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    Betting on the Warriors’ final roster

    With only 12 players in camp holding guaranteed contracts — Kosta Perovic, we hardly knew ye — the Warriors’ roster competition is more wide-open than it’s been in years.

    There are 11 players who are locks, including Kelenna Azubuike, Andris Biedrins, Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson, Corey Maggette, Anthony Randolph, Ronny Turiaf, Marcus Williams and Brandan Wright. Monta Ellis is also on that list, unless the Warriors take the radical step of trying to void his contract over his Quadrophenia homage. I thought Marco Belinelli might not make it, but I’ll take Nelson — who looked truly surprised when I brought this up — at his word when he said the team will be picking up his third-year option. No point in doing that if the guy isn’t 100 percent safe for this season.

    Rookie Richard Hendrix is the other fully guaranteed player. He’s on a three-year deal (for purposes of retaining Bird rights if he is a diamond in the rough), but only this first season is guaranteed. At a cost of $442,114, I wouldn’t say he’s assured of a spot; remember, the Warriors ate significantly more (nearly $700,000) to rid themselves of Andre Owens and keep Matt Barnes two years ago.

    That means we’re looking at eight players fighting for four roster spots before the season begins on Oct. 29. Here’s one observer’s tote board as of Sunday morning:

    DeMarcus Nelson: 20-1. Great kid, solid defender, struggles with his shot. If you’re 7 feet tall, like Biedrins, you can get by with that skill set. Not if you’re 6-4, like Nelson.

    Rob Kurz: 15-1. Dropped from 30-1 with Nelson’s recent lavishing of praise. Nellie’s right: Kurz’s game is not always the most elegant thing, but apparently it is effective, a la Barnes. He did drain the game-winning 3-pointer in Thursday’s evening scrimmage, a fact I thought would be the highlight of his stay as a Warrior. We’ll see if Nelson’s comments were just a job reference, or a harbinger of something else.

    Dion Dowell: 10-1. Has a $50,000 partial guarantee, but is that enough of a reason to keep another 6-7 swingman?

    Justin Williams: 8-1. Provides some heft and shot-blocking behind Biedrins and Turiaf, but third-string centers never play much under Nelson, who will probably use Al Harrington there for those minutes instead. It might come down to an individual battle against Richard Hendrix for one spot.

    Anthony Morrow: 6-1. It’s tough to get a read here. With his range and accuracy, I thought he might push Belinelli, but if Belinelli is indeed safe, that’s immaterial. Either way, he won’t go home empty-handed; he has a $100,000 partial guarantee.

    Dan Dickau: 4-1. If the Warriors really are going to go with three point guards, as Nelson has said he wants, then it’s between Dickau and DeMarcus Nelson. Dickau is familiar with Don Nelson’s philosophies, having played for him in Dallas (if only briefly), and lends another bit of veteran presence to a team that only has three other players with more than three years of NBA experience.

    Richard Hendrix: 2-1. Although the Warriors are probably willing to cut him if Williams is demonstrably superior, Hendrix’s guaranteed money does give him the inside track.

    C.J. Watson: 1-3. It’s exceedingly hard to imagine a scenario in which he goes from starting the Warriors’ exhibition opener to hitting the unemployment line. Also has a $150,000 partial guarantee.

    – Geoff

8 Responses to “Betting on the Warriors’ final roster”

  1. Mylie10 October 5th, 2008 at 8:35 pm

    DeMarcus has a 6′10″ wingspan and is very athletic. He’s got good size at almost 6′4″ and has shown the ability to do a few different things. This team needs a PG defender on it, so my edge would go to him over Dickau.

    but in nellie’s world the veteran always gets the nod.

    Nothing against Dion Dowell, but his is a position that we have no need for. Jackson, Maggette, Azu, Harrington, and even Randolph are better options at the small forward slash 2 guard wing positions.

    Justin Williams blocked a couple of shots in his brief stint which won’t hurt him. If it’s between him or Hendrix on which one to keep, then I don’t have a preference. I just want them to play well. I like the idea of a bruising banger like Hendrix when we play these back-up PF’s around the league that give us trouble. But Justin Williams had some good minutes for both Sac and Houston and he’s got good size. Rob Kurz………..You’re out!

  2. 510 October 5th, 2008 at 9:42 pm

    Dickau is roster filler. He’s just not an NBA player. That said, neither is a 6′4 guy that couldn’t hit water from inside a paddleboat.

    Out of that list, here’s how I’d want them:

    1) Richard Hendrix
    2) Justin Williams
    3) Anthony Morrow
    4) Rob Kurz (I’m a softie for anyone with a huge motor)
    5) CJ Disaster
    6) DeMarcus Nelson
    7) Dion Dowell (what do we need him for? What does he bring to the table?)
    8) Dan Dickau

    I don’t care if we only start the season with 1 PG on the roster ( lol @ you if you think Disaster is a PG in anything but size only ), but I dont want them to cut someone with NBA potential because of needing a PG… What are we even playing for this year? We should be trying to find role players for the next couple seasons. Hendrix, Justin Williams, and Morrow fit in that type of mold. Nelson, Watson, Dowell and Kurz are a step below them.

    Dickau had signed with the Italian League champs of 08… really, really wish he would have stayed. He has no business on an NBA roster.

  3. silk October 6th, 2008 at 6:47 am

    Dan Dickau is turrible…

  4. petaluman October 6th, 2008 at 11:09 am

    DD has played over 4600 minutes in 6 years in the league. Apparently not all NBA teams agree that he doesn’t belong there. Can anyone even name one that’s started a season with only 1 PG on their roster?

    However, Dan is 30 years old and has reached his potential. He’s a career back-up, at best a stop-gap starter. Both CJ and MW are still seeking their level, and are 6 and 8 years younger, respectively. He’s not likely to jump over either of them in the depth chart.

    There will be games where they struggle or are out, and he’ll get those minutes. When Monta returns, he’ll probably be waived. I wouldn’t be surprised if another team picked him up - there are always teams looking for a reliable back-up PG.

  5. monsta October 6th, 2008 at 11:34 am

    Does CJ stand for Can’t Jump?

    I don’t know, seems like he might as well be named CS. There’s a reason he has this reputation as a pass-first guy cuz he Can’t Shoot.

    He’s small, though, I’ll give him that.

  6. Jonathan October 6th, 2008 at 12:42 pm

    We’ll likely see CJ’s skills now that Baron won’t be dominating the offense anymore. In the NBDL he was a scorer… he should be less passive (trying to fit in with the team) and more aggressive on offense this year.

    I’d love to keep Williams around… GS was in the market for a hustle player (they had Amundson in camp, who signed a guaranteed deal with the Suns), but I’d be suprised if they waived Hendrix to keep him. In the limited minutes that Hendrix played in SLC, he put up some numbers.

  7. gswfan4ever October 6th, 2008 at 1:30 pm

    CJ, Marcus, and Jax will be the team’s 3 headed PG until Monta returns. chance that either Dickau/Demarcus make the team is 150-1

    Dowell’s chance is 500-1, that makes him the least likely candidate to make the team.

  8. petaluman October 6th, 2008 at 2:47 pm

    I’m not a betting man, but if I were, I’d put $10 on Dickau at those odds. With Jackson at PG, we’d have no fast break. We may use him to bring up the ball when the defense is already back or to initiate the half court offense, but We’ll still have a real PG on the floor.

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