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The Warriors’ best local story of the season has come to an abrupt end: DeMarcus Nelson, the Oakland native and former Vallejo High star, was cut today to make room for forward Jermareo Davidson — a 2007 second-round pick of Golden State who was traded on draft day as part of the Jason Richardson-Brandan Wright deal — to be signed to a 10-day contract.

The move could save the team approximately $200,000, since Nelson’s contract wasn’t set to fully vest until Jan. 10. It would actually be an increase in salary outlay if the Warriors choose to keep Davidson, who can be signed to a second 10-day and then must be released or given a minimum-level contract for the remainder of the season. Since Davidson is a second-year player, a minimum-level deal for him from Jan. 25 on would cost roughly $350,000.

The 6-10 Davidson is averaging 16.1 points and 10.8 rebounds for the Idaho Stampede of the D-League this season. His presence gives Don Nelson another option at power forward, which has been a problem spot all year, especially so now that rookie Anthony Randolph has been “put on ice,” in the coach’s words.

– Geoff

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

Warriors forward Brandan Wright is 6-foot-10 and endowed with a 7-foot-3 3/4 wingspan that was just a half-inch short of matching that of the No. 1 pick in his draft class, Greg Oden.

So why is it that Wright can’t seem to put those tools to use fixing the Warriors’ recurring problems on the defensive glass?

I wrote a couple of weeks ago about the Warriors’ historically bad defensive rebounding rate (they’re on pace to post the league’s worst DRR since the 1999-2000 Mavericks) and Golden State has barely ticked the meter in seven games since then, upping their mark from 67.0 to 67.1 percent.

There has been some interesting individual movement, however, as charted here:

Marco Belinelli’s minus-1.8 drop is fairly staggering, but the most distressing item, if you’re a Warriors fan, a Warriors coach or, say, a second-year Warriors forward out of North Carolina, is the erosion of Wright’s defensive rebounding. He now ranks behind Ronny Turiaf (not a huge problem, given Ronny’s improvement of late) and even Corey Maggette, which is a blazing, 40-by-40-foot red flag, given how badly Maggette fared on the boards on his one healthy leg.

Shockingly, according to data at 82games.com, the Warriors are 4.1 percent worse at defensive rebounding with Wright on the floor (63.1 to 67.2). The only guy on the team with a worse differential than that is Turiaf (62.9 to 67.6).

The problem came back into focus after the Warriors were ripped yet again by opposing rebounders — this time for 14 offensive boards and 25 second-chance points by Oklahoma City a 107-100 victory Wednesday for the NBA’s worst team.

Jeff Green had five offensive boards, and Chris Wilcox had four. Wright, meanwhile, had just three defensive rebounds, and while part of that was due to a disparity in minutes — Green played 43:47, Wilcox 36:01 and Wright 19:58 — that’s not the whole story.

Here’s a collection of observations on the wrongs of Wright’s rebounding against OKC:

1, 11:17: Wright doesn’t get credit for one, but it sure looks like he blocks Green. In any case, the miss ticks off Wright’s right hand, although it’s eventually scooped up by Belinelli.

1, 10:08: Kevin Durant beats Belinelli to the R baseline, requiring Andris Biedrins to rotate over and close off the lane. When Biedrins leaves his man, Robert Swift, Wright is stationed about 10 feet from the hoop, looking over his left shoulder at the unfolding play while reaching out with his right hand to keep track of his cover, Green. Wright stays with Green, either by choice or by simply not recognizing that doing so allows Swift to walk in from the L baseline and tap home Durant’s miss.

1, 9:31: Desmond Mason back-irons a fading 15-footer from the L elbow. Wright elevates between two teammates to take the rebound with no Thunder pressuring the play.

1, 8:43: Russell Westbrook blows by Jamal Crawford then feeds Mason, who had cut past a completely inattentive Stephen Jackson on the right baseline. Mason’s reverse layup from the left side rims out and Wright, with Green hanging out at the 3-point arc, is free to go up and collect the easy board.

1, 6:53: Mason airballs a 19-footer under duress from Belinelli and Crawford catches it in mid-air. With Green again trolling the 3-point line, Wright plants himself in the lane. That said, Wright winds up a little closer to the hoop than he probably should, since he has his area well-covered and every step further in he takes at that point just increases the potential for a long board over his head to Green. (This becomes important later on.)

2, 7:27: Fresh off the bench, Wright provides good help to stop Wilcox’s drive on the left baseline. Ronny Turiaf recovers and slaps the shot off the backboard. Wright should have the ensuing rebound, but while he’s trying to corral it on the bounce, Westbrook gets a hand on the ball, which winds up going out of bounds off Wright for another Oklahoma City possession. The Thunder cash in with a jumper by Earl Watson.

2, 3:22: Watson misses a running right hook 6 feet out on the left side of the lane. Since Biedrins went to contest the shot, it’s up to Wright to outfight Wilcox for the board. Wright has the edge, but once again can’t control the ball, which bounces off his hands and fortuitously lands in Jackson’s instead.

2, 2:02: Watson misses a pullup J from 19 feet. But both Biedrins and Wright are heading to the rim when the shot, well short, clanks hard off the front iron and goes over their head to Wilcox, who pump fakes and blows by Biedrins for the layup.

2, 1:37: Wilcox biffs an open layup. Wright taps the ball off the rim, but when he tries to control it, Wilcox bats it away. The ball winds up going to Jackson.

3, 9:20: Durant misses a pullup 17 feet R wing. Wright has Green easily boxed out on the strong side, and when Durant’s shot comes back out on the R block, Wright has another unpressured board.

I know it’s a cliché to say that great rebounders latch onto a ball and never let go, but cliché’s are often just over-used truths. And that’s why the most concerning thing here is the number of times — four, in less than 20 minutes — Wright got a hand on the ball but was not able to come up with full possession. All the athleticism in the world doesn’t do you any good if you can’t close out the deal and finish a defensive stop for your team.

The Lineup Project

As bad as Wright’s rebounding was, the Warriors were still worse off without him on the floor, which was prompted in part because of Wright’s foul trouble (two in the first quarter, two more just 3:12 into the third period). Wright’s absence was all the more keenly felt because Don Nelson appears to have lost faith in Anthony Randolph after the rookie had two horrible turnovers in the first quarter against the Lakers. Since then, we haven’t seen him play a minute that mattered (he did come back for garbage time in Staples).

That left Nellie without many options, and he chose Kelenna Azubuike as his power forward for more than half the game (24:23) rather than use Turiaf there. Turiaf did make a cameo appearance at the 4, starting the fourth quarter up front with Biedrins, but that stint lasted less than 2 1/2 minutes — and Azubuike manned that spot the rest of the way.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

In 18 months as an NBA player, Marco Belinelli’s stock has gone through more roles than a TV character actor: Summer League star, Jason Richardson replacement, defensive sieve, bench ornament, unhappy camper, trade bait.

So is Belinelli’s latest turn — reborn playmaker — just another phase, destined to vanish like the next full moon?

It’s still too early to tell for certain, but in the 13 games since Don Nelson refocused the Warriors’ attack, Belinelli has already weathered one dip and ridden it out. I figured that after back-to-back poor performances in Florida — combined 7-for-24 shooting with four turnovers against five assists in Orlando and Miami — Belinelli’s run was at an end, and that he would go back to being a pumpkin, metaphorically speaking.

Instead, he had one of his two best games of the season in the Warriors’ 117-111 win over Toronto on Monday: 23 points, 6-12 FG, 5-8 3FG, 6-6 FT, 6 AST, 2 TO.

After that game, Warriors coach Don Nelson said Belinelli was succeeding in the team’s revamped, Euro-style offense — 47.5 FG, 40.0 3FG, 16.0 PPG, 3.3 APG — because “he’s a much better shooter on the move than he is stationary.”

I disagree. Belinelli has tamed the wild leg kick that used to punctuate his shooting motion, but he still often twists his lower body to the left when he fires while moving, both off the dribble and situations where he catches and shoots on a cut.

In the Toronto game, for example, Belinelli was 1-for-6 off dribble-drives, 1-for-2 while catching on the move, and 4-for-4 (three of those from deep) on standing shots. All three of those treys came on plays that began with Stephen Jackson driving and drawing multiple defenders, then kicking out, either directly to Belinelli or through an intermediary.

The bigger surprise on offense has been Belinelli’s emergence as a passer. He’s never going to be a straight point guard in the NBA, not unless he significantly upgrades his open-court ballhandling, but as a half-court initiator, he’s just a half-step behind Jackson and Jamal Crawford in terms of finding open shooters.

The style of Belinelli’s passing makes it seem as though he’s cavalierly throwing the ball around. Just as many Italians would find speech without the punctuation provided by their hand gestures to be unacceptably bland, Belinelli seems to use a two-handed chest pass only as a means of last resort. Witness Belinelli’s behind-the-back dish in the lane to Brandan Wright on the left baseline [1, 6:45] (there was no assist because Wright allowed Chris Bosh to erase the shot), or his one-handed whip pass to Andris Biedrins for a layup [3, 6:07]. That dish was zipped into a tiny opening created when Andrea Bargnani briefly lost eye contact with the ball and couldn’t quite recover in time.

At the defensive end, Belinelli is much improved from last year, when he looked timid on many occasions and, even more often, just befuddled. Belinelli is best utilized against a bigger player, rather than chasing a quicker man, although he did a credible job shadowing Rajon Rondo for some time in the Warriors’ win against Boston.

The one thing he’s doing spectacularly well at the defensive end is eliciting offensive fouls from players who don’t have the energy or willingness to deal with his peskiness.

Against Boston, he drew six offensive fouls:

1, 3:45: Tony Allen tries to come up from the right block while Leon Powe shuttles down from the elbow to switch places. Belinelli, who had been playing Allen on the high side, gets his right arm around Allen to prevent him from going wide, then falls over backwards as Allen extends his arms to get free, directly in front of referee Greg Willard. FOUL OR FLOP? Flop. Belinelli was moving backwards, not set, while impeding Allen’s movement.

3, 8:37: Ray Allen initiates from the top of the key with a pass to Kevin Garnett in the high right post, then loops left around a Powe pick. Belinelli does not slow in the slightest and caroms wildly off Powe to the ground, doing a 180 spin in midair. As before, this whole minidrama plays out practically in the lap of an official — this time, Leon Wood — who adjudicates in favor of Belinelli. FOUL OR FLOP? It may not be an outright flop, but it ain’t much of a foul, either. Belinelli made little attempt to avoid a pretty well-established screen. This probably should have been a no-call, but those (idiotically) no longer exist in this league.

3, 7:39: Ray Allen comes top-key right and faces the basket as Rondo initiates, with Belinelli standing chest-to-chest. As Allen tries to make a cut to his right without the ball, he uses his left arm to hook Belinelli in an attempt to create separation. FOUL OR FLOP? Foul, and an especially galling mistake given that Allen had a Kevin Garnett screen looming in the near future to rub out Belinelli.

4, 9:29: Tony Allen tries to ball-handle around a Paul Pierce screen at the left elbow. Pierce leans hard to his right to deliver the shoulder block to Belinelli, who once again ricochets hard in the opposite direction after contact. FOUL OR FLOP? Foul, because Pierce is leaning at about a 30-degree angle to deliver the shot. If he’d stayed vertical, it probably would have been a clean screen.

4, 5:29: A pure frustration foul on the part of Ray Allen, who is clearly bothered by Belinelli’s body contact while attempting to establish position on the left wing and flails with both arms to incur the whistle. FOUL OR FLOP? Foul.

4, 4:39: Kevin Garnett clocks Belinelli with another frustration reaction, although this one at least merits a whistle. FOUL OR FLOP? Foul. (Three minutes later, apparently unsatisfied, Garnett bodychecks Belinelli, a move that did not get called but pretty clearly should have been.)

Against the Lakers, Belinelli goaded Luke Walton into pushing off to create space. Against the Raptors, he just flat-out flopped for calls against Bargnani (attempting to post up Belinelli on a switch) and Bosh (trying to screen for Jason Kapono).

There have been plenty of comparisons drawn between Belinelli and Manu Ginobili, but aside from prominent noses, Italian heritage and one common move — driving down and across the lane from the right elbow with two giant steps to set up a floater from the left block — I don’t see it.

Ginobili is much more of a driver (his career FTA-per-minute rate is nearly three times that of Belinelli) and a far superior rebounder to Belinelli, who, in turn, is a more natural 3-point shooter (it took Ginobili five years to crack the 39-percent barrier on treys in the NBA; Belinelli shot 39.0 last season and is at 39.5 this year).

I would argue Belinelli is more in the mold of a Bruce Bowen or Derek Fisher, at least defensively: Someone who can get very handsy, willing to try to drive an opponent crazy, and then taking advantage by embellishing on the ensuing contact to draw offensive fouls.

I’m still not convinced that, once Monta Ellis gets healthy, Belinelli’s playing time won’t shrink. But he’s got the better part of another month, most likely, to prove me wrong.

The Lineup Project
It’s a triumphant return for smallball, which has finally passed up the “traditional” lineup in terms of YTD effectiveness. (The Small group is now minus-7.1 per 48 minutes; the Medium group is minus-8.1.)

Programming note
I’m going to a New Year’s Eve celebration, so there won’t be a live take on the Thunder game. I’ll check it out on tape and get back to you.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

OAKLAND — Warriors coach Don Nelson knew what other teams thought when they came into Oracle Arena.

“Not being able to win and not being able to do what we want in the fourth quarter . . . good teams figure they can beat us,” Nelson said.

With Stephen Jackson back, that no longer can be considered a safe assumption for Warriors opponents. Just ask the Boston Celtics after Jackson dropped 15 of his game-high 28 points on them in the fourth quarter of Golden State’s 99-89 win on Friday.

As mentioned in the live thread, this was the perfect setup for an underdog to knock off the Celtics: Not only was it the second half of an all-road back-to-back for Boston, but the Warriors also had 72 hours between games.

What tipped the scales, however, was Jackson’s return from a four-game absence to allow his sprained left hand — an injury that coincided with a brutal 26.9 percent shooting stretch (21-for-78) — to finally heal.

More specifically, it was Jackson’s fourth-quarter presence that made the difference. After a first-quarter individual showdown with Paul Pierce that ended in pretty much a draw (Jackson had 11 points, Pierce 13), Jackson disappeared in the second and third periods, shooting a combined 1-for-5 and committing five turnovers.

But there were signs of a recovery in the third. Jackson didn’t cough the ball up once in the final 17:45 of the second half. His one make came with the shot clock in single digits and against some tight defense from Pierce [3, 3:19]. And his specialty, the touch pass, led to an open 3-pointer for Marco Belinelli [3, 0:55.7].

When Jackson launched an ill-conceived drive down the lane, was blocked by Leon Powe and unleashed a frustration foul on Brian Scalabrine in the scramble for the rebound [4, 9:15], it seemed like Friday’s top storyline would be how the captain was still not fit for duty.

A layup off a crisp entry pass from Anthony Morrow got Jackson rolling [4, 8:42], and he didn’t stop the rest of the way.

The Warriors trailed by five before that bucket; they led by nine a little less than 4 1/2 minutes later, with Jackson scoring 13 of Golden State’s 18 points and assisting on three more — a trey from Kelenna Azubuike [4, 7:46].

Jackson drained a pair of 3-pointers of his own in that stretch, one with Pierce’s hand in his face on the left wing [4, 7:03], the other after getting sprung from a nice back pick by Belinelli [4, 5:32]. He undoubtedly got lucky when he rolled in a 10-foot fadeaway over Kevin Garnett to give the Warriors their first lead since less than 3 minutes into the game [4, 6:03], but Jackson is a guy who, frankly, makes his own luck sometimes.

I’d be fascinated to see what Jackson’s shooting percentage is on attempts where the Warriors are within five points of the opposition (either ahead or behind) in the second half. Anecdotally, I think it would be far higher than the 38.5 percent he’s put up as a whole this season.

The Lineup Project
Catching up after the Christmas holiday, we have three games’ worth of data and some new year-to-date numbers:

12/22/08: Magic 113, Warriors 81

12/23/08: Heat 96, Warriors 88

12/26/08: Warriors 99, Celtics 89

Year-to-date through 31 games (per 48 minutes)

Let’s give credit where it’s due: Without the performance of the Small group against Boston on Friday, the Warriors don’t even come close to mounting that comeback. Golden State was helped by Doc Rivers’ insistence on sticking with his own small group, despite the obvious fact that they were dog-tired and thus unable to hang with the hosts’ unit, but that shouldn’t detract from the quality of Warriors’ smallball-driven comeback.

With the blowout in Orlando and two other subpar performances, the Medium lineup (two bigs, not including any Turiaf-Biedrins pairings, plus three wings) has come back to Earth and the Smalls have gotten somewhat closer to the team totals (Golden State is averaging 103.7 ppg while giving up 109.5 for a delta of minus-5.8).

Monta’s return a month off?
Don Nelson said Friday that he didn’t expect injured guard Monta Ellis to play — or possibly even practice — for at least a month. I’ve heard Jan. 15 knocked around by members of the organization as a potential return time, but that’s been a very fluid date from the get-go.

Whenever Ellis does come back, it will be interesting to see how the Warriors’ standing in the standings factors into the decision.

As of today, it looks like a nine-team race for eight playoff spots in the West, with the Warriors already 9 games behind two teams tied for seventh: Dallas (17-12) and Utah (18-13).

On the other hand, Golden State is already 5 1/2 games behind Oklahoma City in the race for the other extreme — the worst record and corresponding highest concentration of pingpong balls in the 2009 draft lottery.

Twenty years ago, back when fantasy sports involved buying USA Today every Tuesday and crunching your own stats on a Mac SE (with a 30-meg hard drive!), one of the originators of the field — Dan Okrent, who would go on to become the New York Times’ first ombudsman, among other accomplishments in journalism — described a place he dubbed “The Fenokee Triangle,” where you’re never quite good enough to compete for the top spot, yet never bad enough to want to tear things down entirely.

It feels like the Warriors are at risk of once again taking up residence in the NBA’s version of that spot, winning too many games to grab an impact player, but not enough to be anything more than first-round fodder for the Lakers, Spurs or Hornets.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net

By Geoff Lepper
48minutes.net

Warriors coach Don Nelson has admitted on multiple occasions that his team’s small lineup couldn’t match up, talent-wise, with what the opposition put on the floor on a given night.

Against Charlotte on Saturday, that equation was flipped on its head: it was the Bobcats who couldn’t hang with the Warriors’ two-tower configuration of Andris Biedrins, Ronny Turiaf and three wing players.

For one 6 1/2-minute stretch in the third quarter, the Warriors outscored the Bobcats 23-6 using a lineup of Biedrins, Turiaf, Kelenna Azubuike, Jamal Crawford and Marco Belinelli (replaced near the end by C.J. Watson). That was the turning point in Golden State’s 110-103 win; the stretch ended with the Warriors up 81-69, and Charlotte never got closer than five points after that.

The Turiaf-Biedrins lineup played a total of 10:37 on Saturday, after getting some (less successful) run against the Atlanta Hawks on Friday:

Those two games represent the fifth- and sixth-highest total of playing for the Turiaf-Biedrins configuration this season, and you have to wonder how much of that is due to any added influence has gained Keith Smart as the team’s defensive coordinator.

Smart has no problem using the young bigs — recall the game in Houston when Brandan Wright didn’t sniff a second of playing time until Nelson was ejected, and then Smart brought in Wright almost immediately, helping spark one of the team’s only decent stints on the evening — and dumping small ball when necessary.

Of course, it might just be simpler than that. During most of the 23-6 stretch, Charlotte’s Larry Brown, who never met a 12-year veteran he didn’t like, was trying to get by with Juwan Howard at the 4 alongside Emeka Okafor, and the Warriors pinpointed that spot as something to exploit.

Howard was overmatched by Turiaf at both ends of the floor; in 12 offensive possessions, the Warriors ran their screen-roll with Turiaf as the big four times, scoring a total of eight points on those plays. Turiaf also handed off the ball twice in the high post to a curling Crawford, who knocked down an open 3-pointer off one of them with 5:17 left in the third.

There are distinct differences in the Warriors’ S/R with Turiaf as the screener versus Biedrins. Since Turiaf’s own offensive arsenal features much more mid-range jumpers (as opposed to Biedrins’ game, which is much more based on rolling through the lane), he’s able to sell out more thoroughly on his screens and thus more often force the defense to switch.

For example: Early in Saturday’s run, Turiaf wiped out Gerald Wallace, causing Boris Diaw to pick up Belinelli, and the Italian blew by him for a circus shot layup and free throw [8:14]. (The foul was Diaw’s fourth, forcing him to the bench and bringing Howard to the court.) The next time downcourt, Turiaf barred passage for Raja Bell, allowing Belinelli to slip free from Howard and feed Azubuike for an open 3-pointer in the left corner [7:35].

Once, Turiaf even got the benefit of the screen without having to even set the thing. The Warriors positioned a pair of bookends at the top of the key for Crawford’s use, with Biedrins on the left and Turiaf the right. Crawford ducked right and — even though Turiaf slipped the screen and traipsed down the lane — Howard was late in reacting and could not get out of the way of Raymond Felton. Crawford took advantage of the opening to dart past the ineffective help of Wallace and kissed a layup off the glass [5:58].

Turiaf also helped on plays where he wasn’t involved. When Azubuike rubbed Wallace off a Biedrins pick and missed an 18-footer, Turiaf collected the offensive rebound and fed Azubuike for the wide-open 3-pointer [4:25]. (Wallace, who had been sucked into the lane on the first shot, could barely be bothered to wave like he was going to close out on the trey.)

Defensively, Turiaf provided much-needed weakside help to cover Biedrins’ back when he would try to shut down the lane– a key fix given that the Warriors’ wing defenders are, to a man, seemingly unable to stop penetration. An example: Felton shook free from Crawford and took a lob while moving down the left block. Biedrins slid across to take away the baseline, so Felton fed the ball to the now-uncovered Okafor.

It’s a play that Warriors fans have seen time and again all season long, ending in a layup or dunk. Except this time, Turiaf came off his man and delivered a block on Okafor.

The other thing that made the Turiaf-Biedrins pairing a success was the work of Azubuike. Three times, he left his man at the 3-point line to come down and latch onto defensive boards during the stretch, as opposed to busting it downcourt and assuming that Turiaf or Biedrins was going to come up with the ball.

To me, that’s a sign of progress. The Warriors are not going to outrun anyone, not in their present Monta-less state (in fact, the only fast-break points of the 23 came when Azubuike ducked down for a board and then drove the length of the court before getting fouled by Wallace at the rim). It’s better for them to plug the gaping hole in terms of second-chance points than try to prop up a fast break that’s on life support.

We’ll see, moving forward, if Nelson agrees.

Contact: geofflepper@48minutes.net