Larry Riley makes it clear: Prepare yourself for life after Anthony Randolph
By Geoff Lepper
I’m not sure if Anthony Randolph rents or owns his in-season home here in the Bay Area, so I don’t know which piece of advice to give him. It’s either:
a) Call your landlord and find out what you need to do to ensure to get your security deposit back.
b) Call a good real-estate agent and get started on staging that sucker, because with this market, it could take months to sell.
Whatever is the case, it appears obvious from general manager Larry Riley’s comments Saturday night that Randolph is on the block and that the Warriors expect to give up the second-year forward in the near future.
I was working the Oklahoma City locker room prior to Saturday’s game, so I didn’t have a chance to join the Warriors’ beat writers in quizzing Riley about his decision to keep former D-League big man Anthony Tolliver at the cost of releasing Speedy Claxton and his $5.2 million expiring contract, less than two weeks before the NBA trade deadline.
Marcus Thompson II came through with a full transcript, however, and it makes fascinating reading, especially with regards to Randolph’s future. Here’s the critical passage, with regards to Randolph:
Q: Will you have to trade one of your four highest-paid players?
We’re not trading Monta Ellis, and we’re not trading Stephen Curry. And if we have to trade some of the other players, we’re going to look at it. It’s very difficult to take what we have and trade for a star. So we have to trade for a good player and get some help for our team. There will be somebody who (we) will probably trade that the fan base won’t necessarily like. … We do have to move a guy. We do have to move a guy to get where we want to go.
The emphasis is mine, because it’s the crux of the matter. Who else qualifies as a fan favorite, if you’re excluding Ellis and Curry? I suppose you could make a case for Andris Biedrins, but he still has a relatively large amount of cash left on his deal (especially with salary Armageddon coming up with the new CBA negotiations) and thus is not as attractive, IMHO, to other teams.
If it isn’t Biedrins, the only other logical inference is that it’s Randolph, whose tantalizing talent has stoked the fans’ ardor but who has lacked the consistency to generate the same feelings from the coaching staff. The only thing missing here is a “FOR SALE” advertisement on the billboard next to the Arena along 880: “Slightly used power forward, not yet able to legally drink, still growing into his frame, able to leap tall buildings in a single bound, fixer-upper jump shot. Want unprotected first-round pick, Caron Butler, OBO. Call L. Riley at 510-GSW-HOOP.”
The other aspect in the Randolph-is-leaving theory is that, without Claxton’s cash, the Warriors have only $6.85 million left in expirings (that’s the combined total of Raja Bell and Devean George; Chris Hunter and Anthony Tolliver are also technically expiring deals, but since they aren’t eligible to be traded until after the deadline, they’re worthless right now). For Golden State to make a play for a $10-$12 million player (such as Butler) is almost certainly going to require the inclusion of a legitimate asset to make up the salary-cap balance. If it’s not Ellis and Curry … hello again, Anthony Randolph.
We’ve been over this ground before, but I’ll reiterate: To me, dealing Randolph would be a mistake. I understand the argument — as promulgated recently by Bruce Jenkins — that a star is a star is a star, from the moment they hit the ground in this league (“ready to deal the cards right now,” as Bruce put it). But Randolph is still the SECOND-YOUNGEST PLAYER IN THE LEAGUE. He improved most of his numbers from his rookie season, and his field-goal percentage — one of my biggest concerns for me — ramped up every month until his season-ending high ankle sprain.
It might very well turn out that Randolph never becomes Josh Smith, which is my top end for him. But his trade value has been driven into the ground by a combination of factors over these last 18 months, some of them Randolph’s fault and more of them the result of the team’s vacillations and eccentricities. Shipping him out at this point, practically as a throw-in, would be the worst-case scenario.
The Warriors would be better served to keep Randolph until next season begins and salvage something out of the situation. But if I’m Anthony, I’d keep those real-estate contacts on speed dial.
28 Responses to “Larry Riley makes it clear: Prepare yourself for life after Anthony Randolph”
i guess that Bruce Jenkins guy has 2 good eyes also:
“[Ellis] hasn’t given Curry a hint of positive body language all season, and most of the time, he acts as if the rookie isn’t even on the floor.”
Twinkie defense February 7th, 2010 at 5:58 pm
When I saw that I assumed it was Biedrins he was talking about. Goose is beloved by the fans and really the casual fan doesn’t know much about Randolph at this point.
slamdunk February 7th, 2010 at 10:20 pm
Riley probably wants to trade Randolph because his drinking buddy Nelson does not want him around. This is turning into another Chris Weber situation where Cohan/Rowell will have to decide which side to take. We already lived thru this nightmare, run Nelson and Riley out of town right now, along with Rowell.
Randolph for Butler is a decent deal.
One is proven, the other is a kid who sunk to #14 on draft day for a reason. Also, we have Nelson as a coach. Butler is a better fit.
Randolph reminds me a bit of Tyrus Thomas. Not as angry and acting out as much but more so than a top player would behave, even at this young age. yeah he’s young but that’s also a risk he’s not develop.
Butler sunk to #10 on draft night and he was pissed. He’s since proven himself whereas Randolph hasn’t.
There’s enough written to suggest Butler wants out of DC. He’d be happy to leave Agent Zero behind. It’s a chance to get a good veteran. Not all trades without youth movement are bad.
BTW I think Ellis and Curry together is a bad idea.
Isn’t C.J. Watson also an expiring $1M contract?
I could actually see a team interested in him, either as depth for the playoffs or as a backup for a young PG.
He’d be worth a high second rounder easily at minimum.
Why trade for CJ, give up something, when he can be had for free in the FA market?
ron redwoods February 8th, 2010 at 11:40 am
naturally,the Warriors are in the usual lemming frenzy to wreck a good plan before half the suits on this sitcom even realize a plan exists.
Obviously, you trade off Vlad if you can get much of anything (unlikely)
Trading for Butler when Butler is having such a bad year he can’t carry Maggette’s jock? Brilliant. So……that’s about $24 mill in 3 SF’s,Maggette, Butler,Azubuike….and it’s the LOW $ guy in the group who’s got long term future.
Meanwhile,we hope the One Armed Bandit actually can PLAY. We still are not sure if hes good but the PF competition being Vlad ( not good) Tolliver (good half the time) would leave B Wright the frontrunner.
Remember the game AR had where he beat Dwight Howard,playing man to man as a center? Remember the game Randolph had 7 shotblocks…at the HALF?
Send the W’s front office a note and a sketch,they sleep through the games,so they missed that. Nellie…thinks Butler will be perfect as the starting Center
you make no moves based on Nelson’s “coaching style.” i think we’ve all acclimated to yet another sh*tty year. it’s what we do. i don’t even go away mad anymore. if you’re going to be better, it’s not coming to fruition during Nelson’s tenure. he can not be a factor in decisions. Butler’s too damn smart/head strong anyway. Randolph’s currently just head strong.
Geoff: You’re right about AR, of course. And that just shows what a bunch of losers we have running this team (into the ground).
petaluman February 8th, 2010 at 1:49 pm
I’m not buying this at all. Although you could turn out to be right, I don’t see anything that makes it “clear” they want to trade AR. Riley ruled out trading only 2 players. There are many logical errors in your theory, but the most obvious is that your proposed package results in the other team getting 2 players still recovering from significant injuries, meaning that they would initially have traded a 10-14M player for Devean George. On top of that, roster size limitations would probably require that they include at least 1 more player.
With a little thought, I’m sure you could write a better article about our trade possibilities than this.
None of the Warriors actions over the past year (dumping Jamal Crawford for expirings, dumping Stephen Jackson for expirings, dumping Marco Bellinelli for expirings) would suggest that the Warriors are even remotely interested in using contracts or talent to acquire an impact player. AR, Curry and BWright meet two very important criteria; they are players with upside (re: ticket sales) and manageable contracts. If you want to know what the Warriors are really up to nowadays, just follow the money my friend.
whatta ya give me for: Vlad in street clothes & my Physics GSI at Cal freshman year
I don’t know if Riley is referring to either Biedrins or Randolph, but it should be clear that one of them probably has to go — not necessarily because either one of them is awful, but because GS obviously needs a stronger, more physical front line to be more competitive.
This is particularly true if you’re going with a backcourt of Curry and Ellis. A small backcourt isn’t fatal in itself (Dallas made the NBA finals with Jason Terry and Devin Harris), but you can’t have a small backcourt *and* a thin, frail front line if you ever plan to compete.
Is Biedrins thin and frail? I mean is he that much different that Noah, the Bulls center? I don’t think Biedrins is a poor fir for the warriors except for him not being able to to hit a 8 ft jumper.
homer simpson February 9th, 2010 at 9:49 pm
yes they are different. based on 82games.com’s #’s, per 48 minutes, Noah out-rebounds the C he’s playing against by +4.1 rebounds. meanwhile Andris is out-rebounded by the C’s he’s up against by -0.9 (which (small consolation prize) does happen to be the best on the W’s at C this season).
opposing C’s have put up a TS% (true shooting %) of 53.4% vs Noah as of 2/3/10 this season. meanwhile, opposing C’s have put up a TS% of 61.4% vs Andris this season.
Andris also tends to foul a lot more this year and draw fewer fouls on the opposing C this season.
Even Andris’s best years 06-07 & 07-08 where opponents gave up 56.7% & 56.4% TS%’s while out-rebounding the opposing C by +1.2 & +1.8 per 48 min don’t stack up to Noah. Btw, last year Andris gave up 59.6% TS% to opposing C’s, but did out-rebound them by +1.9 per 48 min.
(League avg TS% is roughly 54%).
homer simpson February 9th, 2010 at 9:51 pm
whoops, last paragraph should read “put up 56.7%…..” not “gave up”.
petaluman February 10th, 2010 at 6:49 pm
Whether you’re an AB fan or not, trading away Andris will not improve the team at center. The only 5s likely to be traded at higher salaries are expiring deals and past their prime (like Z and Damp). Trading AB for 2 cheaper contracts means either we have 1 less 5, or that the other team is doing the trade to improve themselves at center.
All the injuries really hamper our trade options. Teams looking to improve right now want someone ready to contribute. Also, we don’t have much depth at any position to trade away. It’s likely we won’t be able to pull off the significant trade (10-14M player) that Riley is talking about by the trade deadline.
FWIW, here are all the current players in the NBA paid between 10-14M, according to DraftExpress. Are there any players on this list that you think are (1) available to be traded, (2) attractive to us, and (3) on teams that would benefit from a similarly priced package of Warriors?
Chris Paul $13,758,000
Deron Williams $13,758,000
Larry Hughes $13,655,268
Peja Stojakovic $13,392,000
Jason Richardson $13,333,332
Steve Nash $13,125,000
Tony Parker $12,600,000
Andrew Bynum $12,500,000
Carlos Boozer $12,323,900
Tyson Chandler $12,300,000
Brad Miller $12,250,000
Andre Iguodala $12,200,000
Erick Dampier $12,115,500
Baron Davis $12,100,000
Chauncey Billups $12,100,000
Samuel Dalembert $12,025,694
Al Jefferson $12,000,000
Antawn Jamison $11,641,095
Richard Hamilton $11,625,000
Zydrunas Ilgauskas $11,541,074
Ben Wallace $11,306,455
Troy Murphy $11,047,619
Monta Ellis $11,000,000
Josh Howard $10,890,000
Josh Smith $10,800,000
Manu Ginobili $10,728,130
Bobby Simmons $10,560,000
Nene Hilario $10,520,000
Eddy Curry $10,500,423
Emeka Okafor $10,497,500
Chris Kaman $10,400,000
Luol Deng $10,365,000
Tayshaun Prince $10,324,380
Danny Granger $10,130,500
Caron Butler $10,030,970
Al Harrington $10,026,875
Ben Gordon $10,000,000
Andrew Bogut $10,000,000
Hey Geoff: Still around. Curry’s game last night got your tongue?
Maybe it’s time finally to re-think your position on the kid. Better late than never.
P.S. to Petaluman: That list is scary! The only ones I see worth their salt are CP3, and maybe DWilliams and Al Jefferson and Deng. NONE of the others is worth the money. And that’s a lot of over-paid cats!
Thanks for the work and analysis.
Noah’s now the better center, GSW victory not withstanding, but the stats tell us more about where they play.
Beans doesn’t have the same team defense that helps Noah stay out of foul trouble. He also doesn’t play alongside a true PF like Taj Gibson and Vinny also plays Brad Miller alongside Noah. That’s size and post help Beans doesn’t get.
Tyrus Thomas is on the bench for his defensive lapses. Nelson would not do that. So any center playing here would have more fouls/min because he’s trying to stop guys who got by their man. He’d he’d have far less help in the post. Again Taj Gibson boxes out, plays team defense and gets his points on clean up. Noah’s got help.
Noah’s the better player now but physically Beans isn’t too skinny compared to Noah. He’s a decent value at center. When Noah signs his next contract, he’ll cost far more than Beans.
What’s missing from Homer’s analysis is help defense… Biedrins does a lot more of it than Noah, and the numbers bear this out.
Biedrins is having his worst defensive season, and the Warriors give up 3.2 more points per 100 possessions when he plays than when he doesn’t. But the Bulls gives up 4.1 more points per 100 possessions when Noah plays than when he doesn’t. The Warriors’ (additional) defensive struggles with Biedrins are due primarily to their great tendency to foul when he’s win. The Bulls’ defensive struggles with Noah are more fundamental: their opponents shoot better, record more assists and grab many more offensive rebounds.
Biedrins’s value has never rested in his shutting down opposing centers. It’s rested in slowing down opposing centers to some degree and bailing out his beaten teammates to some degree. He’s not a great defender, but he’s a better defender than simple opponent production stats suggest. And when he’s played alongside defensively capable fours — Al in ‘07-’08, Ronny in their limited time together last year — he’s rated as a solid defensive asset.
The Warriors’ organizational stupidity in these last two seasons has been galling, but it hasn’t yet cost the team any young players of real value; the idiocy of the present has not yet dimmed the potential of the future. If the Warriors trade either Randolph or Biedrins right now, when their perceived values are extremely low, they’ll be doing untold damage to the team’s potential to compete going forward. We can only pray that Riley, Nellie et al are removed from power before they’re able to do something that asinine.
petaluman February 13th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
Thanks for your response. Yeah, looking at the list of ALL 10-14M/year NBA players shows how difficult it can be to make a difference-making trade. The players break down into:
1) Worth it, with reasonable term left - these players only get traded if a team is having a fire sale, or they get an even better deal back
2) Past sale date (not earning their keep) - only valuable when contract is expiring; occasionally traded for other over-priced talent or a worse (longer) deal
3) Ending deals - if they’re worth keeping, they’re most likely to be re-signed, or traded in the off-season on a S&T. If not, they may be traded to a team trying to dump salary.
I’d split #2 (not earning their keep) into two sub categories:
Guys like Larry Hughes who demand major minutes and considerations commensurate with a high salary (even thought they ain’t worth it)
Players who maybe over paid but accept whatever team role they are assigned, like Loul Deng.
Anonymous February 16th, 2010 at 4:11 pm
i guess geoff got fired again….. bummer i love the news clips on the dubs
wow this place is retarded!
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