48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

By now, you’ve undoubtedly read Marcus Thompson’s blog item regarding the report from Stephen Jackson that Baron Davis wants to be traded back to the Bay less than six months after bolting to go back home.

Aside from the usual eye-rolling that comes with most Baron pronouncements, there’s a very specific and immoveable obstacle to this scenario: BD can’t seriously think that the Warriors (i.e., team president Robert Rowell) — who didn’t want to be on the hook for four fully guaranteed years because of concerns about Davis’ health and motivation — are suddenly going to be willing to pay for FIVE seasons.

Here, then, is a helpful guide to 30 things more likely to happen than Baron Davis coming back to the Bay:

1) Barack Obama arrives at the White House on the afternoon of Jan. 20, spots George Bush ducking out the back door, tosses him the keys and says, “You can keep it. I just got Hank Paulson’s last report, and I’m outta here.”

2) Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter each play 82 games — in the same season.

3) Clay Bennett goes bankrupt and the City of Seattle picks up the Thunder for $42,598 plus court costs in an Oklahoma City repo auction.

4) Warrior fans make it through a broadcast without being reminded that they’re missing (insert number here) points per game.

5) Larry Brown quits the Bobcats out of sheer frustration with Sean May.

(Wait, that one could actually happen.)

6) The L wakes up to the fact that Kevin Garnett has crossed the line from “hard-nosed” to “wantonly overaggressive” and finally takes some punitive action.

7) Allen Iverson takes two weeks off from the Pistons, undergoes 274 laser treatments and comes back without any tattoos.

8 ) Jose Calderon misses a free throw. But only one.

9) Gilbert Arenas announces that he’s quitting the NBA to switch to blogging full-time.

10) Jamal Crawford starts to play lockdown defense.

11) Barry Bonds is named the San Francisco Giants’ new strength and conditioning coach.

12) Kobe Bryant drops 71 on the Suns, then tells a live ABC audience: “Shaq, your ass taste like chicken. At least, that’s what Steve Nash said.”

13) Al Harrington tells Jackson that he’d like to come back to the Warriors, too.

14) Erick Dampier acknowledges that he hasn’t played up to the seven-year, $73 million deal he signed in 2004 and gives Mark Cuban an oversized posterboard check for $30 million in a halftime ceremony at a Mavericks home game.

15) Cuban’s attorneys immediately take half as a retainer.

16) The San Jose Sharks turn yet another glittering regular season into a Stanley Cup title.

17) Stephon Marbury returns to the Knicks at the All-Star break, scores 22.8 points per game the rest of the way and leads New York to the playoffs.

18) Corey Maggette misses 17 games after tearing his lat during a particularly vigorous weight-training session.

19) Eric Gordon takes a rainbow jumper that gets caught among the banners at the TD Banknorth Arena and never comes back to the court.

20) Thanks to a general outcry from critics, “ER” gets renewed.

21) Newspapers in the United States report a 450 percent jump in readership for 2008 over 2007.

22) Dikembe Mutombo stays retired.

23) Dennis Rodman doesn’t.

24) Gregg Popovich promises to dress like Gandalf for the duration of the Spurs’ playoff run.

Will Pop . . .

. . . pick up pipe-smoking as well?

25) Derrick Rose actually breaks Andre Miller’s ankle.

26) Kerri Walsh announces that because it’s too hard to choose a new partner while Misty May-Treanor recovers from her torn Achilles tendon, she’s just going to play solo on the AVP Tour.

And she still wins every tournament.

27) The luxurious manes of Pau and Marc Gasol are revealed to be nothing more than wild wigs when Ron Artest yanks on Pau’s hair during one particularly intense Rockets-Lakers confrontation.

28) Kevin McHale goes 1-62 as a coach. AND STILL KEEPS HIS JOB.

29) No, really: Jamal Crawford starts to play lockdown defense.

30) The Clippers wake up on the morning after the trade deadline and find that not only is Davis still clad in red and blue, but they also still employ Zach Randolph, Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

The level of the Warriors’ competition went up Thursday. The level of their winning went down.

And it’s very possible that’s going to become a familiar lament for Golden State in the next few weeks.

It’s a cliche to say that the Warriors, as the NBA’s youngest team, need to learn how to win. But it’s a fact that Detroit’s 107-102 win over Golden State is the fourth time out in six losses for the Warriors this season in which they’ve held the lead in the final six minutes and failed to hang on.

The image of the night? Warriors coach Don Nelson, draping his right hand on top of his head as he tried not to have his brain jump out of his skull with 3:10 remaining when C.J. Watson — jarred by the sight of an onrushing Allen Iverson — stepped inbounds before passing the ball in.

The costly turnover was followed by a back-breaking 3-pointer from Rasheed Wallace that gave Detroit a 96-92 lead with 3 minutes left, and the Warriors never drew closer than three points after that.

The Warriors dropped to 3-6 on the season, an especially disappointing mark when you consider that, given the relatively easy nature of their schedule to this point, they should have expected a 5-4 record at a minimum — games at New Jersey, at Memphis, vs. Memphis and vs. Minnesota were all good bets for a win, as was the Denver contest at home when the Nuggets were missing both Iverson and the man he was primarily traded for, Chauncey Billups.

Unfortunately, things get significantly more difficult between now and Dec. 17, when Monta Ellis’ suspension ends. There are two long road trips — which have never been the Warriors’ forte — and home games against a higher caliber of opponent.

One’s man’s guesses as to how the Warriors will fare over the next five weeks:

Saturday, at LA Clippers: TOSSUP
Tuesday, vs. Portland: LEAN LOSS
Nov. 21, vs. Chicago: LEAN WIN
Nov. 23, at Philadelphia: LEAN LOSS
Nov. 25, at Washington: LEAN WIN
Nov. 26, at Boston: SAFE LOSS
Nov. 28, at Cleveland: SAFE LOSS
Nov. 29, at New York: LEAN LOSS
Dec. 1, vs. Miami: LEAN WIN
Dec. 5, at Houston: SAFE LOSS
Dec. 6, at San Antonio: LEAN LOSS
Dec. 8, at Oklahoma City: LEAN WIN
Dec. 10, vs. Milwaukee: SAFE WIN
Dec. 12, vs. Houston: LEAN LOSS
Dec. 13, at Denver: LEAN LOSS
Dec. 15, vs. Orlando: LEAN LOSS
Dec. 17, at Indiana: TOSSUP

That’s 10 in the safe/lean loss category, five in the safe/lean win category and two tossups. If you split the tossup games, that’s going to be a 9-17 record for the Warriors by the time their biggest star is even allowed to play — and obviously there’s no guarantee Ellis will be back on Dec. 17; as first reported here, Ellis still has to have surgery to remove the hardware holding his deltoid ligament in place. That procedure is scheduled for Wednesday.

** Despite grabbing two steals and drawing a couple of charges, it was not a good night at the defensive end for Watson. He was torched with regularity by Iverson and made a crucial mistake on the first of Wallace’s back-to-back 3-pointers.

While responsible for the top right half of the Warriors’ 2-3 zone, Watson was caught up by a screen from Tayshaun Prince at the top of the key. That allowed Allen Iverson to locate a wide-open Wallace in the space that should have been covered by Watson, and Wallace drained the shot for a 93-92 lead.

** Watson also had his troubles as a playmaker. He finished with one assist versus four turnovers and failed to get the ball to a wide-open Anthony Morrow along the left wing in a 4-on-3 situation. (The pass tailed off towards the baseline, skimmed off Morrow’s left hand and went out of bounds.)

** Corey Maggette was less than stellar in his return from a four-game absence due to hamstring problems (2-for-7, team-worst -15). Rightly or no, he gives off that vibe of a guy who puts up enough numbers to keep things close, but never has the grit to single-handedly grab a win.

Also, it was interesting to note that on a transition possession midway through the first quarter, Prince was able to make up a good two or three steps on Maggette, turning what should have been a 3-on-2 fast break into a 3-on-3. That left Watson without an outlet when he got trapped in mid-air, and led to a Warriors turnover.

I don’t know if that was just sheer hustle on Prince’s part or if Maggette didn’t feel, in his heart of hearts, that he could safely go full speed on the hammy. If it was the latter, then he needs to sit; if it was the former, he needs to get it in gear next time.

** Maybe it’s just a coincidence, but in the two games where he’s played less than 44 minutes, Stephen Jackson has shot a combined 12-for-28 (42.9 percent). The rest of the time? He’s 55-for-147 (37.4 percent).

** Morrow is clearly supplanting Marco Belinelli as Nelson’s designated shooter of choice, making the cynical among us wonder when Belinelli will come down with back spasms of his own.

** Andris Biedrins should be catching the alley-oop passes, not throwing them.

** Watching Biedrins outhustling the relentlessly awful Kwame Brown for second-chance points: Not in the least bit surprising, but still very much amusing.

** Brandan Wright showed some nice recognition in the second quarter finding open seam for layup and three-point play after Prince left him to double Kelenna Azubuike, who was posting up ex-Warrior Will Bynum. I assume when Nelson talked about wanting to go smaller after Detroit went small with 6:43 left (Wallace at the 5, Prince at the 4), he would have brought Wright in at the 5 to take man-to-man duties against ‘Sheed.

I’m not convinced it would have worked any better, but in retrospect, it was worth a shot.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

[EDIT at 3:30 p.m.: I looked up and then forgot to list the team offensive efficiency stats from John Hollinger. The Warriors are 21st so far this season, averaging 85.0 points per 100 possessions. A year ago, they were third, at 96.6. Just another sign they need another facilitator to move the ball in the short term.]

It’s been a week now since Al Harrington put on his impassioned Elvis impersonation, and the Warriors seem no closer to moving their forward to happier climes.

In fact, I’m beginning to get convinced that Harrington and the Warriors might be stuck with each at least until Monta Ellis returns from his ankle surgery.

That fact was put into stark relief Monday when Joe Dumars struck almost without warning, collecting Allen Iverson from the Denver Nuggets in exchange for three players, most notably point guard Chauncey Billups.

Pulling the trigger on that deal was almost comically easy for Dumars, since it represents a victory in both the short and long views — the immediate effect is an upgrade from Billups to Iverson and a desired shakeup in the team’s culture, while the two-year plan is the opening of a slot for rising guard Rodney Stuckey.

For the Warriors, however, there do not appear to be any such no-brainer trades lurking out there by which Harrington can be set free.

That’s because Golden State’s short- and long-term goals cannot be easily resolved by any one player.

In the short term, it’s indisputable that the Warriors need help at the point guard position. DeMarcus Nelson, while a find as an undrafted rookie, is a raw, unfinished combo guard who’s not yet ready to be the primary playmaker on an NBA team. C.J. Watson is a score-first guy with flashes of occasional passing creativity, but not enough consistent ability to get past his man on the dribble. Stephen Jackson is too turnover-prone to be a full-time initiator. Marcus Williams has, for better or worse, been banished to irrelevancy.

But the whole point of signing Ellis to a six-year, $66 million deal was to make him the Warriors point guard of the future. (Admittedly, the timetable had to be moved up on that transformation once Baron Davis opted out, but Don Nelson has said consistently and pretty much from the moment he got here that Ellis would need to be a point guard to attain greatness in the NBA.)

So while someone such as Kirk Hinrich would be a tremendous upgrade over what the Warriors have on the floor right now, how do the pieces fit together when Ellis is healthy? Will Nelson sit either Jackson or Corey Maggette to get Hinrich on the floor? Does this mean Kelenna Azubuike can expect 4 minutes a night?

About the only way to get full value from Hinrich when Ellis returns is to play him at the 2, move Jackson back to the 3 and Maggette to the 4.

Unfortunately, that would be a disaster.

The small ball lineup of Davis/Jason Richardson/Jackson/Harrington couldn’t get out of the second round of the playoffs two seasons ago. And that group — especially when you consider how well Davis was playing in the spring of 2007 — is significantly better than what Ellis/Hinrich/Jackson/Maggette offers at this point in time.

Holding onto Harrington until Ellis returns gives the team options. If Warriors officials are convinced Ellis won’t return to his previous form and try to void his deal, then they can pull the trigger on a Harrington deal involving a permanent replacement at PG. If they like what they see from Ellis’ rehabilitation a month from now, then they can make a trade to shave further salary obligations off the books — such as Harrington and Marco Belinelli to Chicago for Drew Gooden (whose $7.1 million contract expires this summer) and Thabo Sefolosha.

This season has been star-crossed from the moment Davis informed the Warriors of his decision to decline $17.8 million in salary. Making a trade that solves one short-term problem while creating a longer-term logjam is not the solution.

– Geoff

The pairing of Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony is at an end, closing out a chapter in Denver basketball history that lasted less than two years and will be mostly remembered for its 1-8 record in playoff games.

So with Iverson moving east to Detroit in exchange for Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess, are the Nuggets getting over on the Pistons, or vice versa?

Well, the deal does fit the Nuggets’ biggest priority: Salary reduction.

The Nuggets save some $8 million in the short term; Billups ($11.1 million) and McDyess ($6.8) represent more than $4 million in savings over Iverson’s cost ($21.9 million), which is doubled because the Nuggets are — even with this cost-cutting move — slated to go several million over this season’s luxury-tax threshold of $71.15 million.

The deal could get even sweeter if the team is able to negotiate a favorable buyout with McDyess, who reportedly won’t play anywhere but Detroit.

But unlike Iverson and his soon-to-expire deal, Billups is on the books for another $25.2 million in ’09-’10 and ’10-’11 combined (there’s also a player option for $14.2 million in ’11-’12) and McDyess — unless a buyout is reached — will pull down $6.8 million next season.

So, in exchange for some short-term relief, the Nuggets have cast their lot with a 32-year-old point guard who has never led an up-tempo attack before in his life.

As Rod Tidwell told Jerry Maguire, “Well, this was another way to go.”

On the positive side, this deal means the Nuggets won’t have to play Anthony at power forward nearly as much, something I’ve advocated against. And it could very well make them better, at least for this season.

But does anyone really see a Billups-Anthony duo getting any farther in the Western Conference playoffs than the Iverson-Anthony-Marcus Camby trio did in 2007 and ’08?

No, me neither.

For the Pistons, this deal makes great sense, since Detroit — as I reported back in June for the Contra Costa Times — has been looking to get rid of Billups for months to clear the decks for Rodney Stuckey’s ascendency.

If the Pistons are able to re-sign a bought-out McDyess later on this season, that would make it pretty much a Billups-for-Iverson straight-up deal. (Yes, the Nuggets will also get young center Cheikh Samb, but that’s

If Iverson works out and leads Detroit back to the NBA Finals, the Pistons would love that, obviously. But even if he doesn’t, the Detroit is now going to be a player in the famous Summer of 2010 that almost every team is pointing to with glee.

This one goes down as a win for Joe Dumars.

(Oh, and from a fantasy perspective, if you have Iverson, you should try to trade him for Billups straight up right about now. Going from the slowest team in the league to the fastest can only increase Billups’ numbers across the board. Iverson, meanwhile, is going to experience a statistical weakening of undetermined proportions.

Excuse me for a moment while I try to salvage my team.)

– Geoff

Warriors forward Al Harrington is finally telling the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, apparently.

After claiming early Tuesday afternoon that he “wasn’t at that point” of demanding a trade, Harrington hours later did in fact march into executive vice president Chris Mullin’s office to demand a trade, according to his own testimony in other outlets.

Not much I can add to that. Obviously, my earlier report — while accurate in terms of quoting Harrington — was proven inaccurate because of the underlying deceit. Mea culpa.

One thing I will be asking Al later this morning is why he didn’t go public over the summer to try to force the Warriors’ hand. Doing it the day before the season makes him come off as the bad guy, his team-first claims notwithstanding; a concerted effort in June and July would have allowed him to hold the upper hand in the PR war at this point.

Until then, here are some possible trade partners and targets for the Warriors:

CHICAGO: Kirk Hinrich
He’s a superfluous hybrid guard on a team that also has Larry Hughes, Ben Gordon and No. 1 overall pick Derrick Rose. Of course, he’s also got $36.5 million remaining on a deal that runs through 2011-12, and a defensive pairing with Monta Ellis would be akin in some ways to laying a welcome mat to the hoop.

MEMPHIS: Javaris Crittenton
Long of arm but short on accomplishments, Crittendon is probably the biggest reach in this group, although there are other bonuses to be had: Because the Grizzlies have so much room under the salary cap, the cost-conscious Warriors don’t have to take any other contracts back, although Memphis will presumably try to foist a Marko Jaric or Greg Buckner on them.

CHARLOTTE: Raymond Felton
This might be the best fit of these choices. Not only is Felton available because of the presence of D.J. Augustin, but the Bobcats are desperate for frontcourt help because they chose Augustin over Brook Lopez, and don’t want to play Emeka Okafor out of position at power forward.

OKLAHOMA CITY: Earl Watson
Another situation where a highly touted rookie (Russell Westbrook) has been brought onboard, making Watson more sellable. With the addition of a second player to balance out the salaries, longtime potential Warrior Chris Wilcox could also be discussed.

ATLANTA: Speedy Claxton
When Josh Childress was still in the fold, there wasn’t that much need for Harrington in Atlanta. With Childress plying his trade in Greece, the Hawks suddenly have room alongside Marvin Williams and Josh Smith.

MILWAUKEE: Charlie Villanueva
Villanueva has been ticketed out of town ever since the Bucks added Joe Alexander and Richard Jefferson, and his game is everything Nelson wanted a reluctant Harrington to do. Would require a second player on the Bucks’ end to balance paychecks.

In the longshots category:

LA CLIPPERS: Cuttino Mobley
Mobley is standing in the way of rookie gunner Eric Gordon, and he’s another strong locker-room personality on a team that just added Baron Davis. The Clippers would also be able to plug Harrington in whenever Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman inevitably go down with injuries. (Oh, wait, they already are.)

NEW YORK: Stephon Marbury
Given that coach Mike D’Antoni runs the closest thing out there to what Nelson wants like to do in a perfect world, it seems absurd that the Warriors would want a luxury-tax monster like Steph — moody, intractable and crazy- not-in-a-good-way — whom Mike D has all but kicked to the curb.

DENVER: Allen Iverson
Hey, if the Warriors are really going to take on $21.9 million worth of expiring contract, they might as well get the highest quality $21.9 million worth of expiring contract. This, of course, is only an option if the Nuggets decide to blow everything up and start from scratch.

– Geoff