48minutes.net

Another perusal of the Warriors-Nuggets videotape makes one thing clear: There was plenty of bad defense to go around for Golden State in its 123-105 loss to Denver on Monday. Before the Warriors shucked their man-to-man scheme for zone late in the third quarter, the Nuggets scored an obscene 52 of their 90 points in the paint.

Was forward Rob Kurz the worst individual defender on the Warriors that night? No. That would be rookie Anthony Randolph, who was burned twice — allowing a dunk and a layup — in his two on-ball confrontations before being yanked for good.

Was I too hard on Kurz, as some have suggested? I don’t think so. My point was that Don Nelson continually touts Kurz’s ability to be in the right place at all times as one of his key virtues, and I didn’t think that ability was in evidence against the Nuggets.

I will give Kurz credit for his block on Carmelo Anthony as the Nuggets star tried to take him 1v1 from the top of the key. But I didn’t notice previously that he had last-man-back responsibility on Kenyon Martin’s second cherry pick bucket (which featured a 75-foot pass from Chauncey Billups).

And I stand by the assessment that Kurz was too far away from Martin on the alley-oop play early in the second half; instead of staying put on the left block, he went midway up the lane and a couple feet out, allowing Martin to score practically without moving. There were several other instances where a teammate failed to pick up Martin on a cut (Kelenna Azubuike whiffed on a play with about 4 minutes left in the third quarter, the next-to-last play before Nelson finally abandoned the man-to-man and went zone). But this was a situation where Martin didn’t even need to cut to score, and I fault Kurz for that.

Here’s the reason why I care: As the only power forward on the roster with 3-point range, I could easily see Nelson playing Kurz over Randolph and Brandan Wright. That’s good for Kurz’s development, and bad for Randolph’s and Wright’s.

And when you look at how much growth seems possible for each of those three players, that’s the wrong equation for a team that needs to be building for the future.

– Geoff

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

At a Warriors practice last week, Golden State captain Stephen Jackson stood on the sideline talked for roughly 10 minutes with team president Robert Rowell and minority owner Michael Marks.

I have no idea what the gist of the conversation was, but Rowell needs to have another meeting with Jackson, with one simple message:

Sit down until you’re healthy.

Like Oscar De La Hoya’s cornermen after watching him get pummeled for eight rounds at the hands of Manny Pacquiao last week, someone has to step in and say it, because Jackson refuses to admit what’s obvious to everyone — that his injured left hand is crippling his effectiveness on the floor right now.

Jackson showed reporters this week how his middle finger is misaligned, and said that the ligaments had been pushed out of place when he originally incurred the injury against Boston on Nov. 26 (his hand got caught in a Celtic’s jersey as Jackson tried to fight through a screen). Nevertheless, he steadfastly refuses to ask off the floor in games, even after he takes a shot and can clearly be seen between plays rubbing the hand to try and ease the pain.

The team has not given any indication that Jackson needs anything other than rest to get better. If that’s the case, then the rest should start immediately.

Jackson was 1-for-13 from the floor in the Warriors’ 123-105 loss to the Nuggets on Saturday. Teams are overplaying his right hand now, knowing that he can’t get anything going on a dribble with his left.

That’s bad enough, but let’s be honest: Even if Jackson had been playing at his 2007-08 level against the Nuggets on Saturday, does anyone really think that would have turned the tide? On a night where Don Nelson’s top three possibilities at power forward — Corey Maggette, Brandan Wright and Ronny Turiaf — are all off the floor? Maybe an 18-point defeat becomes an eight-point margin. But there’s not much more to it than that.

The only way the Warriors are going to make the playoffs — assuming you’re not joining the Tank Brigade after a quarter of the season — is if they win a stunning proportion of the games once Monta Ellis comes back. We’re talking a 65, 70, 75 percent proportion.

Running Jackson out for 31 minutes on back-to-back nights in games where the Warriors already have next to no hope because of their myriad other injuries is time he could be spending recovering. And getting ready so that when Ellis returns, it’s with a full-strength Jackson alongside.

Notes
Jamal Crawford may or may not be the reason why the Warriors’ defense went from “merely poor” to “catastrophically bad” in the past few weeks. But there’s no reason whatsoever why he should stand around near halfcourt and watch, dumbstruck, while Kenyon Martin streaks past him to set up a breakaway dunk after Chauncey Billups collects a missed 3-pointer and launches a lead pass. At least give an effort. Act like you care. . . . I’m going to search through the tape later today with an eye on Rob Kurz’s performance. I will stipulate that he was one of only two Warriors that could hit any kind of shot, but this no-mistake defense I keep hearing about was belied by two plays that jumped out on the first viewing: Kurz got pushed down the lane by Nene on the very first play of the game, which allowed Kurz’s cover, Martin, to cram home a dunk. (Thankfully, Kurz turned away at the last second, otherwise Martin would’ve given him the full Frederic Weis treatment.) Then, 90 seconds into the second half, Kurz came from the right block all the way across the lane to try to provide C.J. Watson help covering Anthony on the left wing. Except all that did was leave Martin open to tap home Anthony’s alley-oop pass. . . . Given that he couldn’t even get into a 25-point blowout until the final 3:02, it’s pretty clear that third-year guard Marcus Williams is the leader in the clubhouse in terms of being the player the Warriors to shed after Monta Ellis’ suspension ends on Dec. 17. Barring a very poor showing by DeMarcus Nelson on Wednesday while he fills in for Watson (who will be attending a family funeral), the only question would seem to be whether the Warriors can salvage a second-round pick for Williams, or just have to cut him loose with no compensation at all. . . . Anthony Morrow needs to learn to stay home when matched up with a 3-point gunner such as J.R. Smith.

The Lineup Project
Once again, no real chance to go big without Turiaf and Wright in the building.

Lineup               GS      DEN      Time
Large                   0        0          0:00
Turiaf-Biedrins      0         0          0:00
Medium               41       49        18:56
Small                  64      74         29:04

Here’s a season-long update, per 48 minutes

Lineup                GS      OPP      +/-
Large                   99.7     92.5      +7.2
Turiaf-Biedrins      107.1    97.4      +9.7
Medium               103.6    109.6    -6.0
Small                  107.3    116.6    -9.3

Without Monta. . .
7-19, here they come. Only two games remain, and both of them, like the Denver game, were predicted to be defeats.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

The level of the Warriors’ competition went up Thursday. The level of their winning went down.

And it’s very possible that’s going to become a familiar lament for Golden State in the next few weeks.

It’s a cliche to say that the Warriors, as the NBA’s youngest team, need to learn how to win. But it’s a fact that Detroit’s 107-102 win over Golden State is the fourth time out in six losses for the Warriors this season in which they’ve held the lead in the final six minutes and failed to hang on.

The image of the night? Warriors coach Don Nelson, draping his right hand on top of his head as he tried not to have his brain jump out of his skull with 3:10 remaining when C.J. Watson — jarred by the sight of an onrushing Allen Iverson — stepped inbounds before passing the ball in.

The costly turnover was followed by a back-breaking 3-pointer from Rasheed Wallace that gave Detroit a 96-92 lead with 3 minutes left, and the Warriors never drew closer than three points after that.

The Warriors dropped to 3-6 on the season, an especially disappointing mark when you consider that, given the relatively easy nature of their schedule to this point, they should have expected a 5-4 record at a minimum — games at New Jersey, at Memphis, vs. Memphis and vs. Minnesota were all good bets for a win, as was the Denver contest at home when the Nuggets were missing both Iverson and the man he was primarily traded for, Chauncey Billups.

Unfortunately, things get significantly more difficult between now and Dec. 17, when Monta Ellis’ suspension ends. There are two long road trips — which have never been the Warriors’ forte — and home games against a higher caliber of opponent.

One’s man’s guesses as to how the Warriors will fare over the next five weeks:

Saturday, at LA Clippers: TOSSUP
Tuesday, vs. Portland: LEAN LOSS
Nov. 21, vs. Chicago: LEAN WIN
Nov. 23, at Philadelphia: LEAN LOSS
Nov. 25, at Washington: LEAN WIN
Nov. 26, at Boston: SAFE LOSS
Nov. 28, at Cleveland: SAFE LOSS
Nov. 29, at New York: LEAN LOSS
Dec. 1, vs. Miami: LEAN WIN
Dec. 5, at Houston: SAFE LOSS
Dec. 6, at San Antonio: LEAN LOSS
Dec. 8, at Oklahoma City: LEAN WIN
Dec. 10, vs. Milwaukee: SAFE WIN
Dec. 12, vs. Houston: LEAN LOSS
Dec. 13, at Denver: LEAN LOSS
Dec. 15, vs. Orlando: LEAN LOSS
Dec. 17, at Indiana: TOSSUP

That’s 10 in the safe/lean loss category, five in the safe/lean win category and two tossups. If you split the tossup games, that’s going to be a 9-17 record for the Warriors by the time their biggest star is even allowed to play — and obviously there’s no guarantee Ellis will be back on Dec. 17; as first reported here, Ellis still has to have surgery to remove the hardware holding his deltoid ligament in place. That procedure is scheduled for Wednesday.

** Despite grabbing two steals and drawing a couple of charges, it was not a good night at the defensive end for Watson. He was torched with regularity by Iverson and made a crucial mistake on the first of Wallace’s back-to-back 3-pointers.

While responsible for the top right half of the Warriors’ 2-3 zone, Watson was caught up by a screen from Tayshaun Prince at the top of the key. That allowed Allen Iverson to locate a wide-open Wallace in the space that should have been covered by Watson, and Wallace drained the shot for a 93-92 lead.

** Watson also had his troubles as a playmaker. He finished with one assist versus four turnovers and failed to get the ball to a wide-open Anthony Morrow along the left wing in a 4-on-3 situation. (The pass tailed off towards the baseline, skimmed off Morrow’s left hand and went out of bounds.)

** Corey Maggette was less than stellar in his return from a four-game absence due to hamstring problems (2-for-7, team-worst -15). Rightly or no, he gives off that vibe of a guy who puts up enough numbers to keep things close, but never has the grit to single-handedly grab a win.

Also, it was interesting to note that on a transition possession midway through the first quarter, Prince was able to make up a good two or three steps on Maggette, turning what should have been a 3-on-2 fast break into a 3-on-3. That left Watson without an outlet when he got trapped in mid-air, and led to a Warriors turnover.

I don’t know if that was just sheer hustle on Prince’s part or if Maggette didn’t feel, in his heart of hearts, that he could safely go full speed on the hammy. If it was the latter, then he needs to sit; if it was the former, he needs to get it in gear next time.

** Maybe it’s just a coincidence, but in the two games where he’s played less than 44 minutes, Stephen Jackson has shot a combined 12-for-28 (42.9 percent). The rest of the time? He’s 55-for-147 (37.4 percent).

** Morrow is clearly supplanting Marco Belinelli as Nelson’s designated shooter of choice, making the cynical among us wonder when Belinelli will come down with back spasms of his own.

** Andris Biedrins should be catching the alley-oop passes, not throwing them.

** Watching Biedrins outhustling the relentlessly awful Kwame Brown for second-chance points: Not in the least bit surprising, but still very much amusing.

** Brandan Wright showed some nice recognition in the second quarter finding open seam for layup and three-point play after Prince left him to double Kelenna Azubuike, who was posting up ex-Warrior Will Bynum. I assume when Nelson talked about wanting to go smaller after Detroit went small with 6:43 left (Wallace at the 5, Prince at the 4), he would have brought Wright in at the 5 to take man-to-man duties against ‘Sheed.

I’m not convinced it would have worked any better, but in retrospect, it was worth a shot.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

OAKLAND – On a night chock-full of revelations at Oracle Arena, second-year Warriors forward Brandan Wright supplied the exclamation point to Golden State’s 111-101 victory over the Nuggets.

With 1:12 remaining and Denver trailing and desperate for a hoop, veteran Denver forward Kenyon Martin tried to sneak an extra step closer to the basket. That was all the chance Wright needed to spring forward, bat Martin’s jumper into the air and eventually tap it to C.J. Watson to help seal the victory.

It was one of three blocks on the evening for Wright, who also tallied a career-high 18 points and 13 rebounds.

“I just wanted to be a spark and do positive things and hope we get more Ws like tonight,” Wright said.

Wright was active and assertive on the offensive end, hitting his first seven shots and grabbing six offensive boards. But it was those blocks that stood out the most.

The Warriors reached double digits in blocks only twice last season, a deficiency they hoped to address by seeing improvement from Wright and signing free agent Ronny Turiaf.

Andris Biedrins finished with five blocks and Turiaf had two of his own, although they were all upstaged by Kelenna Azubuike, who simply laid waste to a fast-break dunk attempt by Dahntay Jones in the second quarter.

“Their length inside really allows them to help us out on the defensive end,” said Azubuike, who played the entire second half and finished with 22 points, eight rebounds and four assists. “When we get beat, they are always there in the middle to block or change a shot.”

Combined with the Nuggets’ almost pathological desire to pass the ball out of bounds — I understand Denver was down to one true point guard (Anthony Carter) while awaiting the arrival of Chauncey Billups, but this was ridiculous — the Warriors showed signs of being a potentially dominant defensive team.

“They blocked 11 shots, with 20 turnovers that they created,” Nuggets coach George Karl said. “That’s a lot of shots and possessions that they had control over.”

** While Wright was setting all kinds of personal bests, fellow 2007 first-round draftee Marco Belinelli and this year’s first-rounder, Anthony Randolph, were put on notice by Nelson that they won’t see significant playing time until their work improves in practice.

Watson, who set a career-high Wednesday with 14 points and tied another with four assists, rookie starter DeMarcus Nelson and even recently re-signed Rob Kurz are all more likely options to see playing time at the moment.

“(Kurz) is not as talented as Randolph,” Nelson acknowledged. “I’m not talking talent here. I’m talking about if you put a guy in a game right now, where he’s not going to make an error, he knows what he’s doing. He knows his game and he’s able to play in the system without error. (Randolph) is loaded with talent, but doesn’t have those other things.”

In other words, do not expect to see any significant playing time for Belinelli and Randolph before January, when Nelson will take stock of his team.

“We’re trying like heck to win games early to see where we are,” Nelson said. “Let’s look and see where we are in 30 games. If things aren’t looking so well, maybe I’ll give some gifts to the younger guys. But right now, they have to earn their minutes.”

I told Nelson at shootaround — well prior to his postgame kiss-off of Harrington — that “I think the fans are wondering how much worse Anthony Randolph can be when Al Harrington is going 3-for-15.”

The coach replied by saying, “One’s a veteran, and one’s a rookie, and I keep hoping the veteran is going to play like he should. And the rookie I know is not (ready) at this point.”

** Stephen Jackson, who already leads the league in minutes per game at 44.4, will not be enjoying any relief.

“For us to win, (Jackson) has to play in the 40s,” Nelson said. “I don’t know how else to do it at this point. And really, (Corey) Maggette is the same. Our team isn’t that strong without two really good players. That’s just the way it’s been, all the way through training camp.”

** Marcus Williams has slipped even farther down the depth chart, if that’s possible. With Maggette inactive, the Warriors gave rookie shooter Anthony Morrow a jersey but kept Williams in street clothes.

Is he completely out of the picture with regards to playing time?

“He is right now,” Nelson said. “But that doesn’t mean that it’s going to be forever. I don’t know; we’d like to see him, again, play better in the practice sets, play better than the people playing ahead of him right now, and if he does, he’ll move up, and if he doesn’t, why, he’ll be right where he is. These other guys are playing better, they deserve to play ahead of him and are playing ahead of him.”

Nelson said Williams needs to lose weight and improve his quickness to get back on the floor: “I think he’s a little too heavy to consistently get in the paint, where we would expect that he’d be able to make plays, find open people and things like that.”

Wondering if part of the problem is that Williams simply wasn’t a guy Nelson wanted, I asked the coach if he had signed off on the move before it was made.

“I’m not going to discuss things that happened one way or the other,” Nelson said.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

[EDIT at 3:30 p.m.: I looked up and then forgot to list the team offensive efficiency stats from John Hollinger. The Warriors are 21st so far this season, averaging 85.0 points per 100 possessions. A year ago, they were third, at 96.6. Just another sign they need another facilitator to move the ball in the short term.]

It’s been a week now since Al Harrington put on his impassioned Elvis impersonation, and the Warriors seem no closer to moving their forward to happier climes.

In fact, I’m beginning to get convinced that Harrington and the Warriors might be stuck with each at least until Monta Ellis returns from his ankle surgery.

That fact was put into stark relief Monday when Joe Dumars struck almost without warning, collecting Allen Iverson from the Denver Nuggets in exchange for three players, most notably point guard Chauncey Billups.

Pulling the trigger on that deal was almost comically easy for Dumars, since it represents a victory in both the short and long views — the immediate effect is an upgrade from Billups to Iverson and a desired shakeup in the team’s culture, while the two-year plan is the opening of a slot for rising guard Rodney Stuckey.

For the Warriors, however, there do not appear to be any such no-brainer trades lurking out there by which Harrington can be set free.

That’s because Golden State’s short- and long-term goals cannot be easily resolved by any one player.

In the short term, it’s indisputable that the Warriors need help at the point guard position. DeMarcus Nelson, while a find as an undrafted rookie, is a raw, unfinished combo guard who’s not yet ready to be the primary playmaker on an NBA team. C.J. Watson is a score-first guy with flashes of occasional passing creativity, but not enough consistent ability to get past his man on the dribble. Stephen Jackson is too turnover-prone to be a full-time initiator. Marcus Williams has, for better or worse, been banished to irrelevancy.

But the whole point of signing Ellis to a six-year, $66 million deal was to make him the Warriors point guard of the future. (Admittedly, the timetable had to be moved up on that transformation once Baron Davis opted out, but Don Nelson has said consistently and pretty much from the moment he got here that Ellis would need to be a point guard to attain greatness in the NBA.)

So while someone such as Kirk Hinrich would be a tremendous upgrade over what the Warriors have on the floor right now, how do the pieces fit together when Ellis is healthy? Will Nelson sit either Jackson or Corey Maggette to get Hinrich on the floor? Does this mean Kelenna Azubuike can expect 4 minutes a night?

About the only way to get full value from Hinrich when Ellis returns is to play him at the 2, move Jackson back to the 3 and Maggette to the 4.

Unfortunately, that would be a disaster.

The small ball lineup of Davis/Jason Richardson/Jackson/Harrington couldn’t get out of the second round of the playoffs two seasons ago. And that group — especially when you consider how well Davis was playing in the spring of 2007 — is significantly better than what Ellis/Hinrich/Jackson/Maggette offers at this point in time.

Holding onto Harrington until Ellis returns gives the team options. If Warriors officials are convinced Ellis won’t return to his previous form and try to void his deal, then they can pull the trigger on a Harrington deal involving a permanent replacement at PG. If they like what they see from Ellis’ rehabilitation a month from now, then they can make a trade to shave further salary obligations off the books — such as Harrington and Marco Belinelli to Chicago for Drew Gooden (whose $7.1 million contract expires this summer) and Thabo Sefolosha.

This season has been star-crossed from the moment Davis informed the Warriors of his decision to decline $17.8 million in salary. Making a trade that solves one short-term problem while creating a longer-term logjam is not the solution.

– Geoff