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Golden State Warriors & NBA analysis from Geoff Lepper

  • Jan
    3

    By Geoff Lepper
    48minutes.net

    As the rift between the Warriors coach Don Nelson and rookie forward Anthony Randolph continues to widen unabated, with the teenager effectively serving an unofficial and open-ended suspension, it’s funny to think about who might have salvaged this relationship:

    Chris Mullin.

    Randolph was a Mullin pick; Nelson wanted Jason Thompson but came around eventually to Mullin’s way of thinking, which was to take a potential superstar if one was available at No. 14 — and Randolph fit that bill.

    It stands to figure that Mullin would be the guy best equipped to keep Randolph’s emotions in check when he would get yanked by Nelson’s short leash. After all, Mullin was the guy who served as Monta Ellis’ biggest champion during a rookie season in which coach Mike Montgomery derided his talents and kept him mostly glued to the bench until Baron Davis shut it down in March.

    But Mullin has been persona non grata for a while now, unseen at practice or even at shootarounds, where he used to be a constant presence. He’s been on the road scouting college games, which should give him some great insights (on the Warriors’ dime) when he goes to work for another NBA team next season, but that’s a whole other problem.

    Much has been made of the shot Randolph delivered to fellow rookie forward Rob Kurz in practice last weekend; the obvious inference to be drawn from Stephen Jackson’s reaction is that Randolph deliberately nailed Kurz.

    I don’t think he would have wanted to cause serious injury, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Randolph, having reached the height of his frustration, lined up Kurz’s chin and clocked him as a stand-in for Nelson.

    Nelson has been almost unremittingly critical of Randolph this season. The coach’s biggest compliment — that Randolph had passed Brandan Wright on the team’s depth chart way back in preseason — turned out to be totally false, just a motivational tool to light a fire under Wright.

    On the other hand, Nelson has been effusive in his praise of Kurz from Day 1, all but pouting when Kurz was cut on Mullin’s order and then campaigning hard to get him back once Ellis was placed on the suspended list.

    I’m not saying definitively that that’s what happened. But I can certainly see Kurz being the epitome of everything that’s going wrong for Randolph — at least in Randolph’s eyes — and Randolph snapping after three months and lashing out.

    As for a return date for Randolph, Nelson is once again publicly demurring to other members of the organization despite his unquestioned status as the leader of basketball operations. It’s similar to the move Nelson pulled a few weeks back when Jackson was struggling terribly and needed to be told to hit the bench until his hand was healthy. Rather than doing it himself (at least at first), Nelson tried to put the onus on his other players to deliver the message to Jackson.

    Matt Steinmetz posits that this is Nelson’s way of telling everyone that there’s “a major problem with Randolph” and that he’s out of ideas how to deal with the rookie.

    To a more cynical observer, it could be interpreted as another way to ostracize Randolph.

    Lead assistant Keith Smart had been Randolph’s closest confidant during games, the guy to whom both Randolph and Wright would go to after being unceremoniously yanked by Nelson after one or two mistakes (while Corey Maggette would make seven and still be on the floor).

    Putting Smart and the other assistants in charge of deciding when Randolph can return means that relationship must change — after all, how can Smart seem fair and evenhanded if he’s still letting Randolph bend his ear?

    It’s too bad there isn’t anybody else under contract who might fill that role.

    Oh, right.

    The Lineup Project
    As for the game, there’s not much in the way of analysis needed. The Warriors should been up big at the half, but gave the Timberwolves 12 points off turnovers in the first two periods. There’s no shame at not being able to stop Al Jefferson (32 points, 10 rebounds), but letting Kevin Love rip you for 19 points and eight boards in 25 minutes is just horrendous.

    Lineup data for Golden State game 35: Timberwolves 115, Warriors 108

    Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

    23 Comments
  • Dec
    19

    By Geoff Lepper
    48minutes.net

    It’s looking more and more like the Warriors are going to, once again, end up disintegrating into a cloud of debris.

    If, as ESPN’s Chris Broussard says, coach Don Nelson told rookie forward Anthony Randolph to have his agent explore potential trades, then things have come unglued to a point that would probably be unprecedented in franchise history . . . if only this franchise wasn’t the Warriors.

    Is Broussard’s report accurate? I don’t know. Can I see Nelson saying something like that to Randolph? Absolutely. Without question. When Nellie gets down on a player — consistently down, not just for a two-week stretch of juggling the rotation or somesuch — it’s pretty much impossible to dig yourself out of that hole.

    I had an interesting conversation recently with a Nelson confidant about the Warriors’ pick in this year’s draft. This person said that Nelson’s much-hyped interest in Jason Thompson — so well-hyped that it seemed it could only be a smokescreen — was very, very real. In fact, Nelson had to be talked down from Thompson and into Randolph by Chris Mullin and others in the days leading up to the draft.

    In retrospect, I can see why Nelson was so much more interested in Thompson, who was taken by the Kings with the No. 12 selection. Thompson doesn’t have the 3-point range that Al Harrington offered, but he has a decent enough mid-range jumper and was ready to go after four years at Rider — meaning that having Thompson on board would have made it that much easier to trade Harrington before the season began.

    It also helps to explain why Nelson — again, assuming Broussard’s reporting is correct — can so cavalierly toss aside the No. 14 pick in Randolph.

    That being said, it’s one thing for the coach to decide he has no use for a player. But when that coach makes it so patently obvious to all other clubs, how you possibly get decent value? Nelson’s unbridled disdain for Marcus Williams has made it such that the Warriors can’t even sell him off for 50 cents on the dollar.

    Given that fact, why shop Randolph now? Why not give him some playing time and showcase him this month before trying to dump him? Why not wait until the summer, let him put up some big numbers in Vegas and build back some stock? It just makes no sense.

    I’ve said it before in this space: The best move the Warriors have made in the second Nelson era — the eight-player trade with Indiana — was born of three competing desires all landing on the same deal. There was team president Robert Rowell, looking to regain lost flexibility under the salary cap. There was Nelson, delivering a harsh truth about the games of two former centerpieces of the roster, Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy. And there was Mullin, who had been coveting Harrington for years and finally took advantage of the Pacers’ angst to get him — and added the guy who turned out to be the best player in the deal, Stephen Jackson.

    Now that Mullin has been marginalized, Pete D’Alessandro whacked and nobody left to rein Nelson in other than Rowell, it’s unclear where this team is going. But it sure seems likely it’s going to be in pieces before its arrival.

    Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

    7 Comments
  • Nov
    20

    By Geoff Lepper
    48minutes.net

    Henry Abbott over at TrueHoop wrote a nice (and completely correct) piece about how the boxscore may have fooled people into thinking Greg Oden had a great game against the Warriors on Tuesday, when in point of fact just the opposite was true, and Portland probably would have been better served to keep him on the bench.

    The twist? Abbott, a true Blazer fanatic, had NO PROBLEM with the decision to keep Oden out there.

    “I’m thrilled at Nate McMillan’s conviction to spend time on Oden, and to keep featuring him even if it costs the team games. Even if the costs are non-trivial, getting Greg Oden confident is one of the best investments a coach can make, because he’s only showing us a fraction of what’s to come.”

    I bring this up not just as a means for sucking up to one of the NBA blogosphere’s tastemakers (although that’s always a nice side benefit).

    It’s interesting because I think Abbott’s sentiments match the feelings of Warrior fans who want to see more of a certain second-year forward. Substitute Don Nelson’s name for McMillan’s and Brandan Wright’s name for Oden, and you have a pretty good idea of how that faction of Golden State’s faithful look at this team right now.

    The only problem?

    Nelson is in thrall to the mismatch. It’s practically an addiction for him. And that’s why the allure of playing Corey Maggette, all 6-foot-6 of him, at power forward is just too strong for Nelson to withstand.

    Taking Al Harrington out of the equation — thus leaving Nelson with the options of playing Wright 30 minutes a night at the 4 vs. Maggette — just cleared the way for Nelson to go small.

    (Cynical folks might think that’s why Nellie was oh-so-willing to give Harrington as many minutes as possible in the first few games: Either Harrington would give him great production, which makes Nelson’s job easier, or he would bomb completely, helping Nelson usher Maggette into his new spot.)

    Team president Robert Rowell said that he gave Nelson an extension through the 2010-11 season in part so that “it wasn’t all about picking up those 53 wins (to catch Lenny Wilkens as the NBA’s all-time leader in coaching victories) all within the first 53 games of the season.”

    But that’s exactly the way Nelson coaches. He’s said it himself: “I’m only going to bring the guys along that are ready to play in an NBA game.” He’s never been a guy who would give a youngster 20 minutes a night just for the sake of development when a game can still be won.

    And Nelson is convinced, at least for now, that Maggette at the 4 will win him more games.

    Chris Mullin said to me way back at the start of training camp that Wright’s biggest problem was his lack of a specific identity as a player. He had no facet of his game that was so outstanding it would demand playing time for him, night after night.

    “Brandan is still feeling out what that is,” Mullin said. “He does flashes of rebounding, he does block a shot, he does put it on the floor in the open court and make a nice move. He’s got to find something – and this is not really (specific) to Nellie or myself – that the coach really feels comfortable that he’s going to do, that he can rely on. . . .

    “He’s got to figure out what staple of his game is going to make him Brandan Wright. What’s that going to be?”

    The biggest asset for Maggette, on the other hand, is easily identifiable: He is strong enough and armed with a quick enough first step to bull his way past most forwards and earn at least a pair of free throws (which he converts at 81.9 percent lifetime), if not an and-one situation.

    Nelson knows what he’s going to get from Maggette, and how he can exploit that trick to his best advantage. There is no such certainty with Wright at this point.

    Eventually, opponents will solve the Maggette-at-4 puzzle. Or they’ll make it too expensive by punishing Maggette at the defensive end. Or he’ll just pop another hamstring and be forced to sit out for two weeks. (Or maybe Kelenna Azubuike’s sprained left knee, which could keep him out of Friday’s game, will force Nelson to move Jackson and Maggette back to the 2/3 spots, thus putting Wright back in the mix.)

    Until then, however, Wright’s fans should be prepared for some disappointing box scores.

    ** The Anthony Morrow legend just keeps building. Witness the ever-growing compendium of Anthony Morrow Facts here.

    I’m a sucker for the pop culture references such as, “Agent Smith now realizes that the sound of inevitability is the swish of an Anthony Morrow shot.”

    Here’s my contribution:

    Kobayashi once tried to threaten Anthony Morrow into missing a shot. Morrow said, “I am Keyser Soze,” then swished it.

    18 Comments
  • Nov
    7

    By Geoff Lepper
    48minutes.net

    OAKLAND — For those of you craving your fix of spin in the wake of this year’s presidential campaign, we give you the Warriors’ daily dose of front office drama.

    Pete D’Alessandro, the Warriors’ salary-cap guru and right-hand man to executive vice president Chris Mullin, was “relieved of his duties” as assistant general manager Thursday (officially announced Friday) and replaced by assistant coach Larry Riley.

    On one side: Tim Kawakami says it’s the latest sign of team president Robert Rowell’s ego gone berserk.

    On the other: Lowell Cohn says it’s the best thing to happen for Mullin’s chances of staying with the franchise.

    Me? I figured I’d ask the man in the middle. Here’s the 48minutes.net Q&A with Chris Mullin from Friday’s shootaround:

    48minutes.net: Some people see the firing of Pete as a slap at you. Do you think that’s the case?

    Chris Mullin: I cannot comment on that.

    48minutes.net: Do you feel you will serve out the remainder of your contract here?

    CM: Um-hum.

    48minutes.net: Do you foresee any situation where they relieve you of your duties?

    CM: I don’t.

    48minutes.net: One report said Bobby Rowell is running the Al Harrington trade discussions. Is that true?

    CM: From my standpoint, I wouldn’t comment publicly, especially on something about trades or contract negotiations, anything like that. I don’t think that’s beneficial for the organization. On either side.

    48minutes.net: Many folks perceive this as a battle between you and Bobby. Is that a fair characterization?

    CM: No.

    48minutes.net: Why not?

    CM: I just don’t feel like it’s true.

    48minutes.net: Who’s going to be the ultimate decision-maker in terms of a trade for Al? Is that you? Is that Bobby? Is that Nellie? Is that Chris Cohan?

    CM: I would reserve public comment. That’s not really, in my mind, for public consumption.

    48minutes.net: Has that control changed versus, for example, when you made the trade with Indiana (in January 2007)?

    CM: It depends on what you perceive to have been before.

    48minutes.net: OK, then who made the final decision on that trade?

    CM: Who signed the trade papers?

    48minutes.net: Who made the final determination in the office and said, “Yes, let’s go ahead and sign the trade papers”?

    CM: That’s pretty easy to figure that one out. Credit and blame, to me, is not beneficial. It’s really about accountability and moving forward. That’s how I see it. Anything looking backwards, anything where the focus is not on our existing players is, to me, detrimental. To me, really, when the focus becomes that, I just think the priority list is askew. I’m really not trying to look backwards, look to far ahead, (have) an autopsy of things that have happened. I’m trying to do the best for the organization.

    Look, every place goes through things where, even when they’re lined up perfectly, they’re not working. You’ve got to be open-minded enough to change. But not broadcast and forecast the change. To me, I don’t really want to get into . . . it’s kind of like, if you’re preaching out here (on the court) to these guys to make that extra pass, hit the open man, do those little things that supposedly make a winning team, that same philosophy. . .

    48minutes.net: That same philosophy applies to the front office?

    CM: Correct. And it’s not so much what’s talked about. It’s just what’s done. In my mind, any people that I’ve looked up to, they did more than talk. And that was what gravitated me towards following that. There’s some things where it’s just not my personality (to discuss).

    48minutes.net: Are you more or less likely to be here a year from now than you were 48 hours ago?

    CM: In my mind, nothing’s (changed).

    Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

    9 Comments
  • Nov
    7

    By Geoff Lepper
    48minutes.net

    OAKLAND — With the Warriors nursing a two-point lead and less than 3 minutes to go Wednesday against the Denver Nuggets, Golden State coach Don Nelson called for “one flop, point-five.”

    The objective was to have a little give-and-go between Andris Biedrins and Stephen Jackson. Biedrins would feed Jackson the ball at the elbow on one side of the lane, saunter up to his position, then take a handoff back from Jackson while breaking into a sprint past his defender and to the rim.

    It all sounded good in theory. More and more this season, Biedrins has been showing the perimeter abilities that executive vice president Chris Mullin has long maintained were in the fourth-year center’s arsenal, dating back to his days as a teenager in Latvia who despite his nearly 7-foot frame played on the wing, not in the paint.

    There was, however, one problem. When Biedrins, a lefty, took possession of the ball at the midcourt line, Jackson was lined up on the right-hand side of the lane, with the other three Warriors clogging up the left side of the court.

    “Before that play, I told Jack, ‘Go on the left side,’” Biedrins recalled Thursday. “And then I’m running down and I see he’s standing (on the right) and I’m like, ‘C’mon, Jack.’ I was like, ‘OK, let’s run it anyway.’ There was no time to move everything around.”

    There was no need, either. Biedrins took one dribble with his unfamiliar right hand, two giant steps and then rammed the ball home for a one-handed righty slam over the attempted block by Denver’s Nene.

    “I’ve never seen him really take it all the way with his right (hand) like that,” Nelson said. “That was quite a play.”

    It’s just one of many plays Biedrins has made for the Warriors this season. Nelson said at the outset of training camp that Biedrins would be handling the ball more, and that level of responsibility has been rising lately as the rest of Golden State’s roster struggles from the floor.

    Biedrins, who Thursday received a wooden plaque from the league commemorating his league-leading field-goal percentage in 2007-08, is shooting 58.3 percent this season; the remainder of the Warriors are hitting at a combined 39.7 clip.

    “He’s playing the best out of anybody on the team right now and he’s shooting the best, so I think it’s only right that he touches the ball more,” Jackson said. “We’ll see what kind of momentum he can give us, and see if he can get our offense going.”

    The “one flop” series, which was installed recently, gives Nelson more options in terms of delivering the ball to Biedrins. That’s emblematic of the change in Biedrins’ status; after spending his rookie year glued to the bench and a couple seasons after that as little more than a glorified garbage man, he is fast becoming a focal point for the Warriors.

    “He’s been our best player, no question,” Nelson said. “He needs to get the ball more, and he’s gonna get the ball more. That’s just gonna be a fact.”

    Against Denver, Biedrins was on the floor for 60 half-court sets. He was the target of the play on 22 of those occasions, and had a hand in another 14 plays, usually as a primary screener at the top of the key.

    As the Nuggets did on Wednesday, most teams are sagging back whenever Biedrins is part of a pick-and-roll situation, aware that’s how he converted so many easy layups last season.

    To counteract that, the Warriors are using Biedrins in other ways, such as posting him midway up the lane and them having him turn and face up to the basket. Biedrins used that maneuver on Nuggets backup center Chris Andersen twice in the final 1:11 of the third quarter, turning from the right block, jab-stepping towards the baseline to get Andersen moving that direction, then spinning back into the lane and converting a pair of 3-foot layups.

    “Coach said to me that he thinks I’m better when I’m facing up than with my back to the basket, because when I face up I can really use my quickness, spins and all that kind of stuff, and big guys, they have a hard time to guard me like that,” Biedrins said. “Now, he says, ‘Don’t catch the ball after the pick-and-rolls, don’t really roll down, just stop a little bit before the paint, and then use the ball and then use your quickness and then go to the basket.’ Everybody knows that we have that pick-and-roll game and everybody’s already packing the paint. Everybody’s waiting for me right there, so it’s really difficult for Jack or anybody to give me that pass.”

    Biedrins has spent the last two seasons with the Latvian national team, and said that experience of being the leading light for that squad — he often faced double- and triple-teams in the European Championships and qualifying competitions — has helped bolster his confidence.

    “I have freedom there and I almost get the ball every single time we go on offense, and I really can create. It’s not like I’m scoring off the pick and rolls. There, they just give me the ball and I have to create my own offense. . . . Coming here after that summer, I was feeling really great about myself doing more things on the offensive end.”

    He was double teamed a few times Wednesday in the block, and dealt with it fairly well. Once, he found Al Harrington for a jumper, leading to two foul shots. Another time, he set up Brandan Wright for an open look in the lane, but Wright missed the shot. A third time, Biedrins got a little too ambitious and his skip pass was gobbled up by Nuggets guard J.R. Smith.

    “Right now, he’s doing everything that we’re trying to do as a team,” forward Al Harrington said. “We could probably start games with him, and maybe it could become contagious. As of right now, he’s doing things offensively that’s showing the type of guy that could be a go-to guy. We’ve just got to keep pushing it and let him do that. Because obviously most great teams do have an inside presence and they work their way out, not outside in.”

    Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

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