.
That’s bad enough, but let’s be honest: Even if Jackson had been playing at his 2007-08 level against the Nuggets on Saturday, does anyone really think that would have turned the tide? On a night where Don Nelson’s top three possibilities at power forward — Corey Maggette, Brandan Wright and Ronny Turiaf — are all off the floor? Maybe an 18-point defeat becomes an eight-point margin. But there’s not much more to it than that.
The only way the Warriors are going to make the playoffs — assuming you’re not joining the Tank Brigade after a quarter of the season — is if they win a stunning proportion of the games once Monta Ellis comes back. We’re talking a 65, 70, 75 percent proportion.
Running Jackson out for 31 minutes on back-to-back nights in games where the Warriors already have next to no hope because of their myriad other injuries is time he could be spending recovering. And getting ready so that when Ellis returns, it’s with a full-strength Jackson alongside.
Notes
Jamal Crawford may or may not be the reason why the Warriors’ defense went from “merely poor” to “catastrophically bad” in the past few weeks. But there’s no reason whatsoever why he should stand around near halfcourt and watch, dumbstruck, while Kenyon Martin streaks past him to set up a breakaway dunk after Chauncey Billups collects a missed 3-pointer and launches a lead pass. At least give an effort. Act like you care. . . . I’m going to search through the tape later today with an eye on Rob Kurz’s performance. I will stipulate that he was one of only two Warriors that could hit any kind of shot, but this no-mistake defense I keep hearing about was belied by two plays that jumped out on the first viewing: Kurz got pushed down the lane by Nene on the very first play of the game, which allowed Kurz’s cover, Martin, to cram home a dunk. (Thankfully, Kurz turned away at the last second, otherwise Martin would’ve given him the full Frederic Weis treatment.) Then, 90 seconds into the second half, Kurz came from the right block all the way across the lane to try to provide C.J. Watson help covering Anthony on the left wing. Except all that did was leave Martin open to tap home Anthony’s alley-oop pass. . . . Given that he couldn’t even get into a 25-point blowout until the final 3:02, it’s pretty clear that third-year guard Marcus Williams is the leader in the clubhouse in terms of being the player the Warriors to shed after Monta Ellis’ suspension ends on Dec. 17. Barring a very poor showing by DeMarcus Nelson on Wednesday while he fills in for Watson (who will be attending a family funeral), the only question would seem to be whether the Warriors can salvage a second-round pick for Williams, or just have to cut him loose with no compensation at all. . . . Anthony Morrow needs to learn to stay home when matched up with a 3-point gunner such as J.R. Smith.The Lineup Project
Once again, no real chance to go big without Turiaf and Wright in the building.Lineup GS DEN Time
Large 0 0 0:00
Turiaf-Biedrins 0 0 0:00
Medium 41 49 18:56
Small 64 74 29:04Here’s a season-long update, per 48 minutes
Lineup GS OPP +/-
Large 99.7 92.5 +7.2
Turiaf-Biedrins 107.1 97.4 +9.7
Medium 103.6 109.6 -6.0
Small 107.3 116.6 -9.3Without Monta. . .
7-19, here they come. Only two games remain, and both of them, like the Denver game, were predicted to be defeats.Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net
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Nov15
Thoughts on Game No. 10: Warriors 121, Clippers 103
Filed under: News; Tagged as: Andris Biedrins, Anthony Morrow, Baron Davis, Brandan Wright, C.J. Watson, Chris Kaman, Corey Maggette, Cuttino Mobley, DeMarcus Nelson, Don Nelson, Kelenna Azubuike, Marcus Camby, Marcus Williams, Ricky Davis, Ronny Turiaf12 CommentsBy Geoff Lepper
48minutes.netOn Sunday in the cramped visitors’ locker room at Arco Arena, a reporter told Warriors guard Anthony Morrow: “You’re going to be the new flavor of the week.”
We might have to adjust that expiration date a little bit.
Morrow got his first NBA start Saturday in Los Angeles and put on a true show: 37 points on 15-for-20 shooting, including 4-for-5 beyond the 3-point arc. For a team that came into the game ranked 25th in team field-goal percentage (42.6), it was like finding a wheelbarrow of grout in amongst a brickyard.
Oh, this is the way an offense is supposed to work.
““I’ve been in the league for 30 years and I have never seen a performance like that,” coach Don Nelson said.
Said Morrow: “Today was just one of those things. I mean, you don’t shoot 15-for-20. Sometimes, I don’t even shoot 15-for-20 in drills, man.”
Often times, though, he does. You can always tell when Morrow’s shooting in a practice situation; not only will he reel off a couple dozen 3-pointers in a row, but he’ll also pure probably 75 percent of those through the heart of the basket, not even thinking of brushing the iron on the way by.
That honeyed jumper is all most folks Warriors fans be talking about today, but there were two highlights of the game for Morrow that had nothing to do with shooting.
The first: His hard foul on center Marcus Camby with 4 minutes left in the first quarter, which sent a message to the Clippers that — undrafted rookie or no — Morrow was not going to be cowed by the situation.
And with 2 1/2 minutes left in the third quarter. Kelenna Azubuike misfired on a long 2 from the top of the key, but Morrow — the only Warrior below the free-throw line — tipped the ball not once but twice, scoring on the second try, while four Clippers stood in an impotent semi-circle around him, just watching.
That brings up another point that must be made: This happened against the Clippers, in an afternoon game, which in the late-night world of the NBA is the best equalizer of all.
(Quick aside: The early start was necessitated by the fact that the Kings were playing Saturday night; I thought Baron Davis was supposed to be a big draw in L.A., no? Yet he can’t even outrank hockey in his own hometown?)
In short, to make himself something more than the flavor of next week, Morrow needs to prove himself against stiffer competition, beginning with the Trail Blazers on Tuesday.
** I fear that the smoother offense was more a byproduct of the Clippers’ porous defense than Morrow opening up things for others.
And as much as I loved Morrow flattening Camby, he did not exactly keep Cuttino Mobley in full check (19 points, 8-for-17 field).
** With DeMarcus Nelson in Bakersfield and Marcus Williams back on bench duty, Don Nelson seems committed to the Jackson-at-point-guard experiment. We’ll see how long it lasts.
** Corey Maggette with a drive-and-kick? I think half the crowd fainted dead away, right there.
** Brandan Wright, paging Brandan Wright. White Courtesy “Where The Hell Did You Go?” Phone, please.
** When Chris Kaman flung a ball off of Maggette to avoid stepping out of bounds with it and turning over possession, was it my imagination, or did he smile for half a second?
** Speaking of Kaman, how much of a downgrade is that for Davis from Andris Biedrins? You wonder if — while trying vainly to defend yet another Jackson-Biedrins pick-and-roll, or watching Kaman letting yet another layup opportunity slip through his hands — Davis had a pang of regret.
** If you had 3 minutes and 11 seconds in the “How Long Will It Take Baron To Break Off A Play And Chuck Up A 20-Seconds-On-The-Shot-Clock 3-Pointer?” Pool, congratulations. You’ve won a No. 5 Warriors jersey, size small, from Overstock.com.
** It must be said that C.J. Watson was much improved, but if the league ever starts keeping track of the number of times an offensive player leaps headlong into a charging call — kind of like the “blocked attempts” stat that’s showing up in nba.com boxes these days — he might lead the league on a per-minute basis.
** I know I’m an old guy in a league that venerates youth, but here’s my problem with the rampant culture of congratulations that’s so pervasive in the NBA these days. With just less than 11 minutes to go and trailing by seven, the Clippers finished off a solid defensive possession by forcing a contested jumper by Ronny Turiaf with 5 on the shot clock.
Turiaf missed, and Clippers guard Ricky Davis was left all alone to clean up the rebound; not a single Warrior crashed the glass. Despite the lack of pressure, Davis promptly fumbled the uncontested rebound out of bounds.
And then, as the rest of the players filtered back down to the Clippers’ basket, Baron Davis reached out and gave Ricky a high-five.
What was the point? Hey, nice job screwing that up and giving them another possession at a critical juncture in a game we still can win?
As the kids would say:
Awful.
Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net
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Nov9
Thoughts on Game No. 7: Kings 115, Warriors 98
Filed under: News; Tagged as: Andris Biedrins, Anthony Morrow, C.J. Watson, DeMarcus Nelson, Dick Bavetta, Don Nelson, Kevin Martin, Marcus Williams, Rob Kurz, Stephen Jackson19 CommentsBy Geoff Lepper
48minutes.netSACRAMENTO — Stephen Jackson realized a while ago that there’s a very basic problem at the heart of the Warriors’ struggles so far this season.
“Guys are going to have to understand that I can’t be the only guy out there making plays for other guys to get open shots,” Jackson said on Wednesday. “Everybody has to be accountable for that. And that’s what was a big part of our success last year. Baron (Davis) got guys open shots. Monta (Ellis) got guys open shots. I got guys open shots. Right now, it’s just me getting guys open shots. So until we figure out that everybody has to try to make the extra pass or worry about making a play for somebody else, then we’re going to be in the same position.”
Despite a change in location, the Warriors found themselves back in that same position Sunday. With Jackson effectively removed from the game by aggressive, early double-teaming from the Kings, Golden State’s offense once again fizzled, and Sacramento ran away with a 115-98 victory.
“We would expect that that’s going to happen,” said Warriors coach Don Nelson, who admitted that he “packed it in” after three quarters with his team trailing by 16 points. “When you’re limited as far as your star players go, that’s a pretty smart thing (for an opponent) to do, don’t you think?”
So what can you do in response?
“Then somebody else has to step up. It’s his job to make the proper pass, not try to fight it. And it’s up to the other players then to deliver.”
In that case, go ahead and rename them the Golden State Postal Service, because there were no deliveries made Sunday. C.J. Watson and DeMarcus Nelson combined for five assists and four turnovers in 51 minutes. (Marcus Williams had three assists and no TOs in 9 minutes’ worth of garbage time.)
The Warriors shot 41.1 percent, and even the shots they made had a much higher degree of difficulty than the open layups that Kings such as Kevin Martin (27 points before a third-quarter spill knocked him out for the evening.
“I think we just need to share the ball more,” said center Andris Biedrins, who had the team’s second-highest assist total with four. “We always just do one pass and shoot. You don’t really need to be a playmaker to get somebody open. Just drive, pass it out, next pass and the next pass.”
** Jackson said he’s working hard to maintain his poise despite a 2-5 record because the Warriors “have got a lot of young guys playing right now, and it’s frustrating to them. But I can’t be frustrated because it turns into a domino effect and they all get frustrated.”
It looked like Jackson was venting some frustration on referee Dick Bavetta when he picked up a technical foul in the second quarter, but he denied that was the case.
“I was trying to talk to him, he had attitude and one thing led to another,” Jackson said. “I got a million techs in my career. That’s nothing. I’m fighting for my young guys when I’m out there. I’m going to support them. If I feel like they got fouled or I got a bad call, I’m going to talk about it, because I’m the captain, and before the game, referees tell you you’re allowed to talk to them, being a captain. So that’s what I did.”
** The offense wasn’t spectacular, but Don Nelson was even more disappointed with the defensive work his younger players displayed.
“I didn’t think they followed the game plan, they lost their concentration, and (did) a lot of things that young players are going to do,” Nelson said. “I think they listen. Somewhere in between going to the scorer’s table and getting on the floor, they forget. And some of these game plans are fairly complicated. Maybe a little different than we’ve been training them.”
My semi-educated guess: After drilling people for so long on switching as often as possible (usually anything between the 1 through 4 positions on the floor), it was difficult for the youngsters to adjust to a game plan in which the point guard was tasked with doing nothing defensively except chasing Kevin Martin through a thicket of screens.
** Insta-prediction: Warriors diehards will want to see more Anthony Morrow after the rookie guard’s 3-for-5 shooting performance during the fourth quarter.
“I liked Morrow when he came in the game,” Nelson said. “He’s been playing extremely well in practice, and it was the first opportunity he had and I liked him in the game.”
** Of course, the coach also lauded the play of rookie forward Rob Kurz, which seemed to fly in the face of all available evidence. He went 1-for-6 with a turnover and three fouls in 23 minutes.
“I liked Rob on the floor a lot,” Nelson said. “I know his numbers weren’t real good, (but) there’s a guy who doesn’t make a lot of mistakes and moves it. This was his first game. He probably was a little tight on a couple of his shots, but we know he can make that shot. I felt real good about his performance and his presence on the floor.”
Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

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